Tennessee Volunteers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores Complete Game Preview

Payback will be wearing orange-and-white-clad jerseys this Saturday as the Tennessee Volunteers seek bowl eligibility against in-state rival Vanderbilt.

The last time these two teams met in a frigid Neyland Stadium last November, the Vols needed to win each of their final two games to reach the postseason in head coach Butch Jones' first season.

But instead of UT heading to Kentucky with a solid chance, VU stunned the Vols with a 14-10 win.

Quarterback Patton Robinette—a graduate of nearby Maryville High School who wasn't offered a scholarship by the Vols—ran in a keeper from five yards away with 16 seconds left to secure the win. Vandy was the beneficiary of an overturned ball spot on fourth down previously to extend the drive.

The win gave then-coach James Franklin his second consecutive victory over the Vols. 

Much has happened since then. Franklin bolted for Penn State, only to be replaced by Stanford defensive coordinator Derek Mason. The Commodores have suffered a miserable season, sitting at 3-8 with wins over Massachusetts, Charleston Southern and Old Dominion by a combined 18 points.

The Vols again must beat Vanderbilt to go to a bowl game, but this year, that looks a little easier than it has in years past. Here's everything you need to know about the matchup.

Date: Saturday, Nov. 29

Time: 4 p.m. ET

Place: Vanderbilt Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee

TV: SEC Network

Radio: Vol Network, Vanderbilt IMG Sports Network, Sirius 113/XM 190

Spread: Tennessee by 15 points, according to Oddsshark.com.

Tennessee Keys to Victory

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Vertical Vols

The offense has remained vanilla for Joshua Dobbs since he took over, but with the pocket caving in and Missouri defending the run well, Tennessee needed to be able to throw the ball downfield.

That didn't happen.

With coach Butch Jones declaring star receiver Marquez North out for the year, according to Rocky Top Insider's Daniel Lewis, UT has to find somebody who can stretch the field. The most obvious choice is talented freshman Josh Malone, but he hasn't been able to yet.

Vanderbilt will almost certainly try to copy Mizzou's game plan for containing Dobbs. If so, the Vols need to find something vertically to make the Commodores pay.

Avoid the Laundromat 

After the Vols offensive line allowed just three sacks with Dobbs in the starting lineup, it looked like maybe the offensive line issues that had plagued UT had magically disappeared.

Following the Tigers crushing UT's line and pummeling Dobbs to the tune of six sacks (not to mention 12 total tackles for a loss), it's obvious that isn't the case. There are deep-rooted line issues that are irreparable this year.

But Vanderbilt's defensive line isn't anywhere near as potent as Missouri's. The 'Dores have just 17 sacks this season and are 12th in total defense. UT has to keep Dobbs' jersey somewhat clean. If it does, the Vols will roll.

Close the 'Dores

There's no question about one thing: This is Vandy's bowl game.

Mason will have his team fired up, and the Commodores want nothing more than to keep the Vols from bowling and winning their third straight. 

But this is a bad football team. UT is missing some key players on both sides of the ball, but this game has no business being close. Last year, the Vols played their worst game of the season; Dobbs was bad, the offense could get nothing going and there were special teams issues.

They can't let VU hang around. The crowd won't be an issue, as more Vols fans will be in Vanderbilt Stadium than Commordores fans. And the talent discrepancy is huge. Tennessee has to take care of business or it doesn't deserve a bowl.

Vanderbilt Keys to Victory

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Force Mistakes

Vanderbilt is 10th in the league in forced fumbles and dead-last in interceptions, according to CFBStats.com. Yet, somehow, the Commodores must generate mistakes from UT to have a chance.

Their offense isn't good enough to sustain drives against a big-play defense. So, VU's defense has to help things out.

There's almost no chance UT comes out flat. It knows what's at stake in this game. But Vanderbilt has some quality young players whom James Franklin recruited but haven't played up to their potential in Derek Mason's 3-4 system. This has to be a game in which they grow up, cause confusion and make Joshua Dobbs turn the football over on their side of the field.

