State of Play: Analysing the Champions League Groups with 1 Game Left
After the conclusion of round five of matches in the group stages of the UEFA Champions League, we now know 11 of the 16 teams who will go into the knockout phase of the competition.
There remains much to play for for those other spots though, as well as continued European competition in the new year in the shape of the Europa League for those who finish third in their groups.
Here's a full round-up of the latest in the Champions League, group by group, as we look at who needs to achieve what in their final matches to ensure qualification or reach their objectives.
Group A
1 of 8
Impressive: After losing their opening game, Atletico have won all four matches since.
Underwhelming: Juventus' European nerves continue as they need a result to avoid another last-game group-stage exit.
Final fixtures: Juventus vs. Atletico, Olympiakos vs. Malmo.
Mario Mandzukic's hat-trick on Wednesday ensured that Atletico have secured top-spot in the group unless they lose by worse than a 1-0 scoreline in their final match.
Juventus head into that match knowing they still need things to go their way; getting a result against the reigning Spanish champions and last season's Champions League finalists will not be easy, and a defeat would very likely mean another group stage exit.
Olympiakos are three points behind Juve and will expect to beat Swedish opponents Malmo; if they do and Juve lose, head-to-head comes into effect—they have both won one game each, goal difference is the same for each, but Olympiakos scored twice away from home, meaning they would progress at Juve's expense.
If Malmo beat Olympiakos, they will finish third and go into the Europa League, while Juventus will reach the knock-outs regardless of their own score.
Group B
2 of 8
Impressive: Real Madrid have the only 100 percent record in the group stage this season.
Underwhelming: Liverpool have won one of their five games, scoring just four.
Final fixtures: Liverpool vs. Basel, Real Madrid vs. Ludogorets.
Real Madrid are of course guaranteed top spot and are nine points clear going into the final game. Basel (six points), Liverpool (four) and Ludogorets (four) can all still stay in Europe after the new year.
For the English team it is simple: They have to win. Beat Basel and they leapfrog the Swiss side into second, regardless of the other game.
If Basel get a draw, they will be guaranteed second spot, even if Ludogorets beat Real Madrid, on account of a better goal difference in the head-to-head with the Bulgarian side. As such, Ludogorets can only reach third and the Europa League if they get a better result than Liverpool manage.
Group C
3 of 8
Impressive: Monaco have only conceded once, the best defensive record in the group stages.
Underwhelming: Benfica have been issued with three red cards in their five games—no combined group has had more than this.
Final fixtures: Monaco vs. Zenit, Benfica vs. Bayer Leverkusen
Both qualifying places in this group are still up for grabs, though only one qualification place: Bayer Leverkusen are assured of at least second place.
Zenit have to beat Monaco in France to jump ahead of them; any other result means Monaco join Leverkusen in the last 16. Leverkusen will seal top spot with a draw and a Zenit win or draw, or with a win if Monaco beat Zenit.
Benfica are already guaranteed bottom spot.
Group D
4 of 8
Impressive: Borussia Dortmund are in the relegation zone domestically, but top of their Champions League group.
Underwhelming: Galatasaray made the knockouts last season but are bottom of the group with just a single point this year, obtained in their opening match.
Final fixtures: Galatasaray vs. Arsenal, Dortmund vs. Anderlecht.
Both qualification spots and the Europa League berth is already assured, with all that remains to be decided being who finishes top and second. Arsenal need a win and to hope Dortmund do not get a point if they want to finish top—or else Arsenal have to win by seven if Dortmund draw.
Group E
5 of 8
Impressive: Manchester City are the only side to beat Bayern Munich this season in league or Champions League action...
Underwhelming:...but still sit bottom of the group and in danger of yet another group-stage exit after just that single victory.
Final fixtures: Roma vs. Manchester City, Bayern Munich vs. CSKA Moscow.
Going into the final games, Bayern are already through and guaranteed top spot, but the other three teams are all locked on five points apiece. Roma at home in the last game have the slight advantage, so we'll start with them in a tricky group to explain.
A Roma win sees them to eight points, qualified regardless of CSKA's score at Bayern. Even if they do beat the Germans, head-to-head between Roma-CSKA sees the Italians top. Obviously a draw between Roma-City and a CKSA win means the Russians progress on points.
A Roma-City draw and a Bayern-CSKA draw leaves all three on six, so head-to-head dictates Roma finish top as all six of their points would come from matches vs. City (three) and CSKA (five).
If Manchester City win in Rome—which they must if they want to qualify in second—they need CSKA to not beat Bayern, otherwise the Russians again progress on direct head-to-head.
This is a tremendously tight and exciting group to keep an eye on.
Group F
6 of 8
Impressive: Lionel Messi has scored or assisted in all five games so far.
Underwhelming: Neither Ajax nor APOEL managed anything like an acceptable challenge against PSG and Barcelona.
Final fixtures: Barcelona vs. PSG, Ajax vs. APOEL.
Just positions remain to be determined here.
PSG need to avoid defeat in Barcelona on the final day to finish top, whereas obviously Barcelona must win if they are to supplant the French side and go through as group winners.
At the bottom, both Ajax and APOEL are hoping for their first win of the group stage, but only APOEL have to win to take the Europa League spot. A draw will do for Ajax.
Group G
7 of 8
Impressive: Sporting Lisbon boss Marco Silva is on the verge of taking Sporting to the knock-outs in his first season as a Champions League boss—despite being only eighth in the Portuguese Primeira Liga.
Underwhelming: The group matches have seen four own goals scored so far.
Final fixtures: Chelsea vs. Sporting, Maribor vs. Schalke.
Chelsea are already guaranteed top spot and their place in the last 16, with Sporting and Schalke chasing the other berth.
A win for Sporting guarantees them second, while a draw will also see Sporting into second even if Schalke win their game, based on head-to-head goal difference—making Islam Slimani's 91st-minute goal in the 4-2 home win for the Portuguese side absolutely vital.
Schalke must beat Maribor and hope Chelsea beat Sporting for the German club to take second place.
Group H
8 of 8
Impressive: No team has scored more than Porto's 15 Champions League goals in the group stage. No player has scored more than Shakhtar's Luiz Adriano, who has nine.
Underwhelming: BATE Borisov have conceded 22 in five games—the next highest is just 15 (Galatasaray).
Final fixtures: Porto vs. Shakhtar, Athletic vs. BATE
This group is actually all but wrapped up; Porto and Shakhtar had already assured themselves of qualification before game week five.
Porto will top the group and Shakhtar will finish second regardless of the final round of games, with Athletic needing at least a draw in the last game to finish third and head into the Europa League, with their win in Ukraine this week coming far too late.
