2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship Odds: Handicapping the Top Drivers
The 2014 Sprint Cup season is over, and Kevin Harvick has emerged as the champion—a first-time champion at that.
So now what?
Start thinking about 2015, of course!
A number of drivers had off years in 2014, while others had surprisingly strong campaigns, including the final four championship finalists.
But that's now seemingly ancient history.
From here on out, sure, we can look back upon a great season, especially in the first year of the new elimination-style Chase for the Sprint Cup format.
But NASCAR is always a sport where you look ahead to what's next, and that's 2015, including a few drivers who will have new homes next season such as Carl Edwards, Sam Hornish Jr. and Trevor Bayne.
Let's take a look at how things stack up for 2015 and see if you agree:
No Shots—500:1 Odds
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You have to give these drivers credit: They try to do a lot with very little and have a fighting spirit that other drivers, especially those who have achieved success in their careers, may have forgotten about.
If they can break into the top 25 in 2015, it’ll be a good season for these drivers:
Landon Cassill
Josh Wise
Alex Bowman
Cole Whitt
Michael Annett
Reed Sorenson
Long Shots—250:1 Odds
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We see these drivers as longshots for 2015, pretty much ending up in the same way they did in 2014. But there should be some improvement from at least a few of these drivers, particularly Danica Patrick and Trevor Bayne, who will be in his first full season in Sprint Cup.
David Ragan
David Gilliland
Justin Allgaier
Danica Patrick
Trevor Bayne
Dark Horses—100:1 Odds
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These are the drivers we see has having some modicum of potential success in 2015, but almost everything has to go right and in their favor. Some had pretty bad years in 2014; the only place for them to go is up in 2015—hopefully.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: After a terrible sophomore Sprint Cup season, will Stenhouse be able to bounce back in 2015? He could be in a real battle to see who finishes higher: him or girlfriend Danica Patrick.
Casey Mears: Mears had a few bright spots in 2014, but he needs a lot more in 2015. Being on a single-car team hurts him.
Martin Truex Jr.: Truex’s move to Furniture Row Racing in 2014 was supposed to be a new start, but instead it was one of the worst seasons of his career. He needs a big bounceback in 2015.
Austin Dillon: Sure, he won the pole for the 2014 Daytona 500, but Dillon’s rookie season was far overshadowed by Kyle Larson. Will Dillon be better in 2015, or will he be the latest victim of NASCAR’s sophomore jinx?
Clint Bowyer: Bowyer missed the Chase at the last minute in 2014 and just didn’t race the whole season like the Clint of old. Will he be able to bounce back in 2015, or will it be another season of mediocrity?
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Sleepers—50:1 Odds
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These are the guys who are straddling the line between being sleepers and potential successes. If things go right for them, they could make the 2015 Chase.
Tony Stewart: Normally, we'd put Stewart as a definite contender. But after two forgettable seasons, one due to injury and the other due to the Kevin Ward Jr. tragedy, can Smoke return to his old form in 2015? He failed to win a race for the first time in his Sprint Cup career in 2014. He could kill two birds with one stone by starting 2015 with a win in the Daytona 500, which he has yet to win in his career.
Sam Hornish Jr.: Back in Sprint Cup full time as the replacement for Marcos Ambrose, Hornish has a lot to prove at Richard Petty Motorsports. If things go right, he could be one of the biggest surprises of the season.
Brian Vickers: Vickers had some bright spots in 2014, but just not enough. Look for him to have a significantly stronger season in 2015.
Paul Menard: We keep waiting for Menard to become a big success. The question is, will he ever do so, or is he at the highest level he’ll ever be success- and performance-wise?
Jamie McMurray: We think this is going to be a breakout year for McMurray, along with teammate Kyle Larson. It’s almost a certainty that McMurray makes the Chase—and then takes it from there.
Kyle Larson: Larson won’t have the sophomore jinx that other drivers have experienced. We can easily see him winning two, maybe three races and making the Chase with teammate Jamie McMurray.
Aric Almirola: After having a taste of success in making the Chase in 2014, Almirola takes further steps forward in 2015 and becomes a significant force.
Kasey Kahne: Kahne will be in the final year of his contract with Hendrick Motorsports in 2015. He HAS to have the season of his life. Otherwise, Chase Elliott is waiting in the wings for Kahne’s ride in 2016.
AJ Allmendinger: While being with a one-car team makes things harder, The Dinger could have a breakout campaign in 2015. If his team improves its equipment, AJ should make the Chase for a second straight season.
Greg Biffle: With his elevation to No. 1 driver at Roush-Fenway Racing by default, 2015 could be a make-or-break season for Biffle. Will he be up to the task to help bring about a resurgence at RFR?
Ryan Newman: Newman HAS to be better during the regular season than he was in 2014. He got to the final round of the Chase only because of his consistency. He has to have greater overall success in 2015, period.
