College Football Playoff Rankings 2014: Week 13 NCAA Championship Predictions

Alabama's victory over Mississippi State was always going to shake up the rankings.  However, by propelling their way up to the No. 1 spot, the Crimson Tide, along with Oregon and Florida State, have separated themselves and set up a clear race for the fourth and final playoff spot.

If those aforementioned three teams win out, they will almost certainly be selected for the inaugural playoff.  However, no other team really enjoys that luxury, which should make for a wide-open and dramatic conclusion to the season.

Week 13 does not bring a clearly titanic matchup like last Saturday, but college football has always proved to be unpredictable.  Looking at the newly released committee playoff rankings, let's make some predictions for what may happen this upcoming weekend.

Top Four Remains Constant

The status quo is never particularly intriguing, but it's hard to envision an upset this weekend.  Oregon hosts 2-8 Colorado, Alabama gets a week to recover against FCS foe Western Carolina and Mississippi State will return to lick its wounds against 3-7 Vanderbilt.  

Florida State is the one team that may have even the slightest issues, hosting a 6-4 Boston College squad that upset USC earlier this season, but it is extraordinarily difficult to imagine the Seminoles tripping up at Tallahassee.

Thus, it would be surprising to see any shifts in the current order, barring unexpected difficulties from these teams.  The drama will pick up soon, however, as the Bulldogs and Tide will face their biggest rivals next Saturday.  Ole Miss and Auburn are surely disappointed to fall out of postseason consideration, but both are legitimate top-10 talents who will have the supreme motivation to foil their rivals' postseason hopes.

Oregon and Florida State are likely locked in until their respective conference championship games, which figure to represent their stiffest challenge until the postseason.  The Ducks will likely face one of the Pac-12 South quartet of USC, UCLA, Arizona or Arizona State, but with the higher seed hosting the game, Oregon gets the benefit of a game in Eugene.  

Indeed, with their strong outlook and prior resume, many are surprised that the Tide leaped over the Ducks for the No. 1 ranking:

The Bulldogs are the other intriguing team from the top four, as it is unclear if they will control their own destiny.  While a one-loss SEC team would be difficult to pass up, failing to earn the "conference champion" label, as Ohio State and TCU/Baylor likely will, could reflect poorly in the committee's eyes:

This Saturday serves as the calm before the storm for the top four.  We'll likely see a big mix-up before the end of the regular season, but it would be too bold to pencil in a loss given the quality of competition this weekend.

Game of the Week: Oklahoma State at No. 7 Baylor

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The one game that may have a chance to significantly shift the playoff implication kicks off in Waco, Texas, where the one-loss Bears will continue making their case as the best Big 12 team.  Baylor will hold its fourth-quarter comeback over TCU as self-evident of that truth, but in reality, the Bears must continue padding their resume in what will be a very close race.

Indeed, advanced metrics like Football Outsiders' Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) actually rank the Horned Frogs as the Big 12's best.  As the Fort Worth Star-Telegram's Mac Engel argues, the conference itself has precedent of overriding a head-to-head win between top contenders, as Oklahoma reached the 2008 national title game over Texas despite a loss:

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What we have found in any age and any system of college football is that timing, the score and convenience are also great deciders. There is nothing fair about this, and double standards rain.

Baylor’s win against TCU was in early October, meaning by the time the final regular-season rankings are released that victory will be two months old.

Baylor ultimately may jump TCU in the college football rankings, and the move can easily be justified, but to rely on the head-to-head argument guarantees nothing.

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This week, the Bears are facing a reeling but talented Oklahoma State squad.  The Cowboys have lost four consecutive games, giving up 38.0 points and 493.8 yards per game during the streak.  The two road games in that month-long malaise, against Kansas State and TCU, resulted in losses by a combined 90-23 score.  

However, the most head-scratching facet has been the offense's sudden demise, as the Cowboys have fallen to seventh in the 10-team Big 12 in points per game:

Nevertheless, the Pokes nearly took down Florida State in the season opener and have not missed a bowl game in eight years under Mike Gundy.  This is undoubtedly a game the Bears should win, but given Oklahoma State's track record, Baylor looks like the one playoff contender that might harbor at least some reservations heading into Saturday.