Week 12 NFL Picks: Tips, Odds and Over/Under Predictions for Sunday

With the last call on approach when it comes to Week 12 NFL odds, now is the time for bettors to pull the trigger.

Lines have settled a bit over the course of the last week as bettors and Las Vegas have played their hands. Of course, things got off to a sloppy start, with the Oakland Raiders taking down the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday Night Football, but good lines still litter the slate.

The upset for most will likely prove to be the biggest of the week, so be happy it is out of the way. Those who were burned can take an extra risk on the weekend games by playing some of the over/under lines.

That said, a few are certainly trap material, just like Thursday's game.

NFL Week 12 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread (O/U)	Pick ATS		Reason
Cleveland at Atlanta	ATL -3 (47)	Falcons	O	The Falcons are tough at home, and the Browns secondary will have no answers for Julio Jones.
Tennessee at Philadelphia	PHI -11 (49)	Titans	U	See analysis below.
Detroit at New England	NE -7.5 (48)	Lions	U	Tom Brady and Co. are on fire, but not enough to cover a big spread against an elite secondary.
Cincinnati at Houston	HOU -1 (43.5)	Bengals	U	Cincinnati is on the upswing at the right time as the offense continues to get healthy.
Green Bay at Minnesota	GB -9 (49)	Packers	O	Aaron Rodgers is unstoppable at this juncture, a trend that will continue against Minnesota's defense.
Tampa Bay at Chicago	CHI -6 (46)	Buccaneers	O	Josh McCown going against his old team does not sound like much, but it will produce an upset.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis	IND -14 (50.5)	Jaguars	O	Denard Robinson can help keep the ball out of Andrew Luck's hands to the point this large spread is just too much.
NY Jets at Buffalo	BUF -4.5 (39)	Jets	U	Michael Vick in the face of a great rush on the road is bad news.
Arizona at Seattle	SEA -7 (41)	Cardinals	O	Drew Stanton looks like Carson Palmer, while the Seahawks look nothing like defending champs.
St. Louis at San Diego	SD -5 (43.5)	Chargers	O	Philip Rivers can overcome a shaky defense at home when asked.
Washington at San Francisco	SF -9 (44)	49ers	O	San Francisco is back to form while Washington implodes. Easy.
Miami at Denver	DEN -7.5 (47.5)	Dolphins	U	See analysis below.
Dallas at NY Giants	DAL -3.5 (47.5)	Cowboys	O	DeMarco Murray is going to run wild on a shaky New York Giants defense.
Baltimore at New Orleans	NO -3.5 (50)	Ravens	O	New Orleans has shockingly lost two in a row at home, while Baltimore had a bye week to prepare for Drew Brees.

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and accurate as of 7 a.m. ET on Nov. 22.

Analyzing Tough Over/Under Calls

Miami at Denver (-7.5), Over/Under: 47.5

In a strange turn of events, Peyton Manning is the reason this particular over/under is difficult to figure out. 

Manning has been downright off over the past few weeks, which have seen the Denver Broncos lose two out of three. His turnover numbers have taken a staggering increase in that time span, and things hit rock bottom with just seven total points last week in a loss to St. Louis:

OPP	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	TD	INT
at NE	34	57	438	59.6	2	2
at OAK	31	44	340	70.5	5	2
at STL	34	54	389	63.0	1	2

Normally, a return home sounds like a great way to put to bed any issues and turn things around.

Against the Miami Dolphins, not so much.

The Dolphins quietly tout one of the league's best overall defenses, which ranks second against the pass and eighth against the rush. Brent Grimes and a superb secondary have limited Tom Brady to one passing touchdown, picked off Philip Rivers three times and held Matthew Stafford to 280 yards and just two scores, to name a few of the unit's noteworthy performances.

Manning certainly has the unit's full attention, as a note from defensive end Olivier Vernon indicates, per STATS LLC (via ESPN.com):

"

We just have to try to throw him off of his game early, try to get pressure on him and try to hit him as much as we can and force him to make bad throws. We've just got to get off the ball, time the snap and make sure we get pressure on him all game long. He has a very good line that's protecting him and he's a future Hall of Famer and we've got to throw all types of things at him that he wouldn't expect and mix it up.

"

Denver is no slouch on the defensive side, though. The team ranks second overall against the rush, meaning Von Miller and Co. can force Ryan Tannehill (2,354 yards, 17 touchdowns, seven interceptions) to the air in a noisy, cold environment.

Based on recent trends and the fact that Miami's defense has held strong through the air this season against most competition, this one figures to be a low-scoring affair.

Despite his recent sloppy play, Manning at home is tough to go against. But for the over/under, this looks like an obvious decision.

Prediction: Broncos 24, Dolphins 20

Tennessee at Philadelphia (-11), Over/Under: 49

USA TODAY Sports

Strange statement alert: In the same way Manning is the reason for a tricky over/under call above, the same applies to the Tennessee Titans vs. Philadelphia Eagles thanks to Mark Sanchez.

Sanchez is the man in control of Chip Kelly's explosive attack. His first foray as a starter went well too, as he threw for two scores and the team dropped 45 points on Carolina. Just last week, though, he threw a pair of touchdowns and interceptions, while the team scored just 20 points.

It just so happens that the Titans have a very good pass defense too. Ken Whisenhunt's secondary ranks ninth in the league with just 226.9 yards allowed through the air per game.

Where Tennessee struggles is against the rush, ranking 31st in that regard. Many bettors will throw cash down upon hearing that, as LeSean McCoy makes this an easy over call, right? Perhaps not, as Shady has been a shell of his former self this year, as NFL on ESPN illustrates:

Is a return home just what the doctor ordered for Sanchez and Shady?

Tennessee certainly has something to say about that. The offense has received new life over the course of the last few weeks with rookie Zach Mettenberger under center. Not only does he get to go against a Philadelphia defense that ranks 28th against the pass, but rookie back Bishop Sankey (395 yards, two scores) gets a rush defense that allows 114.7 yards per game.

That said, the rookie status of both should ring alarm bells. Racking up tons of yardage against a bad defense and keeping the Philadelphia offense off the field is one thing, but having the experience on the road in the cold to actually score touchdowns is another.

A grounded offense encounters a learning one Sunday in Philadelphia, with the only loser being those who bet the over.

Prediction: Eagles 28, Titans 17

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Pittsburgh and Carolina on bye.