Playing Fact or Fiction with All of MLB's Hottest Pre-Winter Meetings Buzz
If Major League Baseball's hot stove isn't yet at a full boil, it soon will be, what with the annual rumor-and-speculation fest that is the winter meetings, which get underway Sunday, Dec. 7, in San Diego.
In the past week alone, there have been a pair of big-money deals for free agents Nelson Cruz with the Seattle Mariners and Nick Markakis with the Atlanta Braves, as well as the surprising swap between the Oakland Athletics and Toronto Blue Jays involving Josh Donaldson.
And the action—or, at least, the potential for action—should only pick up as representatives for all 30 teams congregate in one location to talk shop.
As such, there's already plenty of chatter and hearsay, some of which can be believed—and some of which cannot.
In the hours leading up to the winter meetings, let's run through a batch of the hottest rumors and play a little fact or fiction.
Rumor: The Braves Are Going to Trade at Least One More Outfielder
1 of 5Having already moved Jason Heyward and agreed to terms with Markakis, who will replace the former homegrown Brave in right field, Atlanta appears to be on the verge of making another transaction—maybe even two—involving an outfielder, as Mark Bowman of MLB.com writes.
With the club expected to shift Evan Gattis from catcher to left field, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post, and Justin Upton also locked into a corner outfield position, there no longer is enough room to play all three.
The Braves also would like nothing more than to move as much of the remaining $46 million on B.J. Upton's contract as a trade partner will accept. Of course, making B.J. go away likely would require Atlanta to part with Justin Upton or Gattis in the same trade.
Then there's the fact that Justin Upton is a free agent after 2015, making him perhaps the most tradable trade chip in baseball at the moment. On one hand, he doesn't really fit with the Braves either on the field or in the budget; on the other, his right-handed power is a premium commodity, even for just one year.
Verdict: Fact. Something is going to give and someone is going to go, whether it's Justin Upton or Gattis (or even somehow B.J. Upton).
Rumor: The Dodgers Won't Be Able to Trade Their High-Priced Outfielders
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Speaking of teams with too many outfielders, the Los Angeles Dodgers seem to be collecting 'em these days.
Following the mid-week trade of right-hander Matt Magill to the Cincinnati Reds for Chris Heisey, the Dodgers now have at least seven players who could be on their 25-man roster as outfielders next April. They are (inhale here): Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier, Scott Van Slyke, Heisey and rookie Joc Pederson (and exhale).
This is especially cumbersome in the National League, where the designated hitter doesn't exist, which is why new president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman called trading one (or more) from the above group "the best course of action" in November, via Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. And again, that was before the Heisey acquisition.
Thing is, the Dodgers appear to be finding that moving one of their high-salaried outfielders—namely, Kemp, Crawford and/or Ethier—is a bit of a challenge given all the money they're owed.
"Matt Kemp is owed $107 million over five years, Carl Crawford $62.25 million over three and Andre Ethier $56 million over three, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts," writes Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports.
Given Kemp's strong second-half production in 2014, he is the most marketable piece and has suitors, as Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports. Of Course, Kemp also is the most expensive. It's all but guaranteed that if one of Kemp, Crawford or Ethier winds up getting jettisoned, LA would have to pay a large portion of his salary.
Here's Gurnick's take on Friedman's to-do list over the next week: "The Dodgers are expected to use the winter meetings to finally move [an] 'extra' outfielder while looking for a short-term shortstop placeholder between [Hanley] Ramirez and Corey Seager, the can't-miss 20-year-old prospect."
Verdict: Fiction, if only because it's actually not healthy for the Dodgers to have this many outfielders on the roster.
Rumor: Phillies Ace Cole Hamels Will Be Traded
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There may be change brewing at the top of the Philadelphia Phillies organization, which could have an impact on what happens to some of the big-name players the club has been hesitant to unload despite popular belief that it would be better off doing so.
Team president David Montgomery, on medical leave since late last season after undergoing surgery to address jaw bone cancer surgery in May, soon may be out officially, according to Howard Eskin of 94 WIP radio (via CBS Philly), who also offers that a trade of ace left-hander Cole Hamels is looking more and more likely.
