Fantasy Football Week 12: Early Fanduel, DraftKings Optimal Lineup Picks

There is a myth in some circles that the fantasy football week starts when the games kick off. Astute fantasy owners know that isn't true. You have to start planning everything for the next week as the current games are going on. 

While that may not be as imperative in a situation where you can build a different team each week, it does require similar scouting to just carrying a roster over from one week to another. You need to focus on matchups, history and present performance. 

Making the task even more difficult is trying to put together a roster on a budget. Fans love to criticize their favorite team's general manager for a harsh move, so this is how you put together a terrific Week 12 fantasy roster with a limited payroll. 

Quarterback

Player	Team	Opponent	Price
Jay Cutler	CHI	vs. TB	$8,800
Colin Kaepernick	SF	vs. WAS	$7,300
Joe Flacco	BAL	at NO	$7,800

It's rare that you want to put your trust in Jay Cutler, but sometimes the matchups are too rich to ignore everything else. The Chicago Bears quarterback had his second-best fantasy game of the year last week against Minnesota, throwing three touchdowns with 330 yards. 

As Chris Pianowski of Yahoo Sports noted, it was the way Cutler was throwing the ball that left encouragement moving forward:

"

The hits (and the rare misses) were classic Cutler. He wrote checks that only a strong-armed quarterback can cash, and he threw to ostensibly covered teammates, trusting his mates to make contested catches. Alshon Jeffery (11-135-1) and Brandon Marshall(7-90-2) came through for their quarterback, boxing out the Vikings defenders regularly.

"

It wasn't a perfect game for Cutler, as he did throw two interceptions, but it was a positive step. Now, he's got a matchup against a Tampa Bay defense that's allowed 20 touchdown passes and is tied for the fifth-most points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks. 

Colin Kaepernick and Joe Flacco are in similar situations. Neither one is coming off a banner game—Flacco had just 169 yards and one touchdown against Tennessee in Week 10; Kaepernick had 193 yards and one touchdown against New York—but their opponents are dreadful on defense. 

The 49ers play a Washington team that's allowed 20 touchdowns against three interceptions this year. The Ravens travel to New Orleans, where the Saints have given up 430 passing yards and four touchdowns in the last two weeks. 

Player	Team	Opponent	Price
Peyton Manning	DEN	vs. MIA	$9,900
Tom Brady	NE	vs. DET	$9,600
Russell Wilson	SEA	vs. AZ	$8,500

Is it blasphemy to put Peyton Manning and Tom Brady on a list of quarterbacks to avoid? If recent results are any indication, it's not the worst idea to put the future Hall of Famers on the backburner for at least one week. 

Manning is proving he's still human. The Broncos quarterback has thrown two interceptions in each of his last three games. There's also the chance Denver could be without Emmanuel Sanders and Julius Thomas this week, which isn't good news for the team's red-zone offense, per NFL on ESPN:

Eventually Manning will be Manning again, but give him one more week before going all-in again. 

Brady just doesn't have a good matchup against a physical Detroit defense in the cold New England weather and is coming off a lackluster effort against Indianapolis with 257 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. 

As far as Russell Wilson is concerned, the reason everyone has to talk about his rushing ability is because Seattle's passing game is virtually non-existent. Seattle's receivers are terrible. Wilson has been erratic throwing the ball, failing to break 200 yards since Week 7. 

Arizona's defense has given up a lot of yards in the passing game this year, but teams don't score on it and it's second in the league with 15 interceptions. 

Running Back

Player	Team	Opponent	Price
Eddie Lacy	GB	at MIN	$7,300
Justin Forsett	BAL	at NO	$6,500
Denard Robinson	JAX	at IND	$5,600
Lamar Miller	MIA	at DEN	$4,700
Isaiah Crowell	CLE	at ATL	$3,800

Since you need two running backs, the key here was to look for true value instead of simply saying that DeMarco Murray and Arian Foster are really good. 

