Fantasy Football Week 13: Rankings, Projections and Waiver-Wire Tips

I'm not sure we can list all the awesome things about this week without it getting monotonous, but, hey, let's try it anyway. No more bye weeks; no more bye-week replacements; three Thursday games; fried turkey; glorious, glorious stuffing; pie; a non-terrible Lions team that won't ruin one-third of the Thanksgiving schedule; a non-terrible Cowboys team that won't ruin another third; second helpings; a short work week; grandpa's opinion on politics.

OK, maybe the last one isn't so great. Maybe that's just the karma for all the good things that happen for football fans and Americans in general on Thanksgiving week. And, yeah, you could be a Jaguars fan and therefore feel miserable for all weeks that involve football.     

But for the rest of us, Shmoney Dance! The lack of byes and general lack of high-profile injuries should make for a relatively straightforward fantasy week. Start your stars, sit your scrubs and please, dear lord, would you cut Michael Floyd already?

Enough with the sadness. Let's get ready for an awesome Week 13 with a look at what to expect over the next week from a fantasy perspective. 

Thursday, Nov. 27	Time (ET)
Sunday, Nov. 30	Time (ET)
Monday, Dec. 1	Time (ET)
Chicago at Detroit	12:30 p.m.
Philadelphia at Dallas	4:30 p.m.
Seattle at San Francisco	8:30 p.m.
Washington at Indianapolis	1 p.m.
Tennessee at Houston	1 p.m.
Cleveland at Buffalo	1 p.m.
San Diego at Baltimore	1 p.m.
NY Giants at Jacksonville	1 p.m.
Cincinnati at Tampa Bay	1 p.m.
Oakland at St. Louis	1 p.m.
New Orleans at Pittsburgh	1 p.m.
Carolina at Minnesota	1 p.m.
Arizona at Atlanta	4:05 p.m.
New England at Green Bay	4:25 p.m.
Denver at Kansas City	8:30 p.m.
Miami at NY Jets	8:30 p.m.

(Note: Please keep in mind any highlighted players when checking out the rankings; it means they're either an injury risk heading into Week 13 or are on the schedule for Monday night.) 

Rank	Player	Projections
1	Andrew Luck, IND	25 Points
2	Aaron Rodgers, GB	22 Points
3	Peyton Manning, DEN	22 Points
4	Drew Brees, NO	20 Points
5	Tony Romo, DAL	19 Points
6	Tom Brady, NE	19 Points
7	Ben Roethlisberger, PIT	17 Points
8	Matt Ryan, ATL	17 Points
9	Mark Sanchez, PHI	16 Points
10	Cam Newton, CAR	16 Points
11	Russell Wilson, SEA	16 Points
12	Ryan Tannehill, MIA	15 Points
13	Philip Rivers, SD	15 Points
14	Matthew Stafford, DET	15 Points
15	Eli Manning, NYG	14 Points
16	Colin Kaepernick, SF	14 Points
17	Robert Griffin III, WAS	14 Points
18	Jay Cutler, CHI	14 Points
19	Drew Stanton, ARI	13 Points
20	Joe Flacco, BAL	13 Points

Top Dog: Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts

Luck had 253 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's win against the Jaguars. It was only the second time all season he'd had less than 300 yards passing or fewer than two touchdowns, and the first time he'd done the trick in the same game. 

Odds are that won't be happening again.

Washington had the league's 29th-ranked pass defense according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric coming into this week. While that number may improve a bit after the team held Colin Kaepernick to a rather nondescript performance, Washington is still out there closing its eyes and hoping David Amerson and Bashaud Breeland morph into an elite cornerback duo overnight.

Probably not gonna happen against the league's most prolific passing attack.

Sleeper: Mark Sanchez, Philadelphia Eagles

Michael Perez/Associated Press

Sanchez has thrown for more than 300 yards in each of his three games as an Eagles starter. He's generally looked Folesian, with a mix of plays both inspiring and confounding. In no way has Sanchez done anything to remain Philadelphia's starter long term, but he's done enough to hang on the edge of every-week start-dom as long as he has the job.

