NFL Draft 2015: Updated Prospect Radar, Post-Week 13
As the majority of college football teams concluded their regular-season schedules this past weekend, “Rivalry Week” was an important one for 2015 NFL draft prospects—many of whom were playing in their last or next-to-last collegiate games—to make a lasting impression.
Because of the fact that there were significant games played on Thanksgiving night, Black Friday and Saturday, there were also more visible opportunities for prospects to make impressions than any other weekend during the season.
That made it tougher than ever to pick the top risers and fallers among seniors and highly touted underclassmen this week, as there were plenty of standouts but also some who failed to close out November with performances they’ll want scouts to see.
The following prospects—including Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota, Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston and Alabama wide receiver Amari Cooper—each gave scouts reasons to either believe in them or have more concerns.
Stock Up: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon, Jr.
1 of 14
This Week: 19-of-25 passing for 367 yards, four touchdowns; 10 rushing attempts for 39 yards, two touchdowns
Opponent: Oregon State
Oregon junior quarterback Marcus Mariota further established himself as the favorite to be this year’s Heisman Trophy winner and also to ultimately end up being the top quarterback selected in the 2015 NFL draft, on Saturday night as he accounted for six touchdowns in the Ducks’ 47-19 victory in the “Civil War” against Oregon State.
Mariota has played dialed-in, largely mistake-free football all season, but he was truly at his best Saturday. He threw the ball accurately all game, including on a number of precisely placed throws more than 20 yards down the field, while he also showed his ability to take off and make big plays with his feet, including one 17-yard run on which he hurdled an Oregon State defender.
For the season, Mariota is responsible for 47 total touchdowns (36 passing, 11 rushing)—the most in the Football Bowl Subdivision—while he has thrown just two interceptions in 334 passing attempts.
Mariota has fumbled seven times this season and 27 times in his career, so ball security to that extent is a concern going forward. He also has some struggles dealing with pressure in the pocket, which he didn’t have too much of Saturday, and he doesn’t typically have to throw into the tight-coverage windows he’ll need to pass through in the NFL.
All of those factors could lead to growing pains as he takes his game to the next level, but he certainly has the tools to be a franchise starting quarterback. He has good size (6’4”, 219 lbs), is a true dual threat and exhibits both the arm strength and ball placement to make connections to all levels of the field.
As Florida State’s Jameis Winston has added erratic play on the field to red flags off the field, it’s looking increasingly by the week as though Mariota is setting himself apart as the 2015 draft’s best signal-caller.
Current Draft Projection: Top Five
Stock Down: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State, RS So.
2 of 14
This Week: 12-of-24 passing for 125 yards, two touchdowns, four interceptions; seven rushing attempts for 16 yards
Opponent: Florida
Jameis Winston and the Florida State Seminoles got off to another slow start Saturday against Florida, and though they ultimately came back to win the game and remain undefeated, Winston finished the game with a career low of 125 passing yards and a career high of four interceptions.
While most criticism of Winston has focused on his off-field issues, his real demise as a prospect this year has happened on the field, where the redshirt sophomore has continued to have clutch moments of greatness but has also been very mistake-prone.
Winston is one of only six quarterbacks in the FBS this year who has thrown 17 or more interceptions, and none of the others are regarded as significant NFL prospects.
There is no quarterback in college football with as much pocket-passing ability as Winston, especially in regard to fitting passes between tight windows, throwing with anticipation and in completing downfield passes under pressure.
That said, it has been apparent this season that Winston has some issues with reading coverages and making proper decisions with the football. At times, he simply gets too greedy or puts too much on the football, but many of his interceptions—including multiple on Saturday—came as a result of him apparently not seeing underneath coverage, allowing a defender to pick off his pass before it even reached its target.
The problems that Winston is having now with making sound reads and avoiding turnovers will only be amplified at the next level.
At this point, it’s clear that Winston’s game must continue to develop before he can become a successful NFL starter, but he plans to declare for the 2015 draft, according to an October report from CBS Sports’ Jason La Canfora.