Plus, if there is a position where you can afford to take a chance, it's running back. After all, how many people knew of Jonas Gray before the end of New England's game against Indianapolis?

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

The names on this list have had varying degrees of success in 2014, but all of them are poised to do big things in Week 12. Eddie Lacy has a matchup with Minnesota, which provided him with his best rushing game of the year (105 yards, two touchdowns). 

Things haven't gotten better for the Vikings in six weeks since Lacy torched them, as they are 21st in run defense and have allowed 10 total touchdowns. 

Justin Forsett is having the quietest great season of any running back in the league. Take a look at the leading rushers after Week 10 (before the Ravens had a bye), via NFL on ESPN:

For the record, Forsett only moved down three spots after Week 11 and is 12 yards behind Matt Forte for the fifth-most rushing yards. The 49ers and Bengals have run for 330 yards in the last two games against New Orleans, so expect a healthy rushing attack for the Ravens. 

Denard Robinson has emerged as a solid fantasy running back with 4.8 yards per carry and four touchdowns. He's also got a matchup against an Indianapolis defense that just made Gray a household name and allows the fourth-most points to opposing running backs. 

Lamar Miller could be phased out if Denver opens up a big lead on Miami, but the Broncos have struggled lately. Miami's offense is at its best when Miller touches the ball at least 15 times, posting a 4-2 record in those games. 

If the Dolphins are going to pull off the road upset, Miller has to be the leader of the offense. He opens up everything else for Ryan Tannehill. 

Cleveland made a change at running back, releasing Ben Tate on Tuesday, and opened the door for Isaiah Crowell to get more carries. He's still the No. 2 option behind Terrance West, but the Browns have been riding the hot hand all year. 

Crowell is in the driver's seat right now with a season-high 14 carries against Houston last week. He's also averaging a strong 4.6 yards per carry and has a team-leading five rushing touchdowns. His reward is a matchup with an Atlanta defense that's tied for the most rushing touchdowns allowed to opposing running backs (12). 

Player	Team	Opponent	Price
Marshawn Lynch	SEA	vs. AZ	$6,700
Arian Foster	HOU	vs. CIN	$8,600
Mark Ingram	NO	vs. BAL	$6,800

On the other side, three marquee running backs don't provide much value given their standing in the market. Arian Foster is a bad value based on history. He missed last week's game against Cleveland with a groin injury. 

Texans head coach Bill O'Brien was adamant that Foster wouldn't play again until he was completely healthy, via Igor Mello of CBSSports.com:

"

We'll do what's best for Arian Foster No. 1 and then what's best for our team No. 2. At the end of the day it's more about the health of the player than it is with anything else, especially with a guy like Arian Foster. You've got a guy there that's played a lot of football in this league. We'll just make sure we're in communication with him. We'll make a good decision for him and our team Sunday.

"

Without a definitive word on Foster's status for this week, it's hard to put faith in him having a big game, even with a favorable matchup against Cincinnati. 

Marshawn Lynch and Mark Ingram just have bad matchups, especially based on their listed price. Lynch has to go up against an Arizona defense that ranks third in run defense and has allowed the second-fewest points to opposing running backs. 

Ingram has to go up against the only run defense better than Arizona's in fantasy. The Ravens have allowed just three rushing touchdowns and 721 yards on the ground. The former Alabama running back had problems against Cincinnati last week, so a sudden turnaround against Baltimore doesn't seem likely. 

Wide Receiver

Player	Team	Opponent	Price
Mike Evans	TB	at CHI	$8,400
Josh Gordon	CLE	at ATL	$7,800
Sammy Watkins	BUF	vs. NYJ	$7,500
Steve Smith	BAL	at NO	$6,400

There are certain defenses you circle waiting for your player to face them in order to rack up a lot of cheap points. Chicago, Atlanta and New Orleans certainly fall under that category, especially for wide receivers. 

