Bowl Predictions 2014: Projections for Playoff Matchups After Week 15 Rankings

One thing is certain at this point: No one really knows what the selection committee is going to do.

The penultimate college football playoff rankings were supposed to be simple. Mississippi State was the only team in the Top Six to lose. We assumed the teams immediately behind the Bulldogs would shift one spot upward, and that would be that.

Not quite. TCU, fresh off a 48-10 thrashing of Texas, became the third one-loss team to bunny-hop undefeated Florida State, which lumbered past a Florida team playing for a fired head coach.

"We feel they're an improving team. We watch these games, we evaluate these teams, we feel TCU is a better team [than Florida State] at this time," said Jeff Long, selection committee chairman, via Fox Sports' Stewart Mandel.

Could the Seminoles, the defending national champions, really go undefeated and miss out on the playoffs? Probably not, but they are suddenly much closer to that nightmare, and with conference championship week on the horizon, things could get wild.

College Football Playoff Rankings

Projected Semifinal Matchups

Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Florida State

Rose Bowl: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 TCU

The top two spots are simple. Alabama and Oregon have been at the mountaintop for several weeks now, and as long as they win their respective conference championships, there's no doubt they'll remain there.

Missouri is playing extremely well as of late, and Arizona already beat Oregon earlier in the season, but the Crimson Tide and the Ducks are simply the better teams. They'll win their conferences and finish at No. 1 and No. 2.

After that, things get a bit hazy.

It's probably safe to assume there will be one Big 12 team. Baylor is three spots behind TCU, but it has a huge potential resume-booster against No. 9 Kansas State remaining, while the Horned Frogs play 2-9 Iowa State. Should they both come out on top this weekend, they would share the conference title, with Baylor winning the lone head-to-head matchup.

Many people, such as The Oklahoman's Jason Kersey, believe that would be enough to vault the Bears past TCU:

But as Long explained, via ESPN's Jake Trotter and Joe Schad, the committee clearly doesn't agree:

Baylor has an opportunity to close the gap this weekend, but it's abundantly clear the committee values the Horned Frogs' entire body of work over their loss to the Bears. That doesn't seem likely to change, even if Baylor dismantles Kansas State.

Finally, we have Florida State.

The Seminoles haven't been impressive lately, and the committee is punishing them for that. But that's because Jimbo Fisher's squad has been narrowly beating mediocre teams. A win against No. 11 Georgia Tech—whether it's by a field goal or three touchdowns—will be enough to secure a playoff spot.