Buying or Selling Early 2014-15 NBA Season Trends
Twenty days down; so, so many to go.
We’re not even a month into the NBA season, and already the big board abounds with bonkers trends and head-scratching stats—haphazardly wrapped gifts from the small-sample-size gods.
Now comes the fun part: parsing what can be believed among the NBA’s early-season esoterica and dismissing what is nothing more than hardwood hocus pocus.
What follows, then, are 10 trends—five we’re buying, five we’re selling—from the first fortnight-and-a-half of the 2014-15 campaign.
Really, we could probably pick 100 things that fit the bill: Rajon Rondo’s three-point shooting, the Los Angeles Lakers’ train wreck of a defense, DeMarcus Cousins’ steady maturation into the living, breathing Buddha and so on.
But we respect your time. That, and we don't want smoke to start billowing out of the back of your computer.
Onward!
Buying: The Philadelphia 76ers Are Historically Bad
1 of 10Just how bad are things going for the 0-9 Philadelphia 76ers? During a recent game against the mighty Houston Rockets, with his team up three and a scant 35 seconds remaining in the game, Sixers head coach Brett Brown…well, you can click on that there video link above.
After Houston's James Harden seemingly knocked down Michael Carter-Williams on a fast break, Tony Wroten fouled Harden on the ensuing layup attempt. Brown didn't like the non-call on the Houston guard and gave the ball a kick.
Credit Brown for resurrecting Nick Nolte’s infamous foot fury from Blue Chips—a tremendous scene from a criminally underrated movie. As for Philly? Not much credit due on that front.
The Sixers are awful. So awful, in fact, that a run at the 2011-12 Charlotte Bobcats, who tallied seven total W's (seven!) and a win percentage of .106 (.106!) during the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season.
Once all the pieces are healed and in place, Philly has all the makings of an intrigue-laden up-and-comer. Until that day comes, however, this year’s Sixers will have to settle for avoiding an infamous place in the NBA record books.
Selling: The Sacramento Kings Are a Playoff Team
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Look, we’re just as happy as the next hoopster that the Sacramento Kings look like a legitimate professional basketball team.
DeMarcus Cousins? A legit franchise cornerstone who has yet to so much as scratch the surface of his interstellar potential. Rudy Gay? A wonderful second banana whose newfound efficiency should, under head coach Mike Malone’s stats-savvy tutelage, continue to blossom.
Take a gander up and down the rest of the roster, however, and it’s hard to believe these Kings—pluckily competitive though they’ve been at 6-4—really have what it takes to crash the Western Conference playoff party.
The good news: Between the team’s dynamic duo and its slew of young assets, it has enough in the way of strategic wiggle room to continue its upward ascent. It just might take a few years for the formula to really start brewing something special.
Buying: Anthony Davis' Plus-30 PER
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In the pantheon of completely predictable NBA narratives, Anthony Davis' arrival as a bona fide superstar is the equivalent of a ceiling-spanning fresco—totally unavoidable no matter where you’re standing.
We just didn’t think it would be cast in blinding DayGlo paint.
If they awarded the MVP at the one-eighth mark of the season, Davis would’ve won it running away. Or soaring like the basketball bird of prey that he is.
Through Sunday, The Unibrow was registering a staggering 35.5 player efficiency rating—a full seven points and change ahead of the second-place...Brandan Wright? Sure, OK.
Don’t expect Davis’ PER to stay quite so high as the season progresses. But we feel pretty safe in saying he has the best chance of anyone not named LeBron James to finish above the magical 30 threshold.
Speaking of James, here’s what he had to say about the New Orleans Pelicans super-stud to Fox Sports’ Jennifer Hale: "He is one of the game's elite players right now, for sure. You look at his numbers, points, blocks and steals. If he continues to stay healthy and grow like he's been doing, he can be a superstar in this league for sure."
Consider it assured.
Selling: Kobe Bryant's Shooting Below 40 Percent
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In a certain light, this Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid ending to Kobe Bryant’s incendiary career makes sense—the futile firing away of a basketball bandit besieged by outsized forces beyond his control. Or the Bolivian Army.
Bryant has quite literally been the only semi-reliable option for the woeful Los Angeles Lakers. Whether it’s been by dint of choice or circumstance is the tricky part.
Whatever your stance on the matter, it’s hard to look at Bryant’s production and not get a queasy feeling in your stomach. It’s that ugly. In fact, prior to Sunday’s showdown with the Golden State Warriors, the Lakers were an astounding 20.2 points per 100 possessions better with Kobe on the bench, per John Krolik of Cavstheblog.com.
Chew on that statistical straw for a second.
At the rate he’s going, it’s conceivable that Bryant—now 36 years old with title No. 6 all but a fleeting fantasy—finishes the season with a field-goal percentage below 40 for the first time in his career.
We're taking the over. Both because trust in teammates can take a while and because, let's face it, Bean is just too let that kind of bomb blemish his record.
Once his teammates start asserting themselves, Bryant's looks will get cleaner and more open. That, in 100 out of 100 Kobe Bryant universes, means an improved clip.
Buying: The Dallas Mavericks' Explosive Offense
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We all knew Chandler Parsons’ defection from the Houston Rockets to the Dallas Mavericks was bound to have an effect on both sides. But a 115.0 offensive rating for the Mavs and a 91.5 defensive rating for the Rockets? I don’t think so.
We’ll get to the Rockets’ hot start a bit later. As for Dallas, we’re all in on Rick Carlisle’s hyper-efficient attack—a scintillating system that takes advantage of the best the Mavs have to offer; specifically Dirk Nowitzki's singular, defense-scrambling presence, Monta Ellis' peerless penetrative ability and Parsons' jack-of-all-trades genius.
