Ideal Trade Scenarios for Atlanta Braves to Focus on Pulling off This Winter

The Atlanta Braves have still not publicly stated whether or not they plan to hold a fire sale this offseason and trade away star players in order to rebuild for the opening of their new stadium in 2017. Comments last week from president of baseball operations John Hart indicate that this decision will hinge on one thing: Starting pitching. Hart told Braves.com beat writer Mark Bowman:

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We obviously have all options open. I think a lot of it is going to be dictated by what we are able to do in the starting pitching market. I think that is going to fully engage us in what we might do in 2015, if we want to come back with a somewhat intact ballclub. Obviously, if we can't do that, there are other options that we'll certainly examine.

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With that statement in mind, let’s take a look at some ideal trade scenarios from two different angles. The first angle will attempt to see how the team can trade for two starting pitchers this winter and still remain competitive for the 2015 season. The second angle will dissect several trades the team can make with an eye toward rebuilding for 2017 and beyond.

All-In for 2015

The Braves have several really good trade chips in their organization, with most of them located on the team’s 25-man roster. In a previous article I discussed some of the trade chips that the Braves have, with the three biggest, and most obvious ones, being catcher Evan Gattis and outfielders Jason Heyward and Justin Upton.

In order to acquire a starting pitcher who can match up to the other quality starters in the NL East, Atlanta will have to trade one of those three.

The rumors this offseason have been focused primarily on Gattis. Joel Sherman, a baseball columnist for the New York Post, reported that Gattis has drawn interest from American League clubs looking for a cost-controlled hitter who can DH and occasionally catch. That rumor was quickly shot down by John Hart, but not before it was independently confirmed by Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal and several other writers.

With Gattis, the Braves can offer an acquiring team a power hitter who makes the major league minimum. That combination of offense plus cost-saving is rare enough that the return should be a mid-rotation starter with a few years of experience.

For the Braves’ part, they have a ready replacement at catcher in prospect Christian Bethancourt. Signing a free-agent backup catcher to share time with Bethancourt would be far cheaper than spending money in the free-agent market for a starting pitcher.

That gets the Braves halfway to their goal of needing two starting pitchers to be competitive next year. The team will need to make one more trade in order to round out their five-man staff. Rosenthal tweeted this rumor about filling that final spot:

If the Braves can pull off those trades—Gattis for a starter and a reliever for a starter—then they will have filled the two biggest holes on their team and dealt from areas of depth. Sunday’s acquisition of reliever Arodys Vizcaino from the Chicago Cubs makes it more likely that another reliever in the bullpen will be swapped for a starter.

In recent years, Atlanta has been adept at piecing together bullpens from the scraps of other teams and the unknown arms of their minor league system. From waiver-claim relievers Eric O’Flaherty, Anthony Varvaro and David Carpenter to unknown minor leaguers like Jonny Venters, Luis Avilan and Chasen Shreve, building a bullpen should not be an issue even if a top setup man is dealt this winter.

Rebuild for 2017

The other option on the table is to tear down this team and trade away some key players in order to rebuild the minor league system with star players who will be ready by 2017.

The Braves have not undergone a rebuilding year since the beginning of their long streak of playoff appearances in 1991. They probably should have done it at some point from 2006 to 2009, but they instead tried to put competitive teams on the field every year.

A rebuilding year or two could be a public-relations disaster for a team and city unaccustomed to such things, alienating many fans who are already soured by the team’s flight to the Atlanta suburbs.

Denis Poroy/Getty Images

It could also be argued that spending big money next year on another losing team like the one that crumbled in 2014 might be an even bigger public-relations disaster.

The ideal rebuilding trade scenarios with Gattis, Heyward and Justin Upton would have Atlanta getting a player or players who would be making their major league debuts at some point in the next two seasons. These players would be prospects considered to be among the top 100 in baseball and among the top-two or three on their former team.

With each of those trade chips it can be argued that a return of two top prospects is a fair trade. Atlanta would probably seek a mix of starting pitching prospects and offensive prospects.

Couple those prospects with what is expected to be a strong draft class next year—with the Braves owning the No. 15 overall pick and a supplemental first-round pick gained by the qualifying offer to Ervin Santana—and they could also be ready by 2017.

This rebuilding scenario would set the team up to have a half-dozen or more impact prospects added to their system in the next year.

Which Direction is Best?

Atlanta Journal-Constitution writer David O’Brien thinks the team is leaning toward rebuilding:

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It sounds as if the Braves will make moves aimed toward competing for titles in 2017 rather than the next two seasons, although president of baseball operations John Hart said a final decision on that strategy still hasn’t been made.

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The problem with trying to make a few key trades to compete next year is that two of the team’s biggest offensive players—Jason Heyward and Justin Upton—will be free agents after 2015. The Braves likely don’t have the money to re-sign both, and possibly not enough to sign either one.

While they would most likely get a compensatory draft pick for each player in the 2016 draft, trading them now could get two players who are first-round caliber and are closer to the majors. This would allow the Braves to field a more complete team in 2017.

So while they have to fill two starting pitching vacancies this offseason, they would need to fill two outfield vacancies next offseason. Meaning the cycle of plugging major gaps would have to continue, possibly further draining their farm system.

The Braves could also decide on a combination of these two strategies. They could use Gattis and a reliever to get immediate starting pitching help, and they could trade away Heyward and Upton for young building blocks.

It will be exciting to see which direction the Braves will take in the coming months. Either scenario will likely involve a fair amount of trades, which are always an exciting part of the baseball offseason.