The Eagles head to Dallas on Thursday to take on a Cowboys defense that allowed 338 yards and three touchdowns to Eli Manning last week. While different schematically, the Giants and Eagles both employ offensive philosophies based on quick-hit passes designed to set up yards after the catch. Dallas' defense has slowly been exposed after a solid start and should allow for Sanchez to turn in a fourth straight 300-yard outing.

Beware: Robert Griffin III, Washington

Nope. No thanks. Nuh-uh. Not a chance. Won't catch me near this situation. NOOOOOOO WAY.

Rank	Player	Projection
1	DeMarco Murray, DAL	20 Points
2	Arian Foster, HOU	19 Points
3	Le'Veon Bell, PIT	19 Points
4	Jamaal Charles, KC	18 Points
5	Matt Forte, CHI	16 Points
6	LeSean McCoy, PHI	16 Points
7	Justin Forsett, BAL	15 Points
8	Alfred Morris, WAS	15 Points
9	Mark Ingram, NO	14 Points
10	Marshawn Lynch, SEA	14 Points
11	Eddie Lacy, GB	13 Points
12	Tre Mason, STL	12 Points
13	Denard Robinson, JAX	12 Points
14	Andre Ellington, ARI	12 Points
15	Jeremy Hill, CIN	11 Points
16	Isaiah Crowell, CLE	11 Points
17	Rashad Jennings, NYG	10 Points
18	Ryan Mathews, SD	10 Points
19	C.J. Anderson, DEN	9 Points
20	Frank Gore, SF	9 Points
21	Lamar Miller, MIA	9 Points
22	Giovani Bernard, CIN	9 Points
23	Jerick McKinnon, MIN	8 Points
24	Daniel Herron, IND	8 Points
25	Terrance West, CLE	7 Points
26	Joique Bell, DET	7 Points
27	Trent Richardson, IND	6 Points
28	Shane Vereen, NE	6 Points
29	LeGarrette Blount, NE	5 Points
30	Steven Jackson, ATL	5 Points

Top Dog: DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys

Free-agent running backs never get paid anymore, but Murray and the Cowboys appear determined to make contract negotiations as hard as possible. Murray remains on pace to approach 2,000 yards following a 24-carry, 121-yard game against the Giants on Sunday, marking his 10th 100-yard performance of the season.

There is no skill position player more reliably effective. Murray's made himself an indispensable part of every fantasy lineup, a double-digit scorer in all but one week. The Eagles are better than advertised defensively—their mediocre yardage numbers are more an effect of their offensive pacing than any major deficiencies—but Murray is matchup proof. He'll be fine.

Sleeper: Daniel Herron, Indianapolis Colts

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

With Ahmad Bradshaw out for the season, many fixed their eyes on the Indianapolis ground game in Week 12. Would Trent Richardson become an every-down workhorse? Or would the Colts pluck a player off their depth chart and vault him into relevance?

Daniel Herron answered the question with a firm "latter." The former Ohio State star essentially took over the entire Bradshaw side of the playbook in Indy's split system. He had 65 yards on 12 carries and made five receptions for 31 yards. While it's worth noting that he lost a fumble, everyone on the Colts had a case of the dropsies Sunday. Herron's cough-up was one of six balls to reach the turf.

As it was with Bradshaw, Indianapolis seems set on splitting its touches down the middle between its two running backs. That limits the ceiling for Herron and Richardson, but both could be sneaky flex plays against Washington.

Beware: Patriots RBs

Jared Wickerham/Getty Images

Speaking of splits. Ugh. A week after turning Jonas Gray into a sudden superstar, Bill Belichick decided to thumb his nose at fantasy owners everywhere by not giving Gray a single snap. In his place was the recently acquired LeGarrette Blount, who rushed for 78 yards and two touchdowns on his 12 carries. The Patriots employed a ton of shotgun to pick apart the Detroit secondary, as Blount largely played run downs and Shane Vereen stayed on the field for most of the game.

It's impossible to tell what New England will do next. That trait is what makes Belichick and Co. so great, but it's also interesting from a fantasy perspective. For all we know Gray and Blount could finish with 20 carries apiece next week as the Patriots try exploiting Green Bay's shaky run defense. Or they could end up with two total.

The unpredictability factor is too great to trust any of them.