Then, they have to convert those into touchdowns.

Bottle Up Hurd and Dobbs

Again, Vanderbilt isn't Missouri, but Mason wants to play Tennessee's offense exactly the way Gary Pinkel did:

Collapse the pocket, clog the rush lanes and make Dobbs beat them with his arm. 

Against the Tigers, Dobbs finished 24-of-37 for 195 yards, a touchdown and an unfortunate interception that was a perfectly thrown ball that caromed off the hands of Josh Malone.

The read-option game was smothered, and freshman running back Jalen Hurd never could quite break free, finishing with 40 yards on 11 carries. Tennessee was forced to throw him the football six times just to try to get him in the open field.

It wasn't an easy task, according to Mizzou defensive end Markus Golden, who told GoVols247's Wes Rucker (subscription required):

"It was real critical [to slow down Dobbs]. Dobbs, he's a good player, man. He's gonna have a good future. So to stop him tonight and slow him down was great for us, because that's what we needed to do to win the game."

When Dobbs was rolling against South Carolina and Kentucky, Hurd was producing 100-yard rushing games. That wasn't the case against Mizzou. If you slow down Dobbs, Hurd's production falls, too. VU has to accomplish this defensively.

Special Plays

As is the case in most areas, Vanderbilt hasn't been very good in the return game. The Commodores have, however, blocked a pair of kicks this year, so they're no strangers to making things happen on special teams.

If they can find a way to solve Tennessee's strong kick coverage units and give their offense short fields, Johnny McCrary is a capable quarterback. 

With neither an offense nor a defense that has been particularly good this season, VU needs to help itself on special teams.

Tennessee Players to Watch

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Pig Howard

After he dropped several catchable balls (despite catching eight balls for 90 yards), the junior receiver who leads UT's team in most receiving categories needs to rebound.

With Joshua Dobbs likely having to scramble around to avoid pressure, he needs help from his receivers. Howard is by far the most experienced with Marquez North sidelined, and while he isn't dynamic with the ball in his hands, he's normally dependable.

When he wasn't against the Tigers, it really hurt the offense. Howard must be the safety valve to help bail out Dobbs.

Todd Kelly Jr.

Safety play has really plagued the Vols for much of the season, especially in pass coverage.

For all the good things that junior Brian Randolph—whom coach Butch Jones called his defense's "quarterback" at halftime of Saturday night's ESPN telecast—and LaDarrell McNeil have done this year, they struggle defending the pass.

Yes, McNeil's career has been resurrected somewhat, but that's because he's a punishing hitter who plays well against the run. He is still a liability in the passing game, and he was one of the two Vols (along with usual culprit Justin Coleman) to get beat deep in back-breaking plays against Mizzou. 

Said GoVols247's Wes Rucker (subscription required):

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A good start from this group, at least from a pass-coverage standpoint, turned into a meltdown in the fourth quarter, when the Tigers connected for a couple of huge plays against the press-man coverage Tennessee had been using all night. The Tigers had 121 of their 230 passing yards in the fourth quarter. 

"

That's where TKJr. comes in. He's the uber-talented freshman who played while Randolph was suspended in the first half. Yes, he blows assignments, but he also has exceptional ball skills, and he is the future of the position.

That future needs to start now.

Curt Maggitt

Tennessee's vaunted pass rush finished with three more sacks against Mizzou. Though the Tigers upstaged them with six of their own, it's obvious UT is still strong in that area.

It's time for them to wreak havoc on Vanderbilt quarterbacks Johnny McCrary and (possibly) Stephen Rivers. Since Derek Barnett was featured last week, this time we'll go with Curt Maggitt. Both could have big games, but Maggitt is playing at an extremely high level lately.

The Vols need him to continue his dominance. The way he's playing, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him take a shot at the NFL a year early.

