Thanksgiving Day Fantasy Football 2014: Best FanDuel, DraftKings Lineup Advice

Finding ways to distract yourself from familial nonsense is a holiday tradition in every household. Whether it's gorging yourself on second helpings, ensconcing yourself in some inane television program or simply faking an "illness" to dip after dinner (never before dinner), Thanksgiving is a near-constant competition to see who's best at avoiding hours worth of political talk with that relative who Will. Not. Stop. Talking.      

This year, the proliferation of daily fantasy games will give you all another excuse. While services like FanDuel and DraftKings have been around for a few years, their popularity has taken off in 2014.

Perhaps the best aspect of so-called one-week leagues is that there are so many to choose from. While there are more traditional leagues that account for the entirety of Week 13, there are special games this week designed around the Thanksgiving holiday.

That's right. You may now choose to ignore the banal conversations by saying you can (legally) make money on these games. It's unlikely to prohibit an argument with your spouse on the car ride home, but that argument will be a lot less pointed when you can offer some extra cash for Black Friday shopping.

Anyway, enough holiday talk. Let's get to helping you all afford that $110 flatscreen deal. 

Position	Player	Game	Salary
QB	Mark Sanchez	PHI@DAL	$7,600
RB	DeMarco Murray	PHI@DAL	$9,000
RB	LeSean McCoy	PHI@DAL	$8,000
WR	Alshon Jeffery	CHI@DET	$8,000
WR	Golden Tate	CHI@DET	$7,900
WR	Jermaine Kearse	SEA@SF	$4,800
TE	Zach Ertz	PHI@DAL	$4,800
K	Dan Bailey	PHI@DAL	$5,000
DEF	Chicago Bears	CHI@DET	$4,900

Position	Player	Game	Salary
QB	Mark Sanchez	PHI@DAL	$6,800
RB	LeSean McCoy	PHI@DAL	$7,400
RB	Frank Gore	SEA@SF	$3,500
WR	Jeremy Maclin	PHI@DAL	$6,800
WR	Golden Tate	CHI@DET	$6,600
WR	Alshon Jeffery	CHI@DET	$6,300
TE	Zach Ertz	PHI@DAL	$3,200
FLEX	Marshawn Lynch	SEA@SF	$6,400
DEF	Chicago Bears	CHI@DET	$3,000

Quarterback

Similarity: Mark Sanchez, Philadelphia Eagles (FanDuel: $7,600, DraftKings: $6,800)

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

Sanchez has the second-lowest salary among quarterbacks in both services for reasons that remain unexplained. The Eagles quarterback has thrown for more than 300 yards in each of his three starts and has generally looked no worse in Chip Kelly's offense than Nick Foles. 

Matthew Stafford hasn't gone over the 300-yard plateau in a month and has done so twice all season. Jay Cutler went over the mark two weeks ago but had less than half of Sanchez's yardage total in Sunday's win over Tampa Bay. Tony Romo and Russell Wilson are better options on an even playing field—not when you're trying to conserve salary and there's a $1,000 price difference.

The Eagles play a Dallas defense that ranks 25th in DVOA and has gotten progressively worse. The last time the Cowboys were better than a replacement-level secondary was Week 6 against Seattle, according to Football Outsiders' premium database (subscription required).

Sanchez is a no-brainer selection here.

Running Back

Similarity: LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles (FanDuel: $8,000, DraftKings: $7,400)

Michael Perez/Associated Press

Using the same matchup justification, McCoy should be in line for his fourth strong performance in his last five games. A dreadful start had many souring on the 2013 NFL rushing leader early, but he's had fewer than 80 rushing yards once since the end of September.

McCoy hasn't and probably never will reach the heights of last season again. He's nonetheless become a reliable performer who is trending upward. The Eagles gained 164 rushing yards against Tennessee last week, with McCoy accounting for 130 and a touchdown. It's possible he would have had a second score had Darren Sproles not scampered his way in from four yards out in the first quarter.

The Cowboys' front seven has been better than their secondary, but McCoy should be fine.

Difference: DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys (FanDuel: $9,000)

Frank Franklin II/Associated Press

Just the way the money worked out here. Murray is the most consistent running back in football, and the way FanDuel's salary structure worked his upside made it worth the hefty price. There aren't any players at wide receiver who would have the leap from Jermaine Kearse worth it, given the salary difference between Murray and Frank Gore ($2,900)

The only one worth considering who would fit into that window is Anquan Boldin, but trusting the 49ers' passing game is a crapshoot. Trusting Murray to make up the difference between Boldin and Kearse is a better bet.

Difference: Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers (DraftKings: $3,500)

Injuries, inconsistent workload, whatever. Getting a running back of Gore's caliber at a nonexistent cost is a steal. All three Lions running backs, who are part of the NFL's worst ground game, have a higher asking price. 

