How Can Kyle Orton Navigate Buffalo Bills to Playoffs?

The Buffalo Bills have a chance to make the playoffs. It's been a while since we've been able to say that this late in the season, but at 6-5, their road to the postseason will be a difficult one.

They will probably need to win at least four of their final five games to get there, and they have the talent to do it. Their defense is one of the best in the league across the board. Their offense has skill-position playmakers to help move the ball.

The only thing they need is continued competent play at the quarterback position.

Final result	Cmp %	YPA	Rating
Win (4)	70.4	7.8	109.5
Loss (3)	60	6	81.8
Total	65.4	7	96.2

Since being inserted as the starter in Week 5, Kyle Orton has been efficient—not deadly, not dreadful, but effective. The Bills have proved they can win when Orton provides them with that level of play, but Orton needs to stay above that baseline in order to not be the reason they lose.

The team has only won one game in which Orton's completion percentage dipped lower than 61 percent (vs. New York Jets, Week 8). Likewise, the team has only lost one game in which Orton's completion percentage was above 61 percent (vs. New England Patriots, Week 6). 

The numbers were similar when EJ Manuel was the starter: The Bills won both games in which Manuel completed more than 60 percent of his throws, and lost both games when he did not.

The league average completion percentage for the season is 62.9. The Bills don't even need their quarterback to be above average to win. As long as the Bills are getting competent play at quarterback, they can continue to win down the stretch.

Opponent	Comp %	YPA	Rating
Browns	58.3	6.5	75.4
Broncos	62.5	6.1	85.7
Packers	60.9	6.9	80.2
Raiders	65.7	7.3	100
Patriots	58.1	7	82

The bigger question is whether that can continue in what will be a brutal stretch to cap off the 2014 season. 

For his career, Orton has fluctuated between serviceable and subpar. In games where Orton attempts at least 10 passes, he has completed at least 60 percent of his throws 42 times and fewer than 60 percent of his throws 38 times.

Orton has already been up-and-down this season, and mostly, those ups have been against inferior competition and the downs have been against better opponents. The only exception is Orton's performance against the Detroit Lions in Week 5, when Orton went 30-of-43 for 403 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He had two rough outings against the Kansas City Chiefs (No. 1 in total pass defense) and Miami Dolphins (No. 4) before getting out of his funk against the Jets (No. 14). 

Yet, despite his struggles, he's still been one of the more efficient quarterbacks in the league this season. 

That being said, efficiency may not be enough on its own. The Bills need to improve in the red zone, where they have been one of the league's worst offenses this season. They had a streak of 21 straight possessions without a touchdown, which they finally snapped on their first possession against the Jets on Monday.

The Bills have scored a touchdown on only 42.1 percent of their trips to the red zone this season. That is the worst percentage in the league and is even better thanks to two games against the Jets, in which the Bills scored on a combined seven of nine trips inside the 20-yard line. Outside of those two games, the Bills have scored on only nine of 29 trips to the red zone.

As good as the Bills defense has been, it's not been good enough to consistently win games on its own. The Bills are 2-4 when they score 17 points or fewer, and are 4-1 when scoring 21 points or more. 

The offense will need to capitalize when it gets opportunities to score, and fortunately, only one of their remaining opponents (the Green Bay Packers) features a stout red-zone defense. All the others are middle-of-the-pack or worse in red-zone defense.

It would be a tall order for the Bills to win four of their remaining five games to make the playoffs, but they have proved that they can win games as long as their quarterback play is efficient. If Orton can stay above the line, and if the red-zone offense can improve down the stretch, they have what it takes to be one of the final six teams remaining in the AFC.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats obtained via Pro-Football-Reference.com.

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