Even with his off-field issues, it would be a surprise if Winston falls out of the first round, given that he plays the most valuable position on the field and has star potential. His play has clearly regressed this season, however, and that should give teams additional reason to be concerned about potentially investing a high draft pick in him.
Current Draft Projection: Round 1
Stock Down: Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA, Jr.
3 of 14
This Week: 17-of-32 passing for 146 yards, one touchdown; six rushing attempts for minus-18 yards (four sacks)
Opponent: Stanford
As I broke down in more detail last week after he told The Jim Rome Show that he plans to declare for the 2015 draft, UCLA’s Brett Hundley looks to be the most polarizing quarterback prospect in the class.
He didn’t do anything to raise his draft stock or quiet his critics Friday, as he averaged just 4.6 passing yards per attempt in UCLA’s 31-10 loss.
The game actually got off to a strong start for Hundley as he completed two downfield strikes to Thomas Duarte, including a 15-yard scoring pass, as he led UCLA to a touchdown on its opening possession.
From that point forward, Hundley did not complete another pass that went longer than 10 yards until the fourth quarter. UCLA’s offense was out of rhythm all day after the opening series, and it did not reach the end zone again in the game.
Making matters worse, Hundley had to leave the game in the fourth quarter with an injury. According to Jack Wang of the Los Angeles Daily News, Hundley suffered a finger injury on his right hand.
Regardless of the severity of his injury, Friday’s loss means that Hundley will only have one more collegiate game, that being whatever bowl game UCLA goes to, for the defeat knocked the Bruins out of the Pac-12 Championship Game.
While Hundley’s season has been statistically impressive—until Friday, that is—there continue to be lingering concerns about his downfield accuracy and pocket awareness. Having failed an opportunity to impress this past week, Hundley needs to be on his A-game in UCLA’s bowl if he is going to get his stock moving in the right direction.
Current Draft Projection: Rounds 2-3
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Stock Up: Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama, Jr.
4 of 14
This Week: 13 receptions for 224 yards, three touchdowns
Opponent: Auburn
Amari Cooper is unlikely to beat out Marcus Mariota and Wisconsin running back Melvin Gordon to win this year’s Heisman Trophy, but the Alabama wide receiver put his case for being college football’s best player on full display Saturday in the Crimson Tide’s revenge victory over Auburn in the Iron Bowl.
Cooper humiliated Auburn’s secondary throughout the game as he posted 224 receiving yards—the most of any pass-catcher in the FBS this past week—and made it look easy.
The highlights of Cooper’s night came on three scoring plays. His first touchdown was a thing of beauty, as he played a 17-yard fade to the end zone perfectly while making a clean catch up above his body and getting two feet cleanly down in bounds. On his later two touchdowns, Cooper used his clean releases and downfield speed to get wide-open and then cruise to the end zone after the catch, for 39- and 75-yard scores.
Cooper also did a nice job throughout the game of quickly accelerating off short passes to extend gains and accumulate yardage.
Among the top three in the FBS this year in receptions (103), receiving yards (1,573) and receiving touchdowns (14), Cooper is the most complete wideout in college football. He does not possess outstanding physical measurables, but he is a sharp route-runner, consistent-hands catcher and natural open-field mover.
The competition is steep once again in this year’s draft to be the No. 1 receiver, but Cooper has become a safe bet to be at or near the top of the group. Described by former NFL scout John Middlekauff as a "tougher" version of Philadelphia Eagles wideout Jeremy Maclin, Cooper should be able to produce immediately on an NFL offense the way many pass-catchers already have from the 2014 draft class.
Current Draft Projection: Top 10
Stock Up: Sammie Coates, WR, Auburn, Jr.
5 of 14
This Week: Five receptions for 206 yards, two touchdowns; one dropped touchdown
Opponent: Alabama
While Amari Cooper was the star in Alabama’s victory, Auburn junior Sammie Coates also had an exceptional performance, despite his team’s loss, in Saturday’s Iron Bowl.
