Wisconsin Badgers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Complete Game Preview
In the second of three consecutive trophy games, this clash of Big Ten West heavyweights features the Wisconsin Badgers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes. Both teams are right in the thick of the Big Ten West race with the Badgers holding the inside track.
With two games to go, the Badgers sit at 5-1 in Big Ten play, holding sole possession of first place in the West. Iowa sits just a game back, tied with Minnesota and Nebraska for second at 4-2. The Hawkeyes need a collection of things to break the right way for them to advance to Indianapolis and the Big Ten title game.
Iowa is 7-3 on the year, losing a heartbreaker to in-state foe Iowa State before dropping road games against Maryland and Minnesota. The Badgers meanwhile have won five in a row and are playing with a confidence on both sides of the ball that fans hoped they would see coming into the season.
Let's take a look at each team's keys to success and players to watch. We will also look at what the coaches and players have said and cap it all off with a prediction. Without further ado, let's start with the keys to success for the Badgers.
Wisconsin Keys to Success
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Run the Ball
Forget about passing—it's overrated anyway. Against Nebraska, the Badgers threw the ball 11 times, completing seven passes for 46 yards. They also ran the ball 53 times for 581 yards. With numbers like that, even when everyone in the stadium knows what the offense is going to do, it doesn't make sense to throw the ball.
Melvin Gordon is an absolute monster after setting an FBS record with 408 rushing yards in a game, and he did it despite not playing in the fourth quarter. Corey Clement was banged up with a stinger but returned to the game and should be ready for this week's matchup with Iowa.
Iowa will probably commit eight or nine men in the box, but that shouldn't faze the Badgers, as the terrific trio of Gordon, Clement and quarterback Tanner McEvoy are all capable of making people miss and are a load to bring down in the second level.
Pressure the Quarterback
Against Nebraska, the Badgers made quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr.'s night one to forget. He went 6-of-18 for 62 yards, a touchdown and an interception, including 1-of-10 for 12 yards in the first half. While that one first-half completion was a touchdown, Armstrong looked horrible.
While the weather was a contributing factor, the Chevy Bad Boys certainly didn't help. For the uninitiated, the Chevy Bad Boys are the Badgers linebacking corps, comprised of Vince Biegel, Derek Landisch, Marcus Trotter and Joe Schobert. They have been unstoppable of late.
The four of them combined for 38 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks. The Badgers got help pressuring the quarterback from everywhere, getting sacks from safeties Peniel Jean and Austin Hudson, as well as help from nose guard Arthur Goldberg, who had a half-sack.
When all was said and done, the Badgers ended with four sacks to bring the season total to 32. Three or more sacks will be a great sign for the Badgers, who have 19 during their five-game winning streak. Iowa's offensive line is very good, but Dave Aranda's defense has been remarkable of late.
Iowa Keys to Success
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Find Balance on Offense
This task is easier said than done against the Badgers talented defense, which allows just 244 total yards per game. That figure is not only tops in the FBS but also leads by 18 yards per game. To put this in even greater context, sixth-ranked defense Alabama gives up 291 yards per game, 47 more yards than the Badgers.
To make matters even worse for the Hawkeyes, the Badgers are in the top five in both run and pass defense, ranking fifth and third, respectively. With the Wisconsin defense having no glaring weaknesses, a balanced attack like Iowa has will need exceptional performances out of the running and passing game to attempt to break down the defense.
In their 30-14 win at Illinois this past weekend, the Hawkeyes threw for 283 yards and ran for 306 more. While they won't come anywhere close to those figures against the Badgers, it will be important for them to establish a running game, no matter how tough the sledding is.
While quarterback Jake Rudock is a valuable weapon in the passing game, by the time the fourth quarter rolls around and the sun goes down, it will be difficult for him to stretch the field with the passing game. If the Hawkeyes can break the 300-yard barrier with both the running and passing games breaking 100 yards, they'll be in pretty good shape.
Sell Out Against the Run
Ten other teams have tried this strategy, and the only one that succeeded was Western Illinois. While I could try and make an excuse that Gordon was still recovering from the hip flexor he suffered against LSU, the 167 total rushing yards by the team is a figure passed by Gordon alone six times this season.
Joel Stave threw for 46 yards against Nebraska. While it's not like he needed to do much more, and a couple of his throws early on—particularly a third-down conversion in the second quarter that set up Gordon's 62-yard touchdown run—looked very good, the Badgers can't win if the game is entirely on his shoulders.
If the Hawkeyes put eight, nine or 10 guys in the box and dare Stave to beat them, that is probably their best chance for victory. Even if Stave completes pass after pass, the Hawkeyes need to remember to sell out against the run, as that is the only way they can beat the Badgers.
Wisconsin Players to Watch
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Melvin Gordon, Running Back
How do you follow up an FBS record for rushing yards in a game? Getting to 2,000 yards in a season and continuing to work toward the Big Ten Championship Game while cementing yourself as a Heisman finalist should be all the incentive Melvin Gordon needs to have another big day.
Last season against Iowa, Gordon had a pretty mediocre day, carrying the ball 17 times for 62 yards (3.6 yards per carry) and not finding the end zone. Gordon, a former Iowa commit, expressed reservations about his return to Kinnick Stadium, where he meets a more hostile than usual crowd.
"I had such a hard time with Iowa, I’m telling you," Gordon said, per Daniel Zillmer of BadgerofHonor.com. "Their fans, they really got to me. I was just so upset. I was just so mad that the Iowa fans got in my head that game."
Look for Gordon to come out with a vengeance. He currently sits at 1,909 yards, and I expect him to get into the 21st century by halftime. Iowa's rush defense isn't nearly stingy enough to keep a back as talented as Gordon down, so I predict at least 150 rushing yards and two touchdowns for the Heisman candidate.
Peniel Jean, Safety
On a day of big defensive performances against Nebraska, one player stood out: Peniel Jean. Filling almost every piece of the stat sheet with two tackles, one tackle for loss, a sack, an interception and a fumble recovery, Jean was sensational.
The redshirt senior carved his way into the starting lineup as the free safety in a number of games and has made the most of those opportunities. He leads the team with two interceptions, and his 30 tackles are sixth on the team, behind fellow safety Michael Caputo and the aforementioned Chevy Bad Boys.
Jean will need to continue his run of strong form as the Badgers hit the home stretch of their schedule. If he can continue to make plays and help in coverage while the front seven gets after the quarterback, the Badgers will extend their winning streak.
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Iowa Players to Watch
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Mark Weisman, Running Back
In 2012, Weisman ran for 100 or more yards in four straight weeks. In 2013, he ran for 100 or more yards in four out of five weeks. Last week against Illinois, Weisman ran for over 100 yards for the first time all season.
Is this the start of a trend, or was it just a case of playing a bad team?
Weisman has 676 yards on the season and 2,466 yards for his career. He is a talented running back with a low center of gravity who almost always falls forward. In Iowa's three losses, he has 148 rushing yards on 40 carries.
Weisman is going to need a big day, as the Badgers have only allowed two 100-yard rushers all season: Kenny Hilliard of LSU and Justin Jackson of Northwestern. The Badgers also lost those two games, and only those two. If Weisman breaks the 100-yard mark, the Hawkeyes will be in good shape to win the game.
Drew Ott, Defensive End
The Iowa Hawkeyes have 24 sacks on the season. Eight of them have come from defensive end Drew Ott. He is a one-man wrecking crew, nearly on par with the likes of Joey Bosa or any of the other Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year candidates.
Ott has also chipped in 48 tackles this season, 11.5 of which have come behind the line of scrimmage. He will be needed to contain Gordon to not let him break outside the tackles while also pressuring Joel Stave and Tanner McEvoy. In addition, Ott will be important in containing the zone-read plays that the Badgers have implemented.
While Ott can make plays without getting a sack, if he is able to get to Stave, that will be a good sign for the Hawkeyes. He also needs to contain on the edge and take up multiple blockers to give the linebackers a better chance of bringing down Gordon.
What They're Saying
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Wisconsin
After the team's convincing 59-24 victory on Saturday over a ranked-Nebraska team, head coach Gary Andersen was effusive in his praise of running back Melvin Gordon after his record-setting day in the team's postgame press conference:
"I thought this guy [Melvin Gordon], the best of the best. Unbelievable. And I know the first thing he's going to tell you is about his teammates. So I'm going to tell you how special a young man he is. I've said it all year long: Ever since I got a chance to meet him, almost two years ago now, I knew it.
But you just keep he's a special kid, off the field, on the field. He's absolutely unbelievable. Like I say, I think the best of the best. But this football team was great today.
"
When Gordon was asked about his performance, he took the team-first approach that coaches and fans love to see from the star player.
"This game meant a lot," Gordon said. "Forget about the statistics. I knew if we lost this game, it would be tough for us to get in the Big Ten championship. It was pretty much the end of the road for us. These last few games are very important."
Iowa
After the team's 30-14 victory over Illinois, head coach Kirk Ferentz was pleased with how his team played, telling reporters it was a return to form. He was also particularly pleased with the number of players involved in the passing game.
"It was good that we looked more like an Iowa football team today," said Ferentz. "That means our defense has to be playing well, we run the ball with success, and get the balls to the tight ends and everyone else."
On Sunday, Ferentz told Darren Miller of HawkeyeSports.com elaborated on his team's resolve to win and the commitment over the course of the week:
"You are never quite sure how the team is going to get back up on their feet—or if they are going to—and how they are going to respond during the course of the week. I was pleased when the guys showed up for practice and meetings Tuesday, they had a great attitude. They moved around well all week, and more importantly, played with good enthusiasm yesterday. Any time you go on the road to win a Big Ten football game is no easy task. We came out with a victory so we're happy about that.
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Prediction
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The Badgers are riding a wave of momentum the likes of which hasn't been seen since Russell Wilson's magical season. Reeling off five straight victories after dropping their first Big Ten contest of the year, they can clinch a share of the Big Ten West crown with a victory against Iowa.
Giving the Badgers even more incentive to win, if the Gophers lose this week to Nebraska at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, the Badgers would just need one win in their last two games to ensure a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game to play the winner of the East division, who will almost certainly be Ohio State.
The Hawkeyes are one of the most difficult teams to figure out on a week-to-week basis, alternating between looking like world-beaters as they did in their 48-7 dismantling of Northwestern or like a bottom-barrel Big Ten team as they did in their 51-14 loss to Minnesota.
Iowa's run defense isn't nearly good enough to stop the Badgers rushing attack. Expect Melvin Gordon to break the 100-yard mark by halftime, which would in turn bring him over 2,000 yards on the season.
I don't think the game on the whole will be put away by halftime, as the Badgers are notoriously slow starters.
Look for Stave to throw for less than 150 yards yet again, but the Badgers should still cruise to victory behind their stingy defense and incredible rushing attack.
Wisconsin 31, Iowa 10
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