The Bears are the best of that bunch, as hard as it is to believe, allowing 21.4 points per game to opposing wideouts. However, they have also allowed 117 catches on 182 targets (64.3 percent) and 11 touchdowns. 

Mike Evans has the luxury of going up against Chicago's defense this week. The timing couldn't be better, as the rookie wideout had his best game as a pro with 209 yards and two touchdowns against Washington this past week. That prompted this response from head coach Lovie Smith, via ESPN's Adam Schefter:

Josh Gordon may have had to sit out 10 games due to a suspension, but what better return present than a matchup in the Georgia Dome against a Falcons defense that allows the most passing yards per game? Don't worry about rust with a matchup this good. 

Sammy Watkins torched the Jets for 157 yards on three catches four weeks ago. He should have had two touchdowns but for a premature celebration. 

Steve Smith has slowed down in recent weeks with 155 yards in the last four games, but Flacco is still targeting him during this stretch (29 times) and should find success against a New Orleans defense he knows well from his days in Carolina. 

Player	Team	Opponent	Price
Calvin Johnson	DET	at NE	$8,800
Jeremy Maclin	PHI	vs. TEN	$8,700
Roddy White	ATL	vs. CLE	$7,300

A problem for fantasy wide receivers is that they're so dependent on the quarterback to have success. Calvin Johnson should never be a bad option, but Matthew Stafford is so erratic that Megatron has been all over the map this season. 

Now, the Lions are going to New England for a matchup against a defense that's allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers. If that's not enough, Johnson will be shadowed by Darrelle Revis. 

Thomas B. Shea/Getty Images

Jeremy Maclin also suffers from playing with the erratic enigma that is Mark Sanchez. After one week of good vibes against a bad Carolina defense, Sanchez looked more like his usual self against Green Bay with four turnovers. 

Maclin was able to get garbage yards and a touchdown against Green Bay, but the Titans' weakness is against the run, as Le'Veon Bell showed on Monday night. Expect a healthy dose of LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles in this game, especially given how inconsistent Sanchez is. 

Roddy White no longer has the explosive playmaking skills that made him one of the best receivers in football, but the five touchdowns are encouraging. That doesn't mean his price tag is a good value, as he's ranked ahead of Reggie Wayne (vs. Jacksonville), Anquan Boldin (vs. Washington) and Torrey Smith (vs. New Orleans). 

Tight End

Player	Team	Opponent	Price
Coby Fleener	IND	vs. JAX	$5,200
Larry Donnell	NYG	vs. DAL	$3,900
Jacob Tamme	DEN	vs. MIA	$3,400

Even though Coby Fleener is listed among the top five tight ends for Week 12, he offers good value. Rob Gronkowski is head and shoulders above everyone else, so if you want to keep cap space and find a great matchup you can do worse than the Indianapolis tight end. 

Fleener and Andrew Luck have carried their chemistry from Stanford into the NFL, even though it took longer than anyone expected. Fleener is averaging 15.1 yards per reception, best among tight ends, and should be a bigger part of the game plan with Dwayne Allen battling an ankle injury. 

The Jaguars are catnip for opposing teams, especially the Colts. In their first matchup, Luck went 31-of-39 with 370 yards and four touchdowns. Fleener was the recipient of four of those completions and one touchdown. 

Larry Donnell may not have the most stable quarterback throwing him the ball, to put it mildly, but he does go against a Dallas defense that's allowing the fourth-most points to tight ends. 

Dan Salomone of Giants.com noted that Donnell is on pace for 70 receptions, 699 yards and 10 touchdowns, which would rank as the most touchdown catches and second-most receptions by a Giants tight end in history. 

Jacob Tamme is the gamble of the group, because Thomas' status for this week won't be known until the Broncos start practicing again. Even though he only finished last week's loss against St. Louis with four catches for 31 yards, Tamme was targeted 10 times by Manning. 

