Week 13 NFL Picks: Predictions on Vegas' Midweek Betting Odds and Lines

When it comes to NFL betting lines, home-field advantage offers a powerful edge.

Ever look at a spread and wonder why a seemingly lopsided contest warrants such a tiny number? More often than not, the light favorite or surprising underdog must conquer its adversary on the road.

Nobody likes airports or drunk fans yelling at you. The venue matters, but it's not like baseball, where every stadium features different dimensions that tangibly impact the outcome. The Seattle Seahawks don't actually get to use 12 players at CenturyLink Field.

Don't ignore home-field advantage, but don't weigh it too heavily when the superior squad travels to an unfamiliar terrain. Expect the road teams to prevail in these three NFL contests.

Date	Away	Home	Spread*	Prediction
Thur., 11/27	Chicago Bears	Detroit Lions	DET -7.5	23-14 DET
Thur., 11/27	Philadelphia Eagles	Dallas Cowboys	DAL -3	34-27 DAL
Thur., 11/27	Seattle Seahawks	San Francisco 49ers	Even	17-16 SEA
Sun., 11/30	San Diego Chargers	Baltimore Ravens	BAL -7	27-20 BAL
Sun., 11/30	Cleveland Browns	Buffalo Bills	BUF -2.5	23-21 BUF
Sun., 11/30	Tennessee Titans	Houston Texans	HOU -7	14-13 TEN
Sun., 11/30	Washington Redskins	Indianapolis Colts	IND -10.5	30-17 IND
Sun., 11/30	New York Giants	Jacksonville Jaguars	NYG -2.5	27-13 NYG
Sun., 11/30	Carolina Panthers	Minnesota Vikings	MIN -2.5	20-16 MIN
Sun., 11/30	New Orleans Saints	Pittsburgh Steelers	PIT -3	34-28 PIT
Sun., 11/30	Oakland Raiders	St. Louis Rams	STL -7.5	23-20 STL
Sun., 11/30	Cincinnati Bengals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	CIN -4	23-13 CIN
Sun., 11/30	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	ARI -2.5	20-14 ARI
Sun., 11/30	New England Patriots	Green Bay Packers	GB -3	31-27 NE
Sun., 11/30	Denver Broncos	Kansas City Chiefs	Even	30-24 DEN
Mon., 12/1	Miami Dolphins	New York Jets	MIA -5.5	24-6 MIA

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons

At first glance, this one is a no-brainer. It's an insult to the 9-2 Arizona Cardinals, who are barely favored to conquer the 4-7 Atlanta Falcons on the road. What do the oddsmakers see there to make this a game?

Everyone should know better than to treat the Cardinals as the class of the NFC. Although they're 5-2 against teams with winning records, they hold a point differential of minus-four over that stretch. A No. 25-ranked offense now down its starting quarterback doesn't shout "Super Bowl."

Pro Football Focus' Mike Clay tracked Arizona's offensive progress with Drew Stanton at the helm over Carson Palmer.

The Georgia Dome factor also makes a difference, at Matt Ryan wields 8.66 yards per attempt at home compared to 6.24 on the road. Not including the London game that treated Atlanta as the home team, Ryan has averaged 319.5 passing yards per game in four contests inside the Georgia Dome. 

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Regression is coming for the Cardinals, but not against the Falcons, who have yet to win a game outside of the embarrassing NFC South. Ryan will move the ball against Arizona, but Atlanta's NFL-worst defense can't shut anyone down, including Stanton.

Losses are on the horizon when the Cardinals play the Kansas City Chiefs, Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers, but the Falcons will squander a close game behind an atrocious defense and questionable game management from head coach Mike Smith.

New England Patriots (+3) at Green Bay Packers

The New England Patriots are tied for an NFL-best at 9-2 after winning seven straight games. They lead the league in point differential after topping the Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts and Detroit Lions by more than 20 points each in their past three games.

The last time they exuded such dominance over a short stretch, per ESPN Stats & Info, they finished the regular season 16-0.

They're underdogs heading into Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers.

If these two championship contenders were clashing in Foxborough, New England would certainly enter the favorite instead. Both clubs are undefeated at home this season, and Aaron Rodgers is a wizard in Green Bay, as depicted by MassLive.com's Kevin Duffy.

Playing four of their first six games on the road probably fueled the Patriots' slow start, yet that didn't seem to matter in Indianapolis, when they stymied the NFL's best offense to 322 total yards. That came a week before they plotted 439 yards and 34 points on Detroit's No. 3 defense. The Patriots are very good.

The difference between these two top-tier Super Bowl contenders: The Patriots have flexed their muscles against the league's best, and Green Bay hasn't. In four games against winning clubs, the Packers are 2-2, with their signature victory coming against the Mark Sanchez-led Philadelphia Eagles.

New England has decimated the three other AFC division leaders by a combined 70 points. While Green Bay is vulnerable against the run, Bill Belichick's club has no gaping holes to exploit. Even on the road, count on the Patriots to reign supreme.

Denver Broncos (Even) at Kansas City Chiefs

The narrative will paint the Chiefs as the team starving for a win. A loss puts them two games back in the AFC West with the head-to-head tiebreaker going to the Broncos. At 7-5, they'd be gasping for air in a crowded playoff picture.

But don't buy into the "who wants it more" hoopla. Obviously, Denver wants to win as well, as a victory gives them a divisional cushion while keeping them on track for a first-round bye. Defensive tackle Terrance Knighton explained the showdown's importance to The Denver Post's Troy E. Renck.

"

We're desperate for a win. We're a hungry team. We want to separate ourselves in the division. We want to have the seeding we want so everybody has to come through Denver in the playoffs. Obviously them coming off an upset loss (to Oakland), a team they expected to beat, they'll be juiced at home.

"

When these teams met in Week 2, Denver edged out a 24-17 victory on the strength of three Peyton Manning passing touchdowns. While the Chiefs gained 380 total yards to the Broncos' 325, Denver orchestrated a more efficient 7.1 yards per play to Kansas City's 5.1.

Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

Jamaal Charles did not suit up for that pivotal bout, but understudy Knile Davis delivered 79 yards and two scores on 22 carries. With the star running back in action, head coach Andy Reid will once again challenge Denver's No. 2 rushing defense.

Denver touts an elite passing offense and rushing defense. Kansas City boasts a superstar running back and No. 1 passing defense. Don't be surprised if Denver goes against the norm and heavily utilizes C.J. Anderson against a defense that surrenders an NFL-worst 5.0 yards per carry.