Vanderbilt Players to Watch

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Caleb Azubike

The 6'4", 260-pound junior outside linebacker has gone eight consecutive games without a sack, though that's normally his forte. 

He'd like nothing more than to get off the deck against the Vols.

Meanwhile, UT wants to simply shut him up. Azubike, who was strung along by the Vols during the recruiting process, hasn't shut up against Tennessee during his career. He crows often on Twitter, even chirping at recruits. Last season after VU's win, he tweeted:

"Sorry UT Tried To Warn Y'all. We Own The State!!! Maybe Next Time. Have Fun At Home This Christmas. #NoBowl"

Not surprisingly, he hasn't said much this year.

Johnny McCrary

The 6'4", 230-pound redshirt freshman quarterback is the most physically gifted and most talented of all three VU quarterbacks, and he has won the job after starting the year as the third-string signal-caller.

One of James Franklin's prize recruits, he has needed some development, but he has shown flashes.

His breakout game came against Old Dominion where he finished with 281 yards and five touchdowns, and he has nine scores and six picks on the year. 

He has struggled against quality opponents, but McCrary hasn't had much help. He possesses the kind of talent that can give UT fits if the Vols aren't careful.

What They're Saying

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When asked about how true freshman Jakob Johnson performed in his first start Saturday night, UT coach Butch Jones sidestepped the question a bit.

Though he said the Vols played the same style they normally do, it was clear they missed All-SEC linebacker A.J. Johnson, who is suspended pending the result of a sexual-assault investigation. Jones told GoVols247's Ryan Callahan (subscription required) of Jakob Johnson:

"

We played our style of defense. I'll know a little bit more when I watch the video. I think it's too premature to say and comment on it because, just standing from the sideline, you don't have a real good view. But I thought he did do some good things. I thought our defense, for the most part, did some very good things. Again, it's third down, though. When we work to get ourselves in third down, we have to get off the field, particularly in third-and-long situations.

"

Vanderbilt.247Sports.com reporter Chris Smith (subscription required) didn't pull any punches following VU's 51-0 loss to Mississippi State.

He chided the Commodores for a lack of effort:

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Not sure if Vanderbilt knew there was a game to be played on Saturday night but the Mississippi State Bulldogs sure did. Whoever came off the bus down in Starkville yesterday for Vanderbilt was not a collection of college football players but it more looked like a high school team scared to be on the field with a superior opponent.

 

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The James Franklin Effect didn't produce anywhere near the amount of VU fans in Middle Tennessee as Tennessee fans, but a few of them have come out of the woodwork.

Vols sophomore outside linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin (who is a Clarksville native) has seen the effects of VU's two consecutive wins over the Vols, according to GoVolsXtra's Dustin Dopirak:

"I hated it," sophomore linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin said of losing last year's game. "I'm from middle Tennessee. When I go home, I gotta see that black and gold everywhere. I hate it. I won't let that happen this week."

Prediction

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Anytime your season bleeds down to one game in a do-or-die scenario, there is bound to be concern.

What if Vanderbilt plays its best game of the season, getting the most out of the talented young players who've struggled this season? What if the Vols lay an egg like they did last year? What if the loss to Missouri produces a hangover that carries over into the road game at Nashville?

All those things are possibilities, sure. But it would take a perfect storm for Vanderbilt to beat Tennessee this year.

The Commodores are simply an inferior team. They did come to play against Kentucky and Missouri, losing by just 10 points in both games. But they lost nonetheless. 

Tennessee would take a one-point win and waltz into a bowl game with no questions asked. But the Vols won't have to worry about that. This one's going to be much worse for VU. 

There's the element of payback, the fact that the Vols have taken care of business against lesser opponents all year and the belief that they'll respond to Butch Jones and rise to the importance of the occasion. This team is different this year. The Vols are destined for a bowl game, and they'll finish the job with ease.

Tennessee 38, Vanderbilt 16