An outstanding physical specimen, Coates put his big-play ability on display Saturday with a number of highly impressive catches.
His touchdowns, of 68 and 34 yards, each came on plays that Coates simply won with his release off the line of scrimmage after which he then accelerated to top speed and toasted an Alabama cornerback up the sideline to gain deep separation.
On another play where he burned a defensive back deep, Coates caught another bomb for Auburn quarterback Nick Marshall—who made some costly mistakes but overall, he had an impressive performance that displayed his arm strength Saturday—for 53 yards.
Coates’ most impressive play of the day, however, came on a pass on which he was not completely open. Rather, Coates elevated between two defensive backs at the catch point and pulled in a 40-yard reception at the 1-yard line that set up an end-of-half field goal.
Unlike Cooper, Coates’ year as a whole has been disappointing. He’s struggled with drops—his one lowlight of Saturday’s game was when a 3rd-and-goal pass to the end zone went off his hands—and his production has been down from his sophomore year as he has made just 30 receptions for 717 yards and four touchdowns.
Still, there are some draft analysts who are adamant that Coates’ potential will make him a first-round pick. He showed Saturday why, despite his inconsistent hands and limited route-running diversity, he could go as high as the top-32 picks.
Current Draft Projection: Rounds 2-3
Stock Up: DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville, Sr.
6 of 14
This Week: Six receptions for 180 yards, three touchdowns
Opponent: Kentucky
Although he played on a smaller stage than the Iron Bowl receivers on Saturday, DeVante Parker’s performance in Louisville’s win over Kentucky was equally impressive.
For the fourth time in five weeks, Parker amassed triple digits as he accumulated six receptions for 180 yards. All but one of those receptions, including each of his career-high three touchdowns, came after redshirt freshman Kyle Bolin—Louisville’s third quarterback of the year—took over following an injury to Reggie Bonnafon.
Parker used a double move on a go route to burn a Kentucky cornerback and then make a nice deep-ball catch and finish with a 45-yard touchdown on his first score.
His second touchdown was perhaps his most impressive, as he caught a pass about 15 yards downfield but then bounced off two defenders on his 33-yard trip to the end zone.
He later made a skillful spinning adjustment in the air to catch a pass about 25 yards downfield, then finished to the house for another 45-yard score.
Parker has already come close to matching his yardage total from his junior season, with 735 receiving yards this year, even though he has only played in five games. He has 35 receptions and five touchdowns scored in that span.
A 6’3”, 211-pound wideout who has a quick release off the line, terrific hands, tremendous body control and enough speed and agility to extend plays in the open field, Parker has proved himself—despite his truncated season—to be a first-round talent and a legitimate challenger for Cooper, and others, to be the first wide receiver drafted in 2015.
Current Draft Projection: Round 1
Stock Down: Quandre Diggs, CB, Texas, Sr.
7 of 14
This Week: Nine total tackles, one quarterback hit, one dropped interception, one muffed punt
Opponent: TCU
Another wide receiver who had a big outing this week was TCU wide receiver Josh Doctson, who caught seven passes for 115 yards and a touchdown in the Horned Frogs’ Thanksgiving night win over Texas.
Doctson, a junior, has emerged as a draft prospect and could be a mid-round pick if he declares, but more noticeable for the wrong reasons in this game was the senior cornerback on the other side of most of those catches, Quandre Diggs.
Diggs made some strong tackles over the course of the game, but he had some issues in coverage against Doctson. On multiple occasions, including a 38-yard catch and the 22-yard touchdown, the 5’10”, 195-pound cornerback lost jump balls to Doctson, who is listed at 6’4” and 190 pounds.
On Diggs’ opportunity to make a big play, when he broke on a pass that came straight to him, he dropped an interception right out of his hands. He also muffed a punt late in the game, which TCU recovered.
Overall, Diggs had one of his worst games on his senior day in Austin. Even his coach, Charlie Strong, said Diggs “just didn't play with the juice and the enthusiasm that he normally has,” according to Brian Davis of the Austin American-Statesman.