Rank	Player	Projection
1	Antonio Brown, PIT	18 Points
2	Demaryius Thomas, DEN	18 Points
3	Calvin Johnson, DET	18 Points
4	Jordy Nelson, GB	16 Points
5	Julio Jones, ATL	15 Points
6	Dez Bryant, DAL	15 Points
7	Jeremy Maclin, PHI	15 Points
8	Emmanuel Sanders, DEN	14 Points
9	A.J. Green, CIN	14 Points
10	T.Y. Hilton, IND	13 Points
11	Randall Cobb, GB	13 Points
12	Odell Beckham Jr., NYG	13 Points
13	Josh Gordon, CLE	12 Points
14	Mike Evans, TB	11 Points
15	Alshon Jeffery, CHI	11 Points
16	Brandon LaFell, NE	11 Points
17	Percy Harvin, NYJ	10 Points
18	Kelvin Benjamin, CAR	10 Points
19	Brandon Marshall, CHI	9 Points
20	Julian Edelman, NE	9 Points
21	Anquan Boldin, SF	9 Points
22	Sammy Watkins, BUF	8 Points
23	Anquan Boldin, SF	8 Points
24	Keenan Allen, SD	8 Points
25	Golden Tate, DET	8 Points
26	Roddy White, ATL	8 Points
27	Steve Smith, BAL	7 Points
28	Vincent Jackson, TB	7 Points
29	Martavis Bryant, PIT	7 Points
30	DeAndre Hopkins, HOU	7 Points
31	Mike Wallace, MIA	6 Points
32	DeSean Jackson, WSH	6 Points
33	Reggie Wayne, IND	6 Points
34	Andre Johnson, HOU	6 Points
35	Marques Colston, NO	6 Points
36	Jordan Matthews, PHI	6 Points
37	Kenny Stills, NO	5 Points
38	Jarvis Landry, MIA	5 Points
39	Dwayne Bowe, KC	5 Points
40	Greg Jennings, MIN	5 Points

Top Dog: Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers

There isn't much to say about Brown that hasn't already been said. He's among the league's best handful of receivers. He receives consistent targets from Ben Roethlisberger, who is having a fine season in his own right.

The Steelers, coming off a bye, host New Orleans this week. The Saints are 1-4 on the road and have one of the NFL's worst secondaries. Expecting a touchdown and at least 100 yards seems like the bare minimum here for Brown, who has not had less than 74 yards in any game thus far.

Sleeper: Keenan Allen, San Diego Chargers

Denis Poroy/Associated Press

Allen could have been justifiably dropped in standard leagues at multiple points this season. Five of his first six games saw the second-year wideout finish with five or fewer fantasy points. The lone exception, a 10-catch, 135-yard game against the Jaguars, felt like an outlier caused by a good matchup. Philip Rivers was spreading the ball around, Eddie Royal was challenging Allen for the team lead in targets and all signs pointed toward a sophomore slump.

Don't look now but Allen is quietly turning those expectations on their head. He's averaging 6.6 receptions and 69 yards over the Chargers' last five games, including a six-grab, 104-yard day against the Rams on Sunday. He now has 36 more targets than any San Diego pass-catcher, and the possibility of a second straight 1,000-yard season no longer seems out of reach.

Because he remains largely an intermediate target, Allen's ceiling is a little lower than some players in his tier. But it appears (for now) that he's back to what he was in 2013: a consistently solid flex play who can be a WR2 in PPR leagues.

Beware: DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, Washington

(See: Griffin, Robert)

Rank	Player	Projection
1	Rob Gronkowski, NE	13 Points
2	Jimmy Graham, NO	13 Points
3	Julius Thomas, DEN	11 Points
4	Antonio Gates, SD	8 Points
5	Greg Olsen, CAR	7 Points
6	Martellus Bennett, CHI	7 Points
7	Delanie Walker, TEN	7 Points
8	Dwayne Allen, IND	6 Points
9	Jared Cook, STL	6 Points
10	Travis Kelce, KC	5 Points
11	Mychal Rivera, OAK	5 Points
12	Owen Daniels, BAL	5 Points
13	Jason Witten, DAL	5 Points
14	Charles Clay, MIA	4 Points
15	Kyle Rudolph, MIN	4 Points

Top Dog: Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots

Gronkowski had his streak of three straight games with a touchdown snapped Sunday, finishing with 78 yards on five receptions. That was still good enough to tie him for the fifth-best fantasy day among tight ends heading into Monday Night Football.

