Ranking the Top 10 Potential Impact Closers on the MLB Free-Agent Market
There are a lot of question marks when it comes to the MLB free-agent market for closers.
The class is headlined by American League All-Star David Robertson, but after that, nearly all of the late-inning options are attached to a red flag or two. What follows is a ranking of the top 10 potential impact closers on the free-agent block.
The most important factor taken into consideration in the ranking process was how effectively a given reliever pitched last year—and in the second half of the season in particular.
Another crucial part of the equation was whether the pitcher has a track record of successfully closing out games in the past. There was also an emphasis on the ability to produce swings and misses, as strikeouts are often required in high-leverage late-game situations.
There are 10 potential impact closers who crack this list. However, because the market is so light, in some cases, the key word is "potential." Remarkably, the reliever who claims the second spot in the rankings has just one big league save.
10. Luke Gregerson, RHP
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Briefly a member of the Oakland Athletics closing committee at the beginning of the 2014 season, Luke Gregerson didn't have a ton of success in the ninth inning.
However, the veteran right-hander does have plenty of experience getting crucial outs in the late innings. The 30-year-old has turned in a sub-3.00 ERA in four consecutive seasons and has totaled at least 70 innings of work in five of the last six seasons.
9. Jason Motte, RHP
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Jason Motte has excelled on the biggest stage, recording the final out of the 2011 World Series for the St. Louis Cardinals.
Since undergoing Tommy John surgery in May 2013, the right-hander simply hasn't been the same pitcher. He missed all of that season and appeared in just 29 games for the Cardinals in 2014. The results were seriously underwhelming. In 25 frames, the reliever dished out nine free passes and was tagged for seven home runs.
8. Jim Johnson, RHP
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The 2014 season was an absolute train wreck for Jim Johnson.
The 2012 AL All-Star pitched his way out of the closer's job early in the season for the Athletics and was never able to get back on track. Oakland released the 31-year-old on the first day of August after he posted a 7.14 ERA in 38 contests, and he quickly caught on with the Detroit Tigers.
In Motown, the results weren't much better. In 16 games for the American League Central club, Johnson compiled a 6.92 ERA while walking 12 batters in 13 innings of work. Since his 2014 numbers were so ugly, it's easy to forget that Johnson actually locked up 101 saves for the Baltimore Orioles during the 2012 and 2013 seasons.
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7. Jason Grilli, RHP
4 of 10After a disastrous start to 2014 with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Jason Grilli turned his year around following a midseason trade to the Los Angeles Angels.
In 40 games, the reliever put up a 3.48 ERA and a 9.6 K/9 ratio. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports predicts that Grilli's second-half showing will result in the 38-year-old landing a two-year deal. Such an investment would be worth the risk if he can rediscover his 2013 form. That season, Grilli made the National League All-Star team, racking up 33 saves and posting a 13.3 K/9 ratio.
6. Casey Janssen, RHP
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Casey Janssen's contract year didn't go to plan. After recording a 1.23 ERA in the first half of 2014, Janssen posted a 6.46 ERA after the All-Star break.
That was a particularly bad time for the closer to fall apart, as he'd been a highly effective reliever for the past three-and-a-half seasons. Over that stretch, Janssen never posted an ERA higher than 2.56. That run of success will help balance out a disappointing end to the 2014 season as Janssen seeks a new employer.
5. Rafael Soriano, RHP
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Rafael Soriano was lights-out in the first half of 2014, as he posted a 0.97 ERA and converted 22 of 24 save opportunities.
The 34-year-old's season went sideways in July, however. Following the Midsummer Classic, Soriano put up a 6.48 ERA as he closed out just 10 of 15 games. That showing cost the right-hander his job as the Washington Nationals closer in September and is about to cost him a ton of money this offseason.
The best course of action for Soriano is to accept a one-year deal and try to rebuild his value before re-entering the market next offseason.
4. Sergio Romo
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After losing his job as the San Francisco Giants closer early in 2014, Sergio Romo spent much of the season pitching in the eighth inning.
However, the slider specialist does have a history of successfully closing out ballgames. In 2012, Romo secured 14 out of 14 save opportunities. The next season, he earned an NL All-Star nod, as he recorded 38 saves for the Giants.
While it remains to be seen if he'll be pitching in the eighth or ninth inning in 2015, Romo has put himself on track to rake in a three-year deal this offseason.
3. Francisco Rodriguez, RHP
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Francisco Rodriguez is about to cash in.
Last season, the closer piled up 44 saves for the Milwaukee Brewers while pitching on a one-year, $3.25 million deal. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports predicts that Rodriguez's 2014 showing will net him a two-year deal for $18 million. The 32-year-old's salary is definitely going up, but that's a generous figure considering how he tailed off in the second half of the season. Following the All-Star break, Rodriguez posted a 3.97 ERA.
2. Andrew Miller
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Andrew Miller was electric in 2014. While splitting the season between the Boston Red Sox and the Baltimore Orioles, the left-hander posted a 2.02 ERA and a 14.9 K/9 ratio in 72 outings.
After that dominant season, Miller's agent, Mark Rodgers, thinks the reliever has earned a promotion, as he explained via Jerry Crasnick of ESPN: "I think Andrew's evolution in the bullpen and his numbers this year fortify the belief in baseball that he's a closer-in-waiting—and maybe the time for waiting is over."
Based on the way that the offseason has unfolded so far, it sounds like Rodgers is right. According to Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports, Miller "already has multiple offers of at least three years."
As Morosi adds, it's looking "increasingly likely" that the reliever will net a four-year contract. If a team is willing to make such an investment in a bullpen arm, it seems like only a matter of time before that pitcher will become the closer.
1. David Robertson, RHP
10 of 10David Roberston claims the top spot on this list not just because of his impressive 2014 season, but also because he has been a highly consistent contributor out of the New York Yankees bullpen ever since he ripped off a 1.08 ERA in 2011.
Last year, Robertson stepped in for Mariano Rivera and reeled off 39 saves in 44 chances. General manager Brian Cashman called the switch from Rivera to Robertson "seamless," according to George A. King III and Dan Martin of the New York Post.
The 29-year-old is now set to cash in this winter. However, his options will be limited by his decision to reject a qualifying offer from the Yankees, which means he's attached to draft-pick compensation.
Note: All stats courtesy of MLB.com and Baseball-Reference.com. All videos courtesy of MLB.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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