A highly touted player early in his collegiate career, Diggs never quite developed into the shutdown cornerback he was expected to become. Small for the cornerback position, Diggs could have persistent troubles with bigger receivers, like he did Thursday.
That said, Diggs is a good athlete who typically makes plays like the interception he dropped, and he is a physical tackler as he showed in a positive fashion Thursday. He should warrant a Day 3 draft selection, make an NFL roster and have a good chance to get on the field early as a nickel or dime cornerback.
Current Draft Projection: Rounds 4-5
Stock Up: Jay Ajayi, RB, Boise State, Jr.
8 of 14
This Week: 27 rushing attempts for 229 yards, five touchdowns; one reception for one yard
Opponent: Utah State
Boise State has won each of his last seven games to finish its regular season with a 10-2 record, earning it not only a berth in the Mountain West Championship Game but also putting it in position to play in one of this year’s six major bowl games as the top-ranked team from a “Group of Five” conference this season.
Leading the way to those seven wins has been junior running back Jay Ajayi, who has scored multiple touchdowns and accumulated at least 144 yards from scrimmage in each game during the winning streak.
His best performance yet might have been the one which came Saturday night, against a Utah State defense that came in having allowed just 116.5 rushing yards per game and 11 rushing touchdowns, as Ajayi ran for a career-high 229 yards and a school-record five scores.
Ajayi, whose highlights Saturday night included a 62-yard touchdown, shows the vision to attack holes and strength to bounce off contact between the tackles, while he also has the speed to break big plays in the open field.
With as much success as he had running Saturday, Boise State didn’t need to pass him the ball, but he’s a good pass-catching back too. Ajayi has caught 45 passes for 536 yards and four touchdowns this season; in total, Ajayi ranks third in the nation in yards from scrimmage (2,155) and second in touchdowns scored (28).
There isn’t one truly spectacular trait about Ajayi, but he’s as well-rounded as any back in college football. His consistency of production has been impressive, and he can bring value to the field on any down and distance.
Current Draft Projection: Round 3
Stock Up: Carl Davis, DT, Iowa, Sr.
9 of 14
This Week: Three total tackles, two tackles for loss (one sack), three quarterback hurries, blocked field goal
Opponent: Nebraska
As he went up against an injury-plagued Nebraska offensive line Friday, Iowa senior Carl Davis took advantage and put together a very noticeable showing, despite being a defensive tackle on the losing team in the game.
Throughout the game, Davis showed his ability to get into the backfield to bring pressure as a pass-rusher and to shut down running backs or redirect them as a run-stopper. At different times throughout the game, Davis used his quickness off the snap, power, hand skills and ability to move on stunts to get by blockers and behind the line of scrimmage.
Davis recorded two tackles for loss, but his biggest play came when he used a spin move to beat Nebraska’s right tackle on an outside route, crashed in quickly on the quarterback and hit him as he threw, forcing the pass skyward which led to an interception and return for a touchdown by Iowa teammate John Lowdermilk.
There were times that Davis was stood up by blockers and made to be ineffective, but those instances became few and far between in the second half after Ryne Reeves, who started for Nebraska in place of Mark Pelini at center, left with an injury and had to be replaced by Paul Thurston, a sophomore who was originally the third-string center.
Davis also made a big impact on special teams in this game. He recorded the first field-goal block of his career on a 27-yard attempt by Nebraska’s Drew Brown. He also helped force what was essentially a blocked punt when Nebraska’s Sam Foltz booted the ball into his own lineman’s back—a lineman blocking against Davis—which allowed Drew Ott to scoop up the punt behind the punter and score a touchdown.
A constant presence around the line of scrimmage who helped make two non-offensive touchdowns happen in this game, Davis showed why he recently earned an invitation to the Senior Bowl.
Davis does not have an exceptional burst, but he is quite nimble for a 6’5”, 315-pound defensive tackle. Best suited to play that position in a 4-3 scheme, though he could likely also play defensive end in a three-man front, Davis projects as a likely second-round choice.