Tight end is a dumpster fire. With Julius Thomas sitting out with an ankle injury, fantasy owners were left without one of the three reliably effective players at the position. Thomas has a chance to be back next week, which gives him a top-three ranking by default.

Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham also take the two top spots by default. And, of course, because both are awesome at football. There's just not much illuminating information available at tight end.

Sleeper: Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings

USA TODAY Sports

Rudolph is still working his way back into the lineup after missing nearly two full months with a groin injury, but now might be the time to scoop him up. He made three receptions for 50 yards in Week 12's loss to the Packers and played 60 of 68 offensive snaps. That's a massive increase from the 14 he received against Chicago.

Teddy Bridgewater has been in need of a safety valve since taking over as starter, and Rudolph is a former Pro Bowler who can help underneath. It's doubtful Rudolph becomes a dominating force down the stretch, but most owners can settle for semi-effective at tight end.

Beware: Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

USA TODAY Sports

Everyone's favorite tight end sleeper has one touchdown in his last six games. He plays for the Chiefs, who appear to enjoy touchdown passes about as much as the Internet liked Iggy Azalea winning favorite rap/hip-hop album and best rap artist at the American Music Awards.

Until he starts scoring semi-regularly or begins receiving an abundance of work, Kelce is more of an idea than an actual every-week start.

Rank	Team	Opponent	Projection
1	Cincinnati Bengals	at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	12 Points
2	New York Giants	at Jacksonville Jaguars	12 Points
3	Houston Texans	vs. Tennessee Titans	12 Points
4	St. Louis Rams	vs. Oakland Raiders	11 Points
5	Miami Dolphins	at New York Jets	11 Points
6	Seattle Seahawks	at San Francisco 49ers	9 Points
7	Detroit Lions	vs. Chicago Bears	9 Points
8	Carolina Panthers	at Minnesota Vikings	8 Points
9	Jacksonville Jaguars	vs. New York Giants	8 Points
10	Buffalo Bills	vs. Cleveland Browns	7 Points
11	Indianapolis Colts	vs. Washington	7 Points
12	Atlanta Falcons	vs. Arizona Cardinals	6 Points
13	Denver Broncos	at Kansas City Chiefs	6 Points
14	Tennessee Titans	at Houston Texans	6 Points
15	San Francisco 49ers	vs. Seattle Seahawks	6 Points

Top Dog: Cincinnati Bengals

Left for dead by some after their 24-3 loss to Cleveland three weeks ago, the Bengals have rebounded their last two games. They've held New Orleans and Houston to a combined 23 points despite being away from Cincinnati and should come away with a third straight win this week in Tampa Bay.

The Buccaneers' dream of an inexplicable NFC South title was likely laid to rest by the Bears on Sunday. Their offense has been a dumpster fire for most of the season outside a few fun deep throws to Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, a trend that seems likely to continue against Cincinnati's deep secondary.

Sleeper: New York Giants

The Giants are owned in less than five percent of ESPN.com leagues and face the Jaguars. This is a goldmine for people who enjoy streaming defenses based on matchup.

Beware: Denver Broncos

Denver gave up 36 points to the Dolphins and has struggled to get stops against teams from cities other than Oakland for the last month. The Chiefs are far from an elite offensive team, but they know the ins and outs of the Broncos schematically. This has the makings of a close game you want no part of from a defensive fantasy perspective.

Rank	Player	Projection
1	Cody Parkey, PHI	13 Points
2	Stephen Gostkowski, NE	12 Points
3	Adam Vinatieri, IND	12 Points
4	Dan Bailey, DAL	11 Points
5	Mason Crosby, GB	11 Points
6	Matt Bryant, ATL	11 Points
7	Caleb Sturgis, MIA	10 Points
8	Shayne Graham, NO	10 Points
9	Cairo Santos, KC	9 Points
10	Dan Carpenter, BUF	9 Points
11	Nick Novak, SD	9 Points
12	Steven Hauschka, SEA	8 Points
13	Phil Dawson, SF	8 Points
14	Justin Tucker, BAL	7 Points
15	Shaun Suisham, PIT	7 Points

(Weekly reminder that you have a SLIGHTLY better chance at predicting kicker production than winning the Powerball. Again: SLIGHTLY. We'll keep this quick.)

