College Football Playoff Championship 2015: Predictions, Odds for All Matchups
A week is all that separates the globe from the revelation of which teams will participate in the inaugural College Football Playoff.
From the ashes of a wild Week 14, in which contenders such as Mississippi State suffered major losses, rise four teams that appear to be the favorites to make the CFP—for the time being, of course.
The four teams will be selected by the committee based on a number of variables, but keep in mind that conference championships will alter the current outlook. All four will compete in bowls on January 1 in the semifinals before advancing to Texas for the national championship.
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Below, let's predict how the CFP will play out based on matchups birthed from the latest odds to win the national championship.
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama (17-10) vs. No. 4 TCU (5-1)
Rose Bowl: No. 2 Oregon (5-2) vs. No. 3 Florida State (13-2)
Championship Bowl (in Arlington, Texas): TBD (semifinal winners)
Odds via Odd Shark as of December 1 at 9 p.m. ET.
Semifinals Breakdown
Many will groan about an encounter between Alabama and TCU.
That's understandable. TCU is not the most attractive program to have in a semifinal. Ohio State and Baylor may be better draws, but the Horned Frogs certainly deserve respect for the accomplishments of a great season to date.
Emerging from the Big 12 is an accomplishment in and of itself, although it might draw controversy this year, as captured by Lost Lettermen:
Regardless, TCU quietly touts an offense that can do some serious damage to Alabama. The Horned Frogs rank third in the nation in scoring behind the arm of Heisman contender Trevone Boykin, whose gaudy numbers come from multiple angles:
Keep in mind that Alabama has an elite defense, though. The team ranks sixth nationally with an average of just 16.9 points allowed per game.
But wideout Amari Cooper is the reason the Crimson Tide would outlast the Horned Frogs.
Cooper has 103 catches with 1,573 yards and 14 scores on the year. Considering the Horned Frogs rank 26th nationally in terms of scoring defense, sheer talent would eventually see the Crimson Tide to the final—as it has in all but one game this season in a wildly competitive SEC.
The other semifinal in this scenario is not as straightforward.
It appears that way, though. Oregon ranks fourth nationally with an average of 45.9 points scored per game. That figures to mean the Ducks will fly away against a downtrodden Florida State defense that ranks 27th nationally and has serious issues when it comes to getting off the field.
Try not to forget about that whole clutch thing, though.
The Seminoles find ways to win and have won 28 games in a row. Jameis Winston has directed a number of late-game miracles this season, as an odd set of numbers shows, via ESPN.com's David Hale:
Still, a late-game comeback relies on Winston keeping the game close. It is easy to get away with sloppy play in the first half against teams such as N.C. State and Boston College.
Oregon? Not so much.
Marcus Mariota and the Ducks offense take no time off in any contest. This one figures to be epic as the Seminoles attempt to close the gap late, but expect Oregon to build a massive lead in the first half that it never relinquishes.
Championship Breakdown
Alabama-Oregon seems to be the matchup most people have had on their minds all season.
Who wouldn't love some tactical chess between the SEC powerhouse led by Nick Saban and the unstoppable offensive force from out West?
The numbers in such a showdown speak for themselves:
One could make the argument that one player changes everything in such a showdown. Good luck with that—is it Cooper or Mariota?
Oregon's signal-caller has been just as impressive this season, if not more so. Stuck behind an injured line, Mariota has managed 3,470 yards and 36 touchdowns to just two interceptions, with another 636 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground.
Oregon coach Mark Helfrich attributes most of his team's success to Mariota.
"That guy is just such a stud," Helfrich said, per The Associated Press, via ESPN.com. "It starts at the beginning of last week just in terms of his approach, which is infectious to everybody."
Mariota is the reason the Ducks can pull off a shocker in this scenario. The Crimson Tide struggle against quality dual-threat quarterbacks. Look at what Auburn's Nick Marshall did in the Iron Bowl with 456 yards and three touchdown passes and 49 more yards on the ground.
The keys are game tempo and ball security. As the numbers show, Mariota does not turn the ball over. The Ducks can grind down the Crimson Tide and emerge winners of the inaugural CFP.
Stats and information via ESPN.com unless otherwise specified.
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