No other reason is needed.

Difference: Marshawn Lynch (DraftKings FLEX: $6,400)

Stephen Brashear/Associated Press

DraftKings gives owners the option of a flex over a kicker, opening up an opportunity for Lynch. Six of his nine touchdowns came in a two-week bonanza earlier this month, but the Seahawks have a habit of pounding their running back against the division-rival 49ers. Lynch carried the ball 48 times and scored three touchdowns in their two matchups last season; he carried it 45 times and had 100 yards in each contest in 2012.

Past performance isn't always indicative of future results. It's just the best data set we have to work on. Lynch should get a hefty workload Thursday night.

Wide Receiver

Similarity: Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears (FanDuel: $8,000, DraftKings: $6,300)

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

Jeffery has become as close to a constant as possible in this frustrating Bears passing game. He's made a touchdown reception in three of his last four games, helping salvage some up-and-down yardage totals. Given the way Brandon Marshall has struggled this season, Jeffery is at least the far superior option within this offense.

For daily leagues, it's mostly a salary call. Dez Bryant costs $1,600 more in DraftKings leagues and $800 more in FanDuel. Calvin Johnson's ongoing injury issues make him a bit of a risk, and Jeremy Maclin has quietly struggled since Sanchez entered the starting lineup.

There aren't many elite options with only six teams in action. Jeffery fits the cost/ceiling ratio the best of any player.

Similarity: Golden Tate, Detroit Lions (FanDuel: $7,900, DraftKings: $6,600)

Stephan Savoia/Associated Press

Pure logic said Tate's production would fall off when Johnson returned. Stafford has a long history of locking onto Megatron regardless of coverage schemes, and Megatron has a habit of making Stafford look better than he is by bringing in those balls. Tate seemed more likely to regress into WR3 mode than keep his every-week start status.

That hasn't been the case so far. Tate has 247 yards in three games since Johnson's return, compared to 230 for the All-Pro. Johnson has received double-digit targets in each of those contests, but Tate has done so twice.

For as long as Johnson remains an intermittent practice presence, Tate is a fine option.

Difference: Jermaine Kearse, Seattle Seahawks (FanDuel: $4,800)

Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images

The Seahawks passing game misses Percy Harvin more than the front office could have imagined. Russell Wilson has gone over 200 yards passing twice in the six weeks since Harvin's departure. He'd hit that number three times in five games with Harvin around. Neither Doug Baldwin nor Jermaine Kearse has proven capable of handling top billing, and I don't expect one to emerge Thursday.

Adding Kearse here is all about cost (nonexistent) and the relative lack of difference between his and Baldwin's ceilings. Wilson will probably throw a touchdown pass. I'd say Kearse is near the top of the possible recipients list.

Difference: Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles (DraftKings: $6,800)

Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images

DraftKings' salary structure often makes it easier to create stronger on-paper teams, and this is the case here. Whereas FanDuel would laugh in your face at a Maclin-Jeffery-Tate trio (or at least make you start Tarvaris Jackson or something), Gore's nonexistent salary opens a slot here.

Maclin, as noted earlier, hasn't been lighting the world on fire with Sanchez under center. He's averaged 63.3 yards over the last three weeks, compared to 98.75 in games Foles started.

The Eagles haven't wildly changed their scheme, so this feels more like an anomaly than a trend. Maclin is bound to get open over the top sometime soon, and Dallas' secondary is weak enough to think it'll happen on Turkey Day.

Tight End

Similarity: Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles (FanDuel: $4,800, DraftKings: $3,200)

Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images

There aren't any elite tight ends in these games. Martellus Bennett has fallen off since his hot start, Jason Witten is finally showing his age and Vernon Davis has been painfully absent from box scores this season. Any of the starters listed could finish with 60 yards and a touchdown or 20 yards on two receptions.

When given the choice between relatively similar options, always go with the cheapest one with whom you feel comfortable. Ertz fills that void, especially with a chance of double-dipping with him and Sanchez.

Kicker

Difference: Dan Bailey, Dallas Cowboys (FanDuel: $5,000)

I would typically advise going with the cheapest option here, but Robbie Gould hasn't made a field goal since Oct. 12. No thanks.

Bailey is both good and the next cheapest option.

Defense

Similarity: Chicago Bears (FanDuel: $4,900, DraftKings: $3,200)

The Bears have been a historically abhorrent defensive team at points this season. The Lions have scored 15 points in the last two weeks and haven't topped the 24-point mark since Week 1. Something has to give.

It's worth a roll of the dice on Chicago given the strength of the Dallas-Philly offenses and the small turnover rate for Seattle and San Francisco.

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter