College Football Rankings 2014: Playoff Predictions and Bracket Projections
As far as the inaugural College Football Playoff goes, rivalry week was as chaotic as advertised.
Granted, the first three slots remain pretty much the same. But for those who experienced the journey firsthand, it sure did not feel like it would turn out that way.
The Alabama Crimson Tide got a near-perfect second half to take down Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Jameis Winston and Florida State yet again were almost upset, this time by in-state rival Florida.
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What is so fun about this process at this juncture is the No. 4 slot. A number of teams have a legitimate claim, but one is without a quarterback, one has a loss to another hopeful and that hopeful does not have a stronger track record, while countless others nip at their heels.
Who says this time of year is not fun?
Chris Roling Playoff Projections
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 TCU
Rose Bowl: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Florida State
Championship Bowl (in Arlington, Texas): TBD (semifinal winners)
Breakdown
Feel free to just jump right into the meat of the matter—that No. 4 spot.
If the playoff starts this weekend, TCU has to be the final team that fends off the field and sneaks into the fray.
One problem—the season still has life.
The Horned Frogs took care of business on Thanksgiving Day with a 48-10 thumping of Texas. Quarterback Trevone Boykin accounted for 233 yards and a pair of scores through the air and 50 more and a score on the ground.
As far as ranked wins go, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Kansas State is a great resume. Feel free to sprinkle in a nonconference win over pesky Minnesota. Most, including Stewart Mandel of Fox Sports, concur that this is enough to get the Horned Frogs to the postseason:
TCU has plenty of help, though. Mississippi State took a dive last weekend. Ohio State would surely occupy the No. 4 spot, but quarterback J.T. Barrett suffering a season-ending injury has a way of ruining the Buckeyes in the eyes of the committee—unless they pull off an absolutely jaw-dropping performance against Wisconsin with a backup under center.
Baylor is another team out of the Big 12 with some help as of late, though. The Bears got an ugly 48-46 win over Texas Tech last weekend, but keep in mind that means the team still has just one loss and owns a win over TCU.
A win against Kansas State to close the season throws this all for a loop. Yahoo Sports' Pat Forde puts it best:
It is hard to see how TCU does not take care of business against two-win Iowa State, though. Ohio State seems out of the equation, so as long as Baylor looks sloppy once more, TCU figures to hold on to that final spot by way of a superb resume and consistent domination since the lone loss back in mid-October.
The top three slots are not as dramatic.
Like it or not, Alabama is a lock for No. 1. The Iron Bowl was a scare for three quarters and change, but five second-half touchdowns has a way of putting away the opposition. Heisman-contending wideout Amari Cooper placed the team on his back with 13 grabs for 224 yards and three scores in the process.
For as much as folks want to see the SEC cannibalize itself out of the postseason, the Crimson Tide now have wins over Florida, West Virginia, Arkansas, Texas A&M, LSU, Mississippi State and Auburn.
Keep in mind that each of the last five Iron Bowl winners went on to the national championship, where four of them won it all. That trend seems like it will stay alive thanks to an impending matchup with Missouri, a 10-2 team with little offense (ranked 70th nationally) and losses to Georgia and Indiana on the year.
Oregon-Florida State is not the most appealing playoff matchup, either, although anything can happen once both teams are there.
Winston and the Seminoles are the reason for the negative talk there. The team has now needed late finishes to overcome NC State, Notre Dame, Louisville, Miami (Florida), Boston College and Florida. The national vibe about the team seems to align with a note from ESPN.com's James Walker:
Then again, it is pretty impressive that the Seminoles are talented enough to overcome just 125 passing yards and a career-high four interceptions from Winston.
It may take another late-game miracle to overcome a game Georgia Tech team, though. The Yellow Jackets tout a top-five rushing attack and top-20 offense with recent wins over ranked Clemson and Georgia teams.
The road is much easier for Oregon, a team most figure would have lost by now in past years. This edition is more mature, though, and Marcus Mariota put on a clinic in the Civil War with 367 total yards and six touchdowns to get the Ducks to 11-1.
All that remains now is a chance for the Ducks to exorcise some demons with a win against Arizona to close the season. The Wildcats are the only team to best the Ducks this season, so the heavyweight bout might just be enough for Oregon to jump even higher in the CFP standings—or fall out entirely.
As it stands right now, a game TCU squad would encounter Alabama. With nothing to lose after sneaking in, the Horned Frogs may be a tougher test than most would figure. Given the late-game heroics on a weekly basis by Winston and Co., an encounter with the high-flying Ducks figures to be one of the best games of the year.
As is always the case, though, all of this is subject to change with just one contest concluding in a certain manner.
Stats and information via ESPN.com unless otherwise specified.
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