Neil Redfearn Won't Guide Leeds United to the Championship Playoffs

Neil Redfearn was appointed as Leeds United manager on 1 November 2014. It's not the first time Redfearn has led the team—he has been caretaker manager on three occasions prior to this appointment. Leeds is a big club with plenty of history, and it would be a welcome addition to the Premier League. Unfortunately, however, a playoff push is unlikely for the foreseeable future.

Redfearn's three caretaker manager spells wrought relatively positive results. He took charge upon the sacking of Simon Grayson and produced a record of two wins and two defeats from four games. He returned as caretaker for one match—a defeat to Charlton after Neil Warnock's sacking—and he returned again after David Hockaday was sacked at the start of this season, winning three and drawing one from four games.

In total, Redfearn's spells as caretaker manager collectively produced five wins, one draw and three defeats from nine matches. That's not amazing but not specifically bad.

Upon his appointment as manager, Redfearn was full of the optimism typical of a man who has landed himself the Leeds hot seat. As per the BBC, he stated:

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"I asked (chairman Massimo Cellino) if he sees me as the future and he said he does, which is great for me. ... I have been here six years in total and have put in a lot of hard work. There is the caveat that I can go back to the academy if it does not work out, but I am very proud."

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Other positives that people may point to regarding Redfearn would include his work with the Leeds academy, which Redfearn alludes to above. During his time in charge of the academy, several quality players broke through to the first team, including Fabian Delph, Tom Lees, Sam Byram and Alex Mowatt.

Managing a youth academy, however, is a completely different job to managing a first-team squad. For a start, the players are older and more set in their ways, and therefore they are less able to adapt to new coaching methods.

Since Redfearn was given the manager's job full-time, Leeds have won one of four games. They also drew once and lost twice. It's not stellar form, but the problems with managing Leeds extend to issues beyond the manager's control—and it has been that way for many years.

Current owner Massimo Cellino has been in charge for less than a year, but he has already wielded the axe on three managers: Brian McDermott, Hockaday and Darko Milanic. The latter two were given just six games each to prove themselves. In a previous spell at Cagliari, Cellino sacked 36 managers in just 22 years, per the BBC.

Cellino's is a short-term approach that does not bode well (given that Leeds have been on a gradual decline since the sacking of Simon Grayson in early 2012 and thus will need a long-term plan to steady the ship and launch a genuine promotion push).

Under Grayson, Leeds earned promotion back to the Championship—where they just missed out on the playoffs while also beating rivals Manchester United away in the FA Cup. Grayson's 49.7 percent win record is considerably better than any manager who has taken charge since.

Warnock and McDermott had win records of 36.51 percent and 37.04 percent, respectively, while Hockaday had a 33.33 percent record from just six games in charge. Milanic, of course, won none of his six matches in charge (and thus his win record was a big, fat 0 percent).

The reasons for the decline include not just the level of managerial turnover, but also the sale of quality players. Season after season, going back to Ken Bates' time as owner of the club, Leeds have sold their best players and failed to adequately replace them.

Fabian Delph left in 2009 for £8 million. One year later, Jermaine Beckford left on a free transfer—but it would only get worse from there.

In the 2011-2012 season, Leeds allowed Bradley Johnson to depart on a free transfer and sold Kasper Schmeichel to Leicester for £1 million, Max Gradel to Saint Etienne for £1.7 million and Jonny Howson to Norwich for £2 million. Over the course of this period, Leeds went from challenging in the Championship playoffs to finishing 14th in the league.

This trend only continued in the following years, with the likes of Robert Snodgrass and Luciano Becchio moving to Premier League clubs. Leeds, meanwhile, finished 13th and then 15th in the Championship.

Last weekend, Leeds lost to Blackburn Rovers. The team they fielded included just four players who were part of the first team last season. This only goes to show the club's inconsistency, with high annual turnover of players as well as managers.

The flight of quality players from the first team has left this Leeds side looking arguably worse than it did when it got promoted to the Championship in 2010. Add to this the fact that there is complete uncertainty about where the club goes next under Cellino's control.

These simply are not conditions for a playoff push. Indeed, the club has other concerns. Via the Daily Mirror's Jon West, Ray Fell—the chairman of Leeds supporters' club—said, "I hope Leeds don't turn into a laughing stock."

The problems at Leeds are not just about Neil Redfearn (albeit his record doesn't exactly inspire). Clearly the club is blighted by other off-pitch issues that will conspire to prevent its return to the Premier League. Until they are rectified, the manager will have little impact.