Current Draft Projection: Round 2
Stock Up: Ray Drew, DE, Georgia, Sr.
10 of 14
This Week: Nine total tackles, blocked field goal, blocked extra point
Opponent: Georgia Tech
Ray Drew’s four-year career at Georgia has been largely disappointing, but the senior defensive end saved his best for his last regular-season game, as he had a highly disruptive performance on both defense and special teams against Georgia Tech on Saturday.
The 6’5”, 284-pound lineman showed his quickness, and his abilities to shed blocks with his hands and tackle soundly, as he accumulated nine total tackles from the defensive front. He didn’t have much chance to pass-rush against the Georgia Tech triple-option offense, as it only passed the ball 16 times, but he was able to bring some heat into the backfield on numerous occasions.
On special teams, Drew put his length and leaping ability on display as he blocked two kicks: a 37-yard field goal attempt by Harrison Butker in the second quarter, and an extra point attempt by Butker in overtime.
The game was easily the most productive outing of the year for Drew, who only has 32 total tackles for the season, but he was a highly-touted recruit coming into Georgia and his physical tools remain enticing. Playing in a 3-4 defensive front for the Bulldogs, that’s where he projects best to the NFL, but he could also bring versatility to a 4-3 line as well.
Even in this game, Drew ended up on the ground or pushed back away from the line of scrimmage more than he should have been; in order to be a 3-4 end in the NFL, he’ll need to add some bulk.
Overall, however, Saturday’s game showed Drew’s ability to stop the run and why that could make him a Day 3 selection in this year’s draft.
Current Draft Projection: Round 6
Hidden Gem of the Week: Brandon Doughty, QB, Western Kentucky, Sr.
11 of 14
This Week: 34-of-50 passing for 491 yards, eight touchdowns, two interceptions; two sacks for -15 yards
Opponent: Marshall
The Marshall Thundering Herd lost its first game on Black Friday in a 67-66 overtime shootout, largely because its defense had no answer for Brandon Doughty and the Western Kentucky offense.
Doughty, who leads all FBS quarterbacks this season with 4,344 passing yards and 44 touchdowns, and also ranks sixth nationally in quarterback rating, was on top of his game Saturday.
While Doughty’s gaudy statistics for the season have more to do with his team’s offensive system than anything, the 6’3”, 210-pound senior quarterback showed pro-quality tools Saturday as he completed a number of impressive deep-balls and put his mobility on display.
Doughty was intercepted twice on Saturday and has thrown 10 picks for the season, but that’s not a terrible number considering he’s thrown 510 total passes.
By throwing for 491 yards and a career-high eight touchdowns Saturday, all the while leading his team to a victory over an opponent who had won its first 11 games of the year, Doughty’s performance should capture the attention of NFL scouts.
In a senior class that is short on quarterback talent, Doughty could be a quality selection in the later rounds of the draft.
Current Draft Projection: Round 7
Small-School Stud of the Week: Zach Zenner, RB, South Dakota State, Sr.
12 of 14
This Week: 23 carries for 252 yards, four touchdowns; two receptions for 72 yards, one touchdown
Opponent: Montana State
In a cold, snowy, opening-round game of the Football Championship Subdivision playoffs, South Dakota State senior running back Zach Zenner led the Jackrabbits to a victory over Montana State by accumulating 324 yards from scrimmage and scoring five touchdowns.
Four of those touchdowns put Zenner’s downfield speed and big-play ability on display, as he scored twice from 69 yards out—once on a run, another on a catch-and-run—while he also had trips of 60 yards and 45 yards among his four rushing touchdowns.
Zenner likely won’t be able to run away from NFL defenders with the success he did against Montana State on Saturday. That said, the 6’0”, 220-pound back is a well-rounded player who is physical against contact and can catch the ball effectively out of the backfield.
Currently leading the FCS with 1,886 rushing yards and 2,214 yards from scrimmage, while he also ranks second nationally with 24 touchdowns, Zenner recently accepted an invitation to the East-West Shrine Game.
