UFC Fight Night 57: B/R Staff Main Card Predictions
Missed the UFC last weekend? Don't worry—the company is back with yet another card this weekend! It should be a fun one, so if you have cable, you should tune in.
The card is headlined by Frankie Edgar and Cub Swanson in what is likely a title-eliminator fight. Supporting that main event are lightweights Edson Barboza and Bobby Green, who should put on a helluva scrap.
It's time to get the band back together. So, per usual, here are the staff's main card predictions from Craig Amos, James MacDonald, Sean Smith, Scott Harris and myself, Riley Kontek.
2014 Staff Records
1 of 7
Not much explaining is needed here. Craig Amos is clinging to the top spot while James MacDonald and myself nip at his heels.
Craig Amos: 133-72-1
Riley Kontek: 131-74-1
James MacDonald: 131-74-1
Sean Smith: 125-80-1
Scott Harris: 119-89-1
Matt Wiman vs. Isaac Vallie-Flagg
2 of 7
Kontek: It may not come to mind, but this bout has Fight of the Night potential. Both Vallie-Flagg and Wiman are known to get into brawls, even though they can also be technical. The lightweight division has been missing its wild card in Wiman, who in previous years had been a guy on the fringe of breaking out. Though I respect Vallie-Flagg's ability, Wiman has proved this is the type of fight he thrives in.
Wiman, Unanimous Decision
Amos: Wiman has been off for nearly two years and comes back from a TKO loss. Vallie-Flagg is also coming off of a loss—two, in fact—but he at least managed to give Takanori Gomi some trouble. He should be able to push the pace enough to make Wiman uncomfortable and eke out a decision win.
Vallie-Flagg, Unanimous Decision
MacDonald: Wiman showed a lot of promise a few years ago. He came out of nowhere, adopting a relentless style that wore his opponents down. After so much time away, it’ll be interesting to see where his overall MMA game is. Vallie-Flagg is a tough out, but Wiman is the more talented fighter. The result of this fight all depends on whether the old Wiman shows up.
Wiman, Unanimous Decision
Harris: Welcome back to the UFC, Matt Wiman! It's good that he's back after an extended hiatus, as he's a fun and aggressive competitor, but Vallie-Flagg will use cage rust to take an advantage. Expect a striking battle with marginal power and even more marginal defense. Wiman will make a mistake early in his return.
Vallie-Flagg, TKO, Rd. 1
Smith: Despite losing two in a row, Vallie-Flagg has been tasked with another tough bout against a UFC veteran in Wiman. It’s a good time to run into Wiman, who has been out of action nearly two years. That said, Wiman’s a solid wrestler, who should be able to shut Vallie-Flagg down on the ground like Elias Silverio did.
Wiman, Unanimous Decision
Joseph Benavidez vs. Dustin Ortiz
3 of 7
Kontek: Joseph Benavidez is a man caught in purgatory. I don't expect him to get a title shot soon, despite the fact that he is the second-best flyweight in the world. He is simply on another level than Ortiz, who has proved to be a really solid 125er. He will wear on Ortiz, showing him why he's elite at 125 and finish him midway through the fight.
Benavidez, Submission, Rd. 2
Amos: Ortiz has shown some good skills since joining the UFC flyweight division, but he's taking a big step up in competition for this fight. Benavidez is one of the very best around, having only ever lost to Dominick Cruz and Demetrious Johnson, probably the best two sub-featherweight mixed martial artists to ever have competed. The 25-year-old Ortiz will lose this match but should be better for it in the long run.
Benavidez, TKO, Rd. 2
MacDonald: I’m looking forward to this one. This is a tough test for Ortiz, but it’ll give us a chance to see exactly where his level is. Unfortunately for him, Benavidez is probably a step too far. It should be an entertaining fight, but look for Benavidez to end the fight late.
Benavidez, TKO, Rd. 3
Harris: Ortiz is a good fighter and very good athlete, but Benavidez is simply better. He'll use his strong overall ground game to control Ortiz and nab another win.
Benavidez, Submission, Rd. 2
Smith: With a 3-1 UFC record, Ortiz is quietly becoming a contender in the 125-pound division. He’ll get his toughest test to date opposite Benavidez, though. A former title challenger in the bantamweight and flyweight divisions, Benavidez might be one of the best fighters to never wear UFC gold. He’s fully capable of knocking Ortiz, who has gone to split decisions in his past three bouts, down a peg.
Benavidez, Unanimous Decision
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Jared Rosholt vs. Alexey Oleinik
4 of 7
Kontek: This is certainly an interesting matchup. It's American wrestler versus Russian submission grappler. Alexey Oleinik was ultra impressive in his UFC debut, but he is taking on a man I doubt he can get to the ground. Rosholt is good at grinding and tiring guys out, which is even easier when in the heavyweight division. Expect a clinch-heavy affair, with Rosholt getting the better of "The Boa Constrictor."
Rosholt, Unanimous Decision
Amos: Despite owning a laudable wrestling pedigree, Rosholt has been moving up the heavyweight ladder with a decidedly lackadaisical gait. Though 3-0 since joining the UFC, he is without a finish or a signature win. Oleinik poses a harsh submission threat, though he'll have to get Rosholt to the mat to make that matter. I'll say he somehow manages to do that and finishes the fight.
Oleinik, Submission, Rd. 2
MacDonald: Can’t say I’m looking forward to this one. Rosholt isn’t exactly must-see TV. However, he should have the edge everywhere except if the fight turns into a grappling contest on the floor. Oleinik poses a submission threat, but I have a feeling Rosholt will grind out yet another yawn-worthy win.
