NFL Picks Week 13: Predictions for Marquee Games Against the Spread

To say that Week 13 of the NFL season got off to a lackluster start is an understatement. Unless you are a fan of Detroit, Philadelphia or Seattle, the three Thanksgiving Day games didn't provide much excitement or drama. Fortunately, there are still 13 games to be played. 

Another exciting part of this weekend's slate of games is that no matter what happens, the playoff picture figures to become even more of a jumbled mess. The NFC has four teams fighting for the last two spots, while the AFC is an even bigger mess with seven teams having seven wins and two other teams at 6-5. 

In other words, December promises to be a very interesting month of football. The final weekend in November will bring some clarity to the division races, but it's going to be a long time before there's any certainty in the wild-card races. 

Whatever happens, it will all be fascinating to watch. Here's a look at the spreads for the 13 games left this week, as well as a closer examination of the marquee matchups taking place. 

Matchup	Spread	Pick
San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens	BAL (-7)	Ravens, 24-20
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills	BUF (-3)	Bills, 23-17
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans	HOU (-7.5)	Texans, 17-14
Washington at Indianapolis Colts	IND (-10.5)	Colts, 31-14
New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars	NYG (-3)	Giants, 27-21
Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings	MIN (-1)	Vikings, 24-21
New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers	PIT (-5)	Saints, 27-23
Oakland Raiders at St. Louis Rams	STL (-7)	Rams, 24-16
Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	CIN (-3.5)	Bengals, 28-24
Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons	EVEN	Falcons, 27-23
New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers	GB (-3)	Patriots, 34-31
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs	EVEN	Broncos, 31-28
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets	MIA (-7.5)	Dolphins, 27-10

San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens

Rogelio Solis/Associated Press

Because there are two marquee games taking place in the evening on Sunday, this matchup between San Diego and Baltimore is getting lost in the shuffle. Not only are these two quality teams that are fun to watch, but their identical 7-4 records make this a huge battle for playoff positioning. 

As things currently stand, the Chargers are the No. 6 seed in the AFC and the Ravens would be the first team out. A win here for either side gives them a huge leg up in the playoff race, because the head-to-head tiebreaker could decide who sticks around in January and who goes home. 

Looking at the statistical matchup between these two teams, Baltimore comes out well ahead in scoring and yards on offense. San Diego's strength has been on defense, though the two teams have allowed virtually the same number of points, as you can see in the graphic below via StatMilk:

Another key stat to look for in this matchup is fourth-quarter scoring. The Ravens have been terrific when the spotlight is brightest, scoring 96 points in those final 15 minutes of games. 

Joe Flacco has been brilliant for the Ravens this season, especially when it comes to long touchdown passes, as this stat from ESPN Stats & Info shows:

That's going to be key against a San Diego secondary that really hasn't been tested the last two weeks with matchups against Shaun Hill and Derek Carr. In the three games prior to the bye week, the Chargers got eaten alive with 795 passing yards and seven touchdowns allowed. 

San Diego is also a below-average team on the road this year with a 2-3 record, while the Ravens have been terrific at home (4-1). It's going to be hard for Baltimore to stay under the radar much longer. 

Prediction: Ravens 24, Chargers 20

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

This AFC West showdown has a direct tie in to the previous game, as the Chargers and Chiefs are still looking up at Denver in the division race. Kansas City blew a golden opportunity last week by losing to Oakland on Thursday night. 

With 10 days to prepare for Peyton Manning, Andy Reid's crew has a chance to make all of those bad feelings disappear. However, that means the Chiefs will have to do something they haven't managed to since Manning came to Denver: win. 

If there is a silver lining for the Chiefs to hone in on, it's that the games have largely been competitive. With the exception of a 38-3 beatdown in December of 2012, all of the games have been decided by 10 points or fewer. The last two contests, including Week 2 this season, have been decided by a touchdown. 

While the Chiefs are trying to figure out what happened last week against Oakland, the Broncos have their own issues to think about. They had a big comeback win over Miami last Sunday, but if you take out the Oakland game in Week 10, they've given up 101 points in three games this month. 

One thing to take note of is Denver's running game against Kansas City's run defense. According to The Associated Press game preview, via FoxSports.com, that will play a bigger role in determining the outcome than anything:

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The Chiefs have looked increasingly vulnerable on the ground, giving up 383 yards over their past two games. They allowed 179 yards and their first two rushing TDs of the season in a 24-20 defeat at previously winless Oakland on Nov. 20, including a 90-yard scoring run by Latavius Murray.

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That's critical because Kansas City has the league's top-ranked pass defense (198.9 yards per game) and Manning was off with six interceptions in three games prior to finding his groove against Miami. Eventually the Broncos will get that consistency back in the passing game, but balance is key to having success. 

The Chiefs need this to be a slow-paced game because their offense doesn't have quick-strike capability. Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis are terrific. Alex Smith won't make a critical mistake, though he's also not going to take any big shots down the field. His receiving corps is mediocre, at best. 

Even playing at home, the Chiefs have a lot more to prove in this spot than the Broncos. With that kind of pressure, as well as the lifeless effort from last week, look for Denver to pull away in the division race in another tight game. 

Prediction: Broncos 31, Chiefs 28

New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers

The game of the weekend seems like the hardest to predict, but when you break it down there's no doubt that New England is the better team. Take a look at what the raw stats show about the Patriots and Packers this season, via StatMilk:

The only discernible statistical difference in Green Bay's favor is pass defense, though one could rationally say that New England gives up a lot of garbage yards in blowouts. (Yes, the same can be said for the Packers.)

One stat that deserves to be pointed out is Green Bay at home versus New England on the road. The Packers are 5-0 at Lambeau Field and have won their last four home games by a combined 127 points. The Patriots are 3-2 on the road, though the two losses came in September. 

Since the first month of the year, Bill Belichick's team has won its last seven games and won its last two road games by an average of 18.5 points. Neither team has had a task like it will face this weekend, though. 

One reason the Patriots are such a perfect matchup for the Packers is their secondary. As Jeff Howe of The Boston Herald noted, while Green Bay has arguably the league's best quarterback and two terrific receivers, the list of weapons doesn't run deep:

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From there, the lack of a game-changing third weapon should theoretically yield a more straightforward game plan. Start with Revis, Browner, Nelson and Cobb, and filter down.

Yet, despite the lack of aerial production behind Nelson (68 receptions, 1,066 yards, nine touchdowns) and Cobb (58-837-10), the Patriots aren’t shrugging their shoulders at the rest of the targets, even though running back Eddie Lacy is third on the team in receptions (29), yards (335) and touchdowns (three).

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There's no denying that Rodgers covers a lot of weak spots for the Packers, but it's not impossible to contain this offense. Minnesota did a good job of limiting the aerial assault with 209 yards allowed, though Rodgers did get the defense for two touchdowns. 

Throw a better secondary led by Darrelle Revis, one of the best cover corners in the business, and the 6'3" Brandon Browner against the Packers, it becomes easier to contain Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. 

On the other side, there is no single player capable of covering Rob Gronkowski. If the Packers are forced to double-team New England's big tight end, that will leave openings for Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell underneath to create plays in open space. 

The addition of LeGarrette Blount to the backfield gives the Patriots a punisher to wear down Green Bay's defensive line. 

There's no reason to expect anything less than brilliance from Rodgers and Tom Brady in this spot, but in the battle between the Patriots and Packers, it's clear which team comes out on top. 

Prediction: Patriots 34, Packers 31

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