Jets vs. Bills: Breaking Down New York's Game Plan
Just a few weeks removed from a thorough beating at the hands of the Kyle Orton-led Buffalo Bills in front of their home crowd, the New York Jets have a chance to redeem themselves with their new-look offense this coming Sunday.
Ironically enough, it was the Bills' six-turnover performance (three in less than one quarter against Geno Smith) that served as the catalyst of Smith's benching. The Bills were essentially handed a win last time these two teams met, but the Jets have completely retooled their offense since, looking as competitive as they ever have this season.
Meanwhile, the Bills' surprising relevance has begun to evaporate. Their heartbreaking loss to the Miami Dolphins last Thursday night has pushed their playoffs hopes to the edge of possibility. A loss to the Jets would all but put a feather in the cap of their respectable yet disappointing season.
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Both teams will be dealing with a unique weather situation. According to ProFootballTalk, as the Buffalo area is swallowed by snow this week, there is a possibility of the game not even starting on time. If the game does start on time, the weather appears to be clear, according to Weather.com, meaning Ryan's Jets should operate as if this will be a typical late-season Buffalo trip.
The Jets will have a slight advantage in any case, as the Bills have not been able to report for practice because of the extreme weather, as Chris Brown of BuffaloBills.com reports. Whether this has a significant impact on Buffalo's preparation remains to be seen.
Run the Rock
Just like the Jets, the strongest area on the Bills' roster is by far their defensive line. Their four-man front has kept them competitive all season long.
The big names are defensive end Mario Williams alongside defensive tackles Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus. However, it is Jerry Hughes, a once-disappointing first-round selection of the Indianapolis Colts, who has been a huge difference-maker for the Bills defense with nine sacks, six hits and 24 hurries on the season, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
How on earth will a Jets offensive line that has struggled in pass protection keep Michael Vick upright without him running in circles all afternoon? By keeping the ball grounded—particularly under the care of running back Chris Ivory.
Contrary to his typical performance, Vick has yet to turn the ball over in his first two starts—but the Jets would be wise not to push their luck. Operating an offense with a high-percentage of passes is setting Vick up for inevitable disaster against this Bills front.
Meanwhile, keeping the ball on the ground (and sustaining success doing it) tends to have an adverse effect on a pass rush. If a team is stealing chunks of easy yardage on the ground over and over, the defensive linemen are forced to abandon their pass-rushing dreams in lieu of their run responsibilities, taking a step off their explosiveness.
Regardless of who they are playing against, the Jets have recently enjoyed a more sustainable offense with a balanced ratio of running and passing plays:
| Kansas City Chiefs | 19 | 28 | Loss |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 36 | 18 | Win |
Even factoring in the fact that the Jets ran a lot against the Pittsburgh Steelers to preserve a lead, they still far outreached their passing attempts.
Keep Everything In Front
The most staggering aspect of the Jets' upset win over the Pittsburgh Steelers was how their ragtag secondary was able to keep up with the likes of Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton for nearly 58 minutes without allowing a touchdown.
Looking back, the Jets were able to have success against a red-hot Steeler offense because they simply keep everything in front of them. As much as it went against Ryan's aggressive philosophy, playing off-coverage as opposed on press-man coverage prevented the explosive Steelers from making game-changing plays in the blink of an eye.
Here, Marcus Williams and Phillip Adams are giving their receivers a ton of room off the line of scrimmage, ensuring they are in position to limit any completions made in their direction.
The Jets did yield a fair share of yardage on easy completions, but their strategy was ultimately a roaring success. They only allowed 10 points, seven of which came on a garbage-time touchdown to Martavis Bryant when Ryan caved in to his aggressive ways to leave his cornerbacks on an island.
While New York will not be facing anything near the caliber of quarterback of Ben Roethlisberger in Kyle Orton, Ryan would be best to mimic this same strategy against an explosive group of pass-catchers for the Bills.
Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods are not quite as explosive or proven as the group in Pittsburgh, but they are still massive mismatches for the Jets' no-name secondary and should be treated as such.
Feed Percy Harvin
The Bills have actually already had a taste of receiver Percy Harvin, who made his New York debut in the team's first meeting with the Bills. However, now that Harvin has had a chance to become more integrated into the Jets offense, New York will be able to use him in ways it never could in its first meeting with Buffalo.
Specifically, Harvin would serve the same purpose as the running game, using his speed on designed runs and sweeps to keep the members of Bills' defensive line on their heels, slowing them down when rushing the passer and defending the inside run.
The Jets can borrow one of the successful sweeps they ran against the Steelers on the first play of the game.
Off the snap, the Jets operate as if they are running a toss play to the right. Vick fakes the toss while Ivory and the offensive line move right, taking the entire Steeler defense with them.
Most importantly, the Jets are able to get the backside defensive end to drift out of position just enough, allowing Harvin to get to the edge.
Harvin's speed allows him to get to the edge with acres of field to work with, picking up an easy first down.
On some level, there is a reason why the Jets ran this play right at the start of the game. This type of trickery will sit in the back of a defender's mind, wondering if they were going to run the same play later on, subconsciously slowing him down. Next time, many of the defenders surely played their assignments more conservatively to not allow another big play because of overpursuit.
While the Bills may have more than doubled the Jets in terms of overall wins, this game plays well into the hands of New York, who seems to be improving by the week with Vick in at quarterback.
Throw in the fact that the Jets are coming off a bye week and the Bills have barely practiced this week, and New York has every reason to expect to get its third win of the season this Sunday to continue its late-season surge.
Advanced statistics provided by Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
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