Rosholt, Unanimous Decision
Harris: You're going to get what you pay for on this one. Rosholt uses his heavy wrestling and clinch game to overwhelm his opponent. It won't be exciting, but it will be another win for the highly touted Rosholt.
Rosholt, Unanimous Decision
Smith: With a win over Soa Palelei improving his UFC record to 3-0, Rosholt looked ready for a shot at a heavyweight contender. Instead, he’ll meet Oleinik, who is coming off of a win in his UFC debut. Rosholt’s wrestling will be too much for the still-unproven Oleinik.
Rosholt, Unanimous Decision
Chico Camus vs. Brad Pickett
5 of 7
Kontek: I'll be honest: I have not been impressed with Brad Pickett at 125 pounds. He was more energetic and quick on the feet when he was competing at 135. Add in that Chico Camus is an underdog, and you could be setting the upset alarms. However, I am a coward and refuse to pick an upset here so late in the game. Pickett will outpoint Camus on the feet and avoid an extended ground war.
Pickett, Unanimous Decision
Amos: Without making the mistake of rating Pickett as the fringe contender he was a few years back, I still believe he'll win this fight. Camus posted mixed results at 135, but there is nothing on his resume that screams upset potential here. For what it's worth, though, the fight probably won't be a blowout.
Pickett, Unanimous Decision
MacDonald: Pickett’s biggest problem as a smaller fighter is that he lacks the necessary speed to compete with the elite at either 125 or 135 pounds. Fortunately, Camus isn’t elite. He’s very good, but he isn’t top-tier. This should be a close fight, but Pickett has enough in his toolkit to edge it.
Pickett, Unanimous Decision
Harris: Pickett was pretty well-dominated by Ian McCall in his last fight out. He'll get back on the good foot against Camus, who is mainly a kickboxer and should be vulnerable to Pickett's grappling.
Pickett, Unanimous Decision
Smith: Following two straight poor performances, although one loss was overturned, Camus is dropping down to 125 pounds only to meet an opponent formerly considered a contender in the bantamweight division. Pickett has gone 1-1 since moving to flyweight, but his loss came against Top Five contender Ian McCall. This is an unearned step up for Camus and will only result in disappointment for him.
Pickett, Submission, Rd. 2
Bobby Green vs. Edson Barboza
6 of 7
Kontek: I was always an advocate of Bobby Green, but even I am impressed with how far he has gone in the UFC. I thought he'd be a career midcarder, but he has broken through the threshold and done so in impressive fashion. However, given the leg kicks, takedown defense and superior striking of Edson Barboza, I have a hard time picking against the Brazilian. He will batter Green's legs and hand him his first UFC defeat.
Barboza, Unanimous Decision
Amos: This is the toughest pick on the card because Green is the all-around better fighter, but I don't like the way he matches up with Barboza. I'm not too confident either way, but I'll abide by the adage that styles make fights and go with the Brazilian.
Barboza, Unanimous Decision
MacDonald: If it wasn’t for Barboza’s unreliable chin, I’d take him to win no questions asked. However, I have serious doubts about his chin’s ability to absorb anything stronger than a light breeze. That being said, Green isn’t a huge puncher, so Barboza’s fragility shouldn’t be as much of an issue.
Barboza, Unanimous Decision
Harris: Green's talk of retirement earlier this week doesn't exactly buttress my instincts. But I'll stick with the gut and say Green employs better striking defense to keep Barboza's high-octane knockout bids from getting through.
Green, Unanimous Decision
Smith: While Green has been surging upward in the lightweight division, he’s had some assistance, including a controversial decision with Josh Thomson and a questionable stoppage against James Krause. Barboza’s striking gets most of the credit, but he’s also difficult to ground, having been taken down only once in his past five outings. Any 155-pounder forced to stand with Barboza is in deep trouble, and that’s what will happen to Green on Saturday.
Barboza, Unanimous Decision
Frankie Edgar vs. Cub Swanson
7 of 7
Kontek: Cub Swanson is so close to UFC gold he can taste it. Unfortunately, he is running into a former UFC champion who will send him back to the drawing board. Frankie Edgar's wrestling, in unison with his quickness and in-and-out style, will give Swanson fits. A mixed approach is the recipe that will take Swanson out of top-contender status and insert Edgar into those talks. It will be a close, fun fight though.
Edgar, Unanimous Decision
Amos: Swanson is on a tear right now, but Edgar still hasn't lost a non-title fight since 2008, one which he would go on to avenge. It should be fairly competitive, but I see Edgar's striking as the key for him, and I expect him to win a close but clear unanimous decision.
Edgar, Unanimous Decision
MacDonald: This is a tough one to call. I have my doubts that Edgar will ever wear UFC gold again, but he can certainly act as a bit of a spoiler here. His speed could frustrate Swanson and earn him a decision, but I’m going to take Swanson in an extremely competitive contest. His more diverse striking should give him the slight edge.
Swanson, Unanimous Decision
Harris: Edgar will have to be wary of Swanson's power, but that's a doable task. Edgar will dart in and out and use his balance to stop most (if not all) of any Swanson takedown shots. As Ricardo Lamas did to Dennis Bermudez last weekend, so here will a featherweight veteran stop a new title challenger from emerging.
Edgar, Unanimous Decision
Smith: He’s been rocked by Gray Maynard, so Edgar has to be careful against Swanson, a more talented striker. However, The Answer should be able to exploit Swanson’s defensive wrestling. He’s been on a roll, but Swanson hasn’t met a fighter with the wrestling Edgar has over his six straight victories and possibly in his entire career.
Edgar, Unanimous Decision
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