Zenner has a good shot at being a Day 3 draft selection, especially if he finishes strong in the FCS playoffs and performs well against higher-level competition at the Shrine Game.
Current Draft Projection: Rounds 6-7
Other Notable Performers
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Highlighted a couple of weeks ago for his emergence as one of college football’s best draft-eligible quarterbacks, USC quarterback Cody Kessler had his biggest game yet Saturday as he completed 32 of 40 passing attempts for 372 yards and six touchdowns, the most ever thrown in a game against Notre Dame, according to NFL.com’s Bryan Fischer.
Kessler had a subpar showing the previous week against UCLA and still isn’t expected to declare for the 2015 draft, but he’s had an excellent season in which he has completed 70.7 percent of his passing attempts for 3,505 yards with 36 touchdowns and just four interceptions. If Kessler changes his mind and goes pro, he should be a solid Day 2 draft pick.
Another player having an excellent breakout year, Louisville redshirt sophomore free safety Gerod Holliman, tied the all-time single-season record for interceptions when he picked off his 14th pass of the year, returning it 65 yards, to seal a Cardinals victory late in the game over Kentucky.
That interception was thrown straight to him, but it’s been clear all year that Holliman is a ball magnet. Another display of his terrific ball skills came when he picked off a two-point conversion pass attempt in the end zone with just one hand, although that was nullified by a penalty and wouldn’t have counted toward his official total for the season anyway.
A likely first- or second-round pick, even though he has some tackling issues, as Rotoworld’s Josh Norris noted, Holliman is expected to enter the draft, according to TFY Draft Insider’s Tony Pauline.
While Cooper and Coates stole the show in the Iron Bowl, two other offensive skill-position players who had strong showings in that game Saturday were Alabama junior running back T.J. Yeldon and Auburn junior wide receiver D’haquille Williams.
Yeldon, a projected Day 2 draft choice, attacked holes with burst, kept his feet moving effectively and finished through contact all game as he took 19 carries for 127 yards and two touchdowns.
Williams, also a likely second- or third-round pick, caught seven passes for 121 yards in his first game from a knee injury. Like Coates, he had a drop on what should have been a touchdown pass, but many of the receptions he made came with a high degree of difficulty and showed his abilities to adjust to the ball and make catches in traffic.
NFL Draft Injury Notes
14 of 14
Baylor quarterback Bryce Petty, who suffered transverse process fractures in his back in the Bears’ season opener and has had a significant decline in his play as a senior, suffered a concussion Saturday against Texas Tech.
He said he expects to play against Kansas State this week, according to Jake Trotter of ESPN.com, but he’ll have to pass post-concussion protocol to be cleared. Either way, it’s been a rough year for Petty, whose draft stock has fallen as a result.
One of the most anticipated draft-prospect matchups of the holiday weekend never happened. The Nebraska-Iowa game was supposed to feature a battle between potential top-10 picks in Cornhuskers defensive end Randy Gregory and Hawkeyes left tackle Brandon Scherff, but Gregory ended up being unable to play.
The ABC broadcast of the game indicated that Gregory was suffering from a concussion and an ankle injury, according to Mike Huguenin of NFL.com.
Florida State senior running back Karlos Williams had to leave Saturday’s game against Florida with a concussion. Williams has had a disappointing senior season, so he can use all the chances he can get to make strong impressions late in the year, but it’s unknown whether he’ll be able to play in the ACC Championship Game versus Georgia Tech.
On the other end, Georgia Tech senior wide receiver DeAndre Smelter is doubtful to play against FSU due to a knee injury, Yellow Jackets coach Paul Johnson said Sunday, according to Andrea Adelson of ESPN.com. Smelter’s not a big name, but he’s started to generate some buzz as an emerging prospect this year; the ACC Championship would have been a prime opportunity for him to showcase his skills to a bigger audience.
Dan Hope is an NFL/NFL Draft Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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