The organization followed up to Eskin's report by issuing a statement that "no decision has been made yet" on Montgomery's future with the team.
With Pat Gillick having taken over duties as acting president in charge of baseball operations, the front office is doing "extensive homework" on the Dodgers farm system, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, in advance of a possible deal built around Hamels and one or more of LA's top three prospects, Corey Seager, Julio Urias and Joc Pederson.
Look, it's been forever since folks started suggesting—imploring even—that general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. needs to undertake a full-blown rebuild of these aging Phillies, so this is firmly in believe-it-when-you-see-it territory.
But in the past, Montgomery has been a big reason why that hasn't happened yet, and there certainly seems to be a lot of smoke billowing, so this situation is worth following.
Verdict: Fiction, at least until the deep pitching market clears a little and Amaro's infamously steep asking price for Hamels comes down a notch.
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Rumor: The Mariners Have More Moves Up Their Sleeves
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While signing Cruz and his MLB-high 40 homers for $58 million over four years will help the Mariners lineup, Seattle general manager Jack Zduriencik still has work to do on that front.
Part of that is because after trading Michael Saunders to the Toronto Blue Jays for lefty J.A. Happ on Wednesday evening, per Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times, the M's suddenly have a little more pitching depth but could use another outfielder, as Larry Stone, also of The Seattle Times, notes.
Cruz, after all, is best used as a designated hitter in the batter's box rather than on large swaths of green grass.
If the M's want to upgrade in the outfield and/or add another bat, they have the pitching pieces to get something done. But they might be reluctant, depending on the price, as Greg Johns of MLB.com writes:
"Zduriencik is understandably reluctant to part with prized young arms Taijuan Walker and James Paxton and completely shot down any notion that veteran right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma is being shopped.
"There's no truth to that," he said. "I didn't have any substantive dialogue there. With Felix [Hernandez] and Iwakuma at the top and the other young guys we have, that's a formidable rotation."
"
Indeed, it is, but the lineup still has some holes, even with Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager and now Cruz in the heart of the order.
That's why it seems plausible Zduriencik could pull off a blockbuster trade by using one of Walker or Paxton.
One such possibility? The previously mentioned Matt Kemp, whom the Dodgers might consider swapping for one of those two power arms, according to Bob Dutton of The News Tribune in Seattle.
Another might be trading with the Colorado Rockies (Carlos Gonzalez?), as Jon Morosi of Fox Sports reports.
If the M's are going to do anything else major at this point, it's going to be for a bat. And it might have to be a trade rather than another big-budget free-agent signing, mainly because the payroll is adding up quickly, what with the large contracts for Cano, Hernandez, Seager and Cruz.
Verdict: Fact. Seattle is always in need of offense and has the pitching to spare.
Rumor: The Yankees' Interest in Andrew Miller Is Only a Ploy for Leverage
5 of 5The two hottest relievers on the free-agent market are David Robertson and Andrew Miller, and the New York Yankees are interested in both.
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that the Yankees are targeting the lefty Miller, perhaps even over Robertson, who has spent his seven-year career in New York and proved he could take over for Mariano Rivera as closer in 2014.
Meanwhile, Robertson has been linked to the Houston Astros, according to George King of the New York Post, and the right-hander may be using them as leverage to improve his market and/or get a better offer from the Yankees.
Question is: Which side's leverage against the other is stronger? Answer: the Yankees' side.
Remember, Robertson turned turned down New York's $15.3 million qualifying offer after the season, and the Yankees want the compensation draft pick they'd get if Robertson signs elsewhere. That also undercuts Robertson's ability to get full value in free agency.
Miller, on the other hand, costs only money but has no pick attached to him, as he was traded from the Boston Red Sox to the Baltimore Orioles midseason.
If the Yankees like Miller enough—that is to say, anywhere close to Robertson—then they would be wise to snatch him up and team him with 2014 revelation Dellin Betances, who could take over the ninth inning.
Depending on how Robertson's market shapes up—or doesn't—the Yankees always could go back to him with a low-ball offer, knowing full well that it might be tough for Robertson to get the big contract he's seeking.
Verdict: Fiction, because Miller is really good, and going after him instead of Robertson could net the aging Yankees an extra selection next June.
Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.
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