Top Dog: Cody Parkey, Philadelphia Eagles

Kicked five field goals Sunday and has been good all season. Hard to find many faults.

Sleeper: Caleb Sturgis, Miami Dolphins

Kicked zero field goals Sunday, but that's not indicative of his season-long trends. He'd had at least two field goals in his previous five games.

Beware: Brandon McManus, Denver Broncos

Attempted a field goal Sunday that had his teammates doing this afterward. It's probably not a great sign when your teammates are so demonstrably angry after you make a mistake.

Waiver-Wire Advice

Here is a list of players owned in 50 percent or less of ESPN.com standard leagues who deserve a roster spot:

Player	Position	Team	Ownership
Ryan Tannehill	QB	Miami Dolphins	49.6%
LeGarrette Blount	RB	New England Patriots	20.1%
Daniel Herron	RB	Indianapolis Colts	15.1%
Latavius Murray	RB	Oakland Raiders	10.1%
John Brown	WR	Arizona Cardinals	25.4%
Jarvis Landry	WR	Miami Dolphins	11.2%
Kyle Rudolph	TE	Minnesota Vikings	16.0%

Grab Him Now: LeGarrette Blount (RB, New England Patriots)

USA TODAY Sports

We've already covered why none of the Patriots running backs is trustworthy this week, but Blount should nonetheless be atop every team's waiver claim list. He seamlessly fit back into New England's scheme despite having less than a week of practice with the team and appears to be one of those players only Bill Belichick can reach.

The Patriots have been a successful rushing team whenever they've wanted to be this season. Jonas Gray and Shane Vereen figure to continue receiving snaps—the latter especially on passing downs—but we saw last season what Blount can do in this offense.

It's possible he's a breakout player down the stretch.

Stash Him While You Can: Latavius Murray (RB, Oakland Raiders)

The Raiders can only hold onto nice things so long. Murray was injured minutes after breaking off one of the biggest runs in franchise history, an unfortunate incident that put an end to what was already a big day. Murray scored two touchdowns and had 112 yards on his four carries before exiting Thursday's win over the Chiefs with a concussion.

As with all players, he will now enter the NFL's concussion program and will not be cleared until he's checked out by an independent doctor. All of that clouds his status for Week 12, as does the Raiders' hesitance to name him the starter.

"Like any young player there is a progress you've got to see before you feel like you're going to put him out there in those situations," Raiders interim head coach Tony Sparano told reporters. "I've had to see that in practice, and little by little I've seen it and this has kind of been where it has gone."

Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew have been dreadful this season, and the Raiders are playing for absolutely nothing. The team should be falling over itself to see what it has in Murray. It's telling that Sparano was quick to pump the brakes.

Monitor the situation, but until Murray gets more than four carries in a game, keep him on the bench.

Player	Position	Team	Ownership
Reggie Bush	RB	Detroit Lions	58.4%
Ben Tate	RB	Minnesota Vikings	56.8%
Darren McFadden	RB	Oakland Raiders	51.3%
Pierre Garcon	WR	Washington	70.1%
Michael Floyd	WR	Arizona Cardinals	66.1%
Cordarrelle Patterson	WR	Minnesota Vikings	53.5%
Vernon Davis	TE	San Francisco 49ers	52.3%

Top Drop of the Week: Reggie Bush (RB, Detroit Lions)

Not quite sure what owners are waiting for here. Bush has appeared in two games in the past month-and-a-half, never staying in long before exiting with another ailment. It's not as if he was receiving an exorbitant workload or was especially effective before being injured. Bush is currently matching his career worst at 3.6 yards per carry, has scored only one touchdown and hasn't broken a play of longer than 28 yards.

The Lions for the last two seasons have been one of the worst rushing offenses in football. Joique Bell is a flex-play at best on most weeks, and backup running back Theo Riddick has done enough on third downs to deserve work whenever Bush comes back.

At best, Bush is part of the world's most mediocre three-person timeshare. At worst, he's clogging up a roster spot while he wastes the remaining moments of his 20s hobbling around the Detroit sideline. Either way, he's not worth a roster spot in any format.

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter