NFL Predictions Week 14: Upset Picks and Projections

We've become accustomed to seeing at least an upset or two each week over the course of the NFL season. After all, it's part of the nature of the game. However, while some bettors can see upsets from miles away, they can be blindsided by others.

Looking back at Week 13, we can see examples of both. The underdog Seattle Seahawks were playing way too well to lose to a San Francisco 49ers team that has been struggling to find its identity. That was an easy one. Although, while their offense hasn't been good, it was completely surprising to see the Arizona Cardinals defense completely fall apart in a loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Many bettors lost money on that one.

Week 14 does come equipped with a couple matchups that could comprise this week's batch of upset victories. Before we delve into some in-depth analysis on those contests, let's first take a look at the entire slate of games, their corresponding odds and picks against the spread for each.

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Dallas at Chicago	DAL -3.5	Cowboys	Dallas gets back on track, and Jay Cutler keeps throwing picks.
St. Louis at Washington	STL -2.5	Rams	St. Louis is looking extremely well-rounded of late.
Houston at Jacksonville	HOU -5.5	Texans	Houston's offense is on a roll, and Jacksonville's defense is very bad.
NY Giants at Tennessee	Even	Giants	New York wins by making one less mistake than Tennessee.
Tampa Bay at Detroit	DET -10	Lions	Tampa Bay may not score a single point.
Carolina at New Orleans	NO -10	Panthers	The Saints secondary will allow even a struggling Cam Newton to keep within 10 points.
Indianapolis at Cleveland	IND -3.5	Colts	It doesn't matter who's under center for Cleveland, he's no Andrew Luck.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati	CIN -3	Steelers	Expect an extremely close AFC North slugfest won by less than three points.
NY Jets at Minnesota	MIN -7	Jets	There won't be enough points produced by either team to warrant a seven-point spread.
Baltimore at Miami	MIA -2.5	Ravens	See analysis below.
Kansas City at Arizona	AZ -1.5	Chiefs	See analysis below.
Buffalo at Denver	DEN -10	Bills	Buffalo's stout defense will keep it in the game against Denver.
San Francisco at Oakland	SF -8	Raiders	It's tough to see the 49ers win by more than one score against anyone right now.
Seattle at Philadelphia	Even	Seahawks	Seattle's defense is better, and that will be enough to come away with a big road win.
New England at San Diego	NE -3.5	Patriots	Tom Brady defeats Philip Rivers in a shootout due to San Diego's impaired secondary.
Atlanta at Green Bay	GB -12	Packers	Aaron Rodgers is 4-2 against the spread at Lambeau Field this season.

All game odds courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of December 2.

Top Week 14 Upsets

Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) at Miami Dolphins

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While Miami was the team to notch a Week 13 victory, Baltimore delivered the more impressive overall performance. If these two teams compete in the same manner this week, the Ravens will come away with a big road victory.

In all seriousness, the Dolphins should have pummeled the New York Jets on Monday Night Football. That game shouldn't have even been close. Instead, a hapless Miami offense was forced to score 10 fourth-quarter points to complete a comeback win.

Miami couldn't produce many big plays on the offensive side of the ball, the longest of the game was a pair of 25-yard passes. ESPN's James Walker tweeted one big reason why:

Meanwhile, the team gave up on the run despite Lamar Miller's average of 4.3 yards per carry. Those traits work perfectly in the favor of Baltimore's defense.

The Ravens are ranked fourth in the league against the run, and we should expect Miller to be given a tough time on the ground. This will allow Baltimore to sit back and concentrate on taking away the big passing plays, limiting Miami's chances of getting over the top of the defense. After all, that's how the San Diego Chargers were able to defeat the Ravens in Week 13.

While Baltimore is stifling Miami's offense, it can unleash Justin Forsett on the Dolphins' 21st-ranked run defense. Forsett is averaging an impressive 5.6 yards per carry this season, and he has the ability to wear down the Dolphins defense, forcing it to sell out on the run and keeping quarterback Joe Flacco out of harm's way in the process.

Prediction: Ravens 27, Dolphins 24

Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

The Cardinals better watch out because this is a matchup that strongly favors the Chiefs.

Arizona's offense hasn't been able to get its running game going, carrying just 11 times for 35 yards in Week 13 against a porous Atlanta Falcons defense. That works out quite well for a Chiefs defense that ranks just 30th against the run. The Cardinals feature an inconsistent, inaccurate quarterback in Drew Stanton, and Kansas City's first-ranked pass defense will feast on his mistakes.

On the other side of the coin, Arizona has a stout run defense, ranking sixth in the league, but it will have its hands full against the talented Jamaal Charles. Meanwhile, the Cardinals' 27th-ranked secondary is reeling and will be without Tyrann Mathieu, according to Darren Urban of AZCardinals.com:

That injury just adds to the Cardinals' laundry list of walking wounded and opens up the door for Alex Smith and Co. for a small amount of aerial success.

There will not be many points scored by either team in this contest; however, Kansas City is more efficient and careful with the football, while Stanton has thrown five interceptions over the last three games. If he keeps up that trend, Kansas City will get plenty of short fields and take full advantage.

Prediction: Chiefs 20, Cardinals 17