Player	Team	Opponent	Price
Jimmy Graham	NO	vs. BAL	$7,000
Antonio Gates	SD	vs. STL	$5,000

With Brandin Cooks out due to a broken thumb, opposing teams can gear up to stop Jimmy Graham. The Ravens are one of the best defenses in the league at shutting down opposing tight ends, allowing just two touchdowns through 10 games. 

Antonio Gates has been solid overall this season, but like the San Diego Chargers, he's also been very streaky. His nine touchdowns have come in five games. In the five games without a score, Gates has 16 receptions for 179 yards. 

The Chargers have a showdown with the suddenly resurgent St. Louis Rams, who just shut down Manning and the Broncos. Don't expect Gates to find the end zone this week. 

Defense

Defense	Opponent	Price
San Francisco 49ers	vs. WAS	$5,300
Seattle Seahawks	vs. AZ	$5,000
Cincinnati Bengals	at HOU	$4,900

The 49ers are one of the most expensive defenses on the board, but things are falling into place for this unit. They are coming off an impressive performance against the Giants, one that was admittedly helped by many mistakes by Eli Manning, but things are only going to get better with Aldon Smith getting his game legs back. 

Now, San Francisco gets to host a Washington team that continues to come apart at the seams. Robert Griffin III is failing at the simple fundamental aspects of quarterbacking, as noted by Andy Benoit of TheMMQB.com:

"

While you can argue that his first interception (against Tampa Bay) wasn’t his fault, the second one—the Johnthan Banks pick-six—was bad. It came on third-and-6, and Griffin never accounted for inside linebacker Mason Foster after he dropped out of a double A-gap look. Foster was spying Griffin (not an uncommon tactic in that situation), and he saw Griffin staring down a short slant. That’s not great for a quarterback to do, but it’s not the worst thing on a quicker timed pass, either.

"

Putting Griffin up against a defense with a fresh Smith, improving rookie pass-rusher in Aaron Lynch and a league-leading 16 interceptions is a recipe for guaranteed success. 

Position	Player	Opponent	Price
QB	Jay Cutler, CHI	vs. TB	$7,700
RB	Justin Forsett, BAL	at NO	$6,500
RB	Denard Robinson, JAX	at IND	$5,600
WR	Mike Evans, TB	at CHI	$7,800
WR	Steve Smith, BAL	at NO	$4,800
WR	Jordan Matthews, PHI	vs. TEN	$5,500
TE	Coby Fleener, IND	vs. JAX	$5,200
FLEX	Isaiah Crowell, CLE	at ATL	$3,800
D/ST	San Francisco 49ers	vs. WAS	$3,100

Position	Player	Opponent	Price
QB	Tony Romo, DAL	at NYG	$8.700
RB	Lamar Miller, MIA	at DEN	$7,100
RB	LeSean McCoy, PHI	vs. TEN	$7,700
WR	Reggie Wayne, IND	vs. JAX	$6,900
WR	Odell Beckham Jr., NYG	vs. DAL	$7,500
WR	Torrey Smith, BAL	at NO	$6,500
TE	Coby Fleener, IND	vs. JAX	$5,400
K	Mason Crosby, GB	at MIN	$4,900
D	Houston Texans	vs. CIN	$5,100

Seattle's defense has been erratic all year, but let's see how Drew Stanton fares against this secondary on the road. Eventually the air will come out of Stanton's balloon, or Bruce Arians really is the greatest quarterback coach in history. It seems like this will be the week when things change. 

Cincinnati has the luxury of going against a quarterback making just his second career start in Ryan Mallett. As impressive as the Texans' signal-caller looked against Cleveland, the Browns have been spotty on defense and their offense couldn't get anything going with Brian Hoyer completing just 20 of his 50 passes. 

The Bengals made a statement last week by going on the road and picking apart a New Orleans team that had its back against the wall following a heartbreaking loss to San Francisco. Marvin Lewis' bunch may not be consistent, but they know how to beat up on weaker opponents. 

Stats via ESPN.com

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