NFL Picks: Week 12 Against the Spread (Street Smarts vs. Book Smarts)

All good things must come to an end. Just ask Ben Tate and LeGarrette Blount.

And me. 

For yours truly, there were two things: the success with my Seinfeld-inspired Bizarro picks and my ever-so-brief lead over pro bettor and founder of Big Time Sharps Bill Davis. Both lasted about as long as a break between plays in a Philadelphia Eagles game. 

But anything's possible in the world of the NFL this season (and the underworld of gambling on it). Therefore, let's chalk last week's picks up as a mulligan and tip our hat to the pro (AKA: "Book Smart").

Like a blizzard in November, it's time to sneak up and take over. I'm determined to figure out my own formula and win one for the common man.

(In fact, next week my next desperate strategy may involve you, the reader. Tweet me @Jeff_Glauser, convince me who to pick next week and you just may get featured here!)

So, with the suddenly hot Oakland Raiders as my inspiration, here we go, with lines courtesy of ESPN: 

Last Week

Davis: 3 correct picks

Glauser: 1 measly, lonely correct pick 

Total

Davis: 6 correct picks

Glauser: 5 correct picks

Davis Pick No. 1: Cleveland Browns (+3) at Atlanta Falcons

Matt Sullivan/Getty Images

"These two teams have been going in opposite directions since the beginning of the year. The Browns have reduced their standard deviations on both offense and defense and performed well. The Falcons have reduced their variability as well, but they have consistently graded mediocre at best on both sides of the ball." 

Pick against the spread: "The Davis Equation has Cleveland covering the three points against Atlanta."

Glauser Pick No. 1: Atlanta Falcons (-3) over Cleveland Browns

Matt Sullivan/Getty Images

Know what this game tells me? Vegas knows something I don't. 

Technically, the Falcons are tied for first place and technically the Browns are tied for last in their respective divisions. But that's like saying the NFC South is technically still a legitimate division. And yet that one intangible may be enough to keep Atlanta on its "A" game (or whatever game it has).

Pick against the spread: Look for Cleveland and Josh Gordon (in his long-awaited return) to go...well, up in smoke.

Davis Pick No. 2: Buffalo Bills (-3) over New York Jets

USA TODAY Sports

"The Jets have been allowing the quarterbacks around the league do whatever they want to them, even allowing completion percentages of 63 and 70 percent in their two wins. The only reason they defeated the Steelers is that they forced four turnovers and committed zero. The probability of that occurring again is highly unlikely." 

Pick against the spread: "The Davis Equation has the Bills defeating the Jets by more than three in Detroit."

Glauser Pick No. 2: Detroit Lions/New England Patriots Total: Over 48 Points

USA TODAY Sports

Let's take a look at the numbers: 

• The last time the Patriots scored fewer than 42 points was October 16. 
• The last time the total points in a Pats game was under 52 was September 21. 

Yes, the Lions are one of the lower-scoring teams in the league, but in order to keep up with New England, they'll have to take to the air and take full advantage of one of the NFL's best wide receiver tandems in Golden Tate and Calvin Johnson. 

Pick against the spread: Points! And lots of 'em. Well, at least 49 of 'em. 

Davis Pick No. 3: Tennessee Titans (+12.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Eugene Tanner/Associated Press

"Can a rookie quarterback defeat the Philadelphia Eagles at home? If your quarterback is Mark Sanchez, your probabilities go up. We have a long history from Sanchez, and his decision-making grades very poorly. Even though there is not a large amount of data on Zach Mettenberger, his in-game choices in college and now in the NFL grade well."

Pick against the spread: "The Davis Equation has the Titans keeping it closer than the line suggests."

Glauser Pick No. 3: Arizona Cardinals (+7) over Seattle Seahawks

USA TODAY Sports

The 9-1 Cardinals have officially reached Rodney Dangerfield status: They get no respect. And yet amid every obstacle that comes their way, all they do is keep winning. 

Another victory against the defending champs may solidify Arizona as a team of destiny. And sometimes you just need to let the universe do what it's going to do. 

Pick against the spread: In perhaps a season-defining matchup, the Cards will at least keep it close.

Davis Pick No. 4: St. Louis Rams/San Diego Chargers Total: Over 43.5 Points

Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images

"The Rams held Peyton Manning and the Broncos to seven points last week. Does that mean they will do the same to Philip Rivers and the Chargers, even with their poor offensive output as of late? The numbers say no. Even with San Diego's struggles, Rivers has thrown for 21 touchdowns and completed 67 percent of his passes this season."

Pick against the spread: "The Davis Equation has these two teams scoring more than 43.5 points combined."

Glauser Pick No. 4: Broncos (-7) over Miami Dolphins

Scott Cunningham/Getty Images

In the cult classic Over The Top (I dare you to find a better movie ever made about arm wrestling), Sylvester Stallone's character Lincoln Hawk says, "When I turn my hat around, it's like flipping a switch."

When the Broncos play at home this season, it's like they turn their collective hat around.

Outside Denver, Peyton and friends are a mediocre 2-3. However, in their own digs, they're a perfect 5-0 with an average margin of victory of 15 points. After losing two of the last three—all on the road—a return to the Mile High City following a month away may be just what the doctor ordered.  

Pick against the spread: I'm just excited that I was able to squeeze an Over The Top reference into this! Oh, and the Dolphins don't stand a chance. 

All quotes obtained from Bill Davis firsthand.