Dallas' ability to secure the rock has been key to its prowess, as evidenced by its third-ranked turnover rate of 10.7.
Well, that and the top-to-bottom depth. That helps.
Selling: The Houston Rockets' Ridiculous Defense
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Right, so about Houston’s bananas defense.
On Sunday, the Rockets held the Oklahoma City Thunder to 65 points. Here’s the thing, though: We’re pretty sure the Thunder started Kevin Hart.
Yes, the Rockets have the best defensive center on the planet in Dwight Howard. Yes, Patrick Beverley remains one of the league’s premier perimeter hounds. Yes, the addition of Trevor Ariza gives them a lockdown wing capable of guarding up to three positions.
No, the Rockets haven’t played a strong schedule. Like, at all. That alone makes us prone to believe a regression to the mean is all but inevitable.
Last season, the Rockets finished 12th in overall defensive efficiency at 103.1—solid but by no means extraordinary. But unless Houston coach Kevin McHale spent his summer attending some Tom Thibodeau defensive-coaching camp (presumably held deep within a dimly lit bear cave), we just don’t see this team maintaining its hold on the top defensive slot.
Top 10? Sure. Top five? Possibly.
The best defense in the league? Don’t count on it.
Buying: Gordon Hayward Is a Star for the Utah Jazz
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It’s a tried-and-true adage that rejection can help one grow. Or maybe it’s one I just now made up. Either way, it’s clear that being shunned from Team USA’s gold-medal-winning FIBA squad this past summer was maybe the best thing that ever happened to Gordon Hayward professionally.
The Utah Jazz swingman—fresh off inking a four-year, $62.97 million deal—has been straight-up sensational this season, exorcising in short order what was something of a disappointing 2013-14 campaign.
Hayward has thrived under coach Quin Snyder’s free-flowing offense, where he’s charting career highs nearly across the board. In doing so, Hayward is proving not only that he’s liable to be worth every penny of that $63 million, but that the Jazz have a legitimate franchise cornerstone on their hands.
Selling: Kyrie Irving Is a Problem for the Cleveland Cavaliers
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So we’ve all heard the anecdotal stats: that Kyrie Irving dribbled 4,000,000 times while taking 6,000 shots with no assists over two games, that the Cleveland Cavaliers were imploding, that LeBron James was going to retire to become a Trappist monk and blah blah blah.
Nonsense—all of it. Sure, Irving has struggled somewhat to find his niche alongside James and Kevin Love, which can happen when you’re suddenly teamed with a pair of players who are leaps and bounds better than anyone you’ve ever played with.
So what has Irving done since the infamous zero-assist performance against the Jazz on November 5? He's only averaged 22.8 points and 6.3 assists on a crisp 52.6 percent shooting (on a comparably paltry 14.3 shot attempts per game, no less) over four contests.
Irving is a problem for the Cavaliers in the same way that bees are a problem for your yard. They might be. Until they prove themselves as such, though, it’s best to let them make their sweet, sweet honey.
Anyway, here’s SB Nation’s Tom Ziller with some poignant perspective on why it was always way too early to hit the panic button on the Cavs:
"Blatt still has no idea what to do with his rotation. That will change. Blatt played only eight guys on Wednesday, which is loony for the second game of a back-to-back against a quick team like Utah. Matthew Dellavedova is out, and Blatt experimented with Shawn Marion in the starting lineup, which went horribly. Otherwise, he rode Kyrie, LeBron and Love.
Eventually Blatt will figure out which players he can trust and which units are most consistent. ... Give the coach two dozen games to sort it out. If he's still struggling to find a solid rotation after Christmas, then we should worry.
"
P-E-R-7-S-P-E-C-%-Q-T-I-V-E. Perspective.
Buying: The Toronto Raptors' Hot Start
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Fact: An .800 win percentage in the Eastern Conference ought to come with a planet-sized asterisk next to it.
Fact: The Toronto Raptors play in the Eastern Conference.
Fact: I clearly skipped my college logic class, because I believe the Toronto Raptors are legit.
Under general manager Masai Ujiri's steady hand, the Raptors have emerged as the East’s answer to the Oklahoma City Thunder—a team that’s used a combination of good drafting and crafty trades to forge a genuine homegrown juggernaut.
Not only are the Raptors registering the second-highest point differential in the league (9.6). Not only are they ranked in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, according to Hollinger's stats. Not only do they boast five players averaging double figures in points and five with player efficiency ratings of 19 or better.
Actually we should probably just stop there because that’s all pretty good.
Toronto’s home-heavy schedule may well be behind its scalding start. But not even a harder road slate will be enough to keep these rascally Raps from a top-three seed in the East.
Selling: The Memphis Grizzlies' Hot Start
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Along with the oft-mentioned Rockets, the Memphis Grizzlies currently own the NBA’s best record at 9-1.
And while both teams have a mean-regression or two in their futures, it’s the Grizzlies on whose stock we’re a bit bearish.
Rest assured, Memphis is all but a playoff shoo-in—the product of one of the league’s best defenses and an offense that’s garnered an unfair reputation over the years for being some kind of prehistoric disaster. It’s not, and under the watchful eye of the ascendant Dave Joerger, it won’t be this season, either.
That being said, Memphis always seems to fall victim to an injury-riddled stretch. It’s never enough to put the Grizzlies out of the playoff picture completely, but with a depth chart as thin as theirs, there’s only one place for a tweak or tear to send these burly bears: downward.
You can talk me into the Grizzlies as sneaky-legitimate conference contenders. As the end-to-end best team in the West? Not so much.
Advanced stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com, ESPN.com and ESPN's Hollinger stats unless otherwise noted.