Denny Hamlin: Had a good but not extraordinary season in 2014. He gave it a good try in Sunday's finale but once again came up short. Hamlin has to win more races in 2015 and be less lackadaisical at times (that’s the appearance he gives). It could be interesting if crew chief Darian Grubb is switched to another team within Joe Gibbs Racing, and how Hamlin reacts to the new pit-box signal-caller.
Kurt Busch
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2014 in Review: The self-professed Outlaw, Kurt Busch came up a few bullets short in 2014. Other than his win at Martinsville in the spring, Busch had an extremely lackluster regular season. Sure, he made the Chase, but he just didn’t have the performance or the team to warrant being a championship driver or team.
What's New for 2015: The team needs to step things up significantly in 2015. But with so much focus on new champ Kevin Harvick and Stewart, and to a lesser extent Danica Patrick, will Busch be somewhat lost in the shuffle in 2015? The way we see it, Busch has to pick up his game a few more steps to be a championship contender. Otherwise, 2015 could be a very disappointing season for The Outlaw.
Why He Can Win in 2015: Busch has incredible talent. But he keeps shooting himself in the foot season after season. If he could go back to his demeanor of 2004, when he won his first and only championship, it could not only be eye-opening but also a refreshing change for Busch and his fans.
Odds: 20:1
Carl Edwards
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2014 in Review: Carl Edwards fell short of his goal to win his first Sprint Cup championship in his final season for Roush Fenway Racing. He had a great crew chief in veteran Jimmy Fennig, but unfortunately, Edwards’ struggles in the Elimination Round proved his undoing, particularly a poor run at Phoenix.
What's New for 2015: What ISN’T new for Edwards in 2015? New team and new organization (Joe Gibbs Racing), new manufacturer (Toyota), new sponsors, new team members, crew chief and pit crew.
One thing that has not been said much of is how he adapts to his new teammates. While he likely won’t have any problems being reunited with former teammate Matt Kenseth, how Edwards and especially Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin work together—or don’t—could go a long way toward how all drivers perform next season.
Why He Can Win in 2015: There’s going to be a period of adjustment and everyone getting to know each other, but Edwards has the ability to adapt quite quickly. It may be rough going in the early races, but Edwards has the potential to still win two or three races.
Odds: 16:1
Kyle Busch
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2014 in Review: Good regular season, but once again, Kyle Busch fell short in the Chase. And it’s not just the new elimination format to blame. If Busch could only drive in the Cup series with the hunger and relative ease that he does in the Nationwide and Truck Series, he’d be a champion by now. But how can he fix that?
What's New for 2015: Status quo for Busch, although Joe Gibbs Racing officials have hinted there may be some changes with crew chiefs for several drivers.
Busch has had a decent relationship with current crew cheif Dave Rogers, but perhaps the duo has gone as far together as they can, and perhaps a change would do them both good. Who knows, maybe a change would ultimately be the thing that finally puts Busch over the top to become a champion, rather than a perennial also-ran.
Why He Can Win in 2015: Busch has everything he needs to be a champion. Good team and organization, good equipment and good crew chief. But maybe that’s just not good enough. If Busch doesn’t win in 2015, it could go a long way toward determining his future to either staying with JGR, moving to another team or even going out on his own in the Cup series.
Odds: 15:1
Matt Kenseth
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2014 in Review: The fact Kenseth failed to win a race after winning a season-high seven in 2013 is more than just an anamoly. Kenseth should have won at least two or three in 2014, but he kept coming up short. Is he getting too old? Did things at JGR go from good to bad behind the scenes in 2014? Whatever the case, Matt did not race—nor win—like the Kenseth we’re used to seeing out there.
What's New for 2015: Rumors of possible crew-chief changes at Joe Gibbs Racing, per Bob Pockrass of Sporting News, have fans wondering what may or may not happen. The way I see it, I think Kenseth will keep Jason Ratcliffe as his crew chief, but that’s not likely to be the case with the teams of Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch, if indeed changes are made.
Why He Can Win in 2015: Kenseth is a former champion and is almost always a threat to win, no matter where or when. We stick to our original story that this was just an off year for Kenseth and that he’ll roar back like the Matt of old in 2015.
Odds: 14:1
Joey Logano
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2014 in Review: Without question, a breakout season for Logano.
He came so close to winning the championship and started to transition his demeanor from a happy-go-lucky guy to more of a fierce competitor, which was one of the things that had helped him in his career up to 2014. He has nothing to be ashamed of coming up short in the championship race. After all, there’s at least 39 other guys who likely would have loved to have been in his place.
What's New for 2015: Don’t mess with success. Logano and crew chief Todd Gordon have become an excellent one-two punch. There’s no need to change anything for 2015. When you mess with success is when things start to go wrong.
Why He Can Win in 2015: While the pressure will be on Logano in some fans’ eyes to prove that 2014 was not a fluke year, we don’t look at it that way. If anything, 2014 was a coming-of-age period for the Connecticut native; 2015 will be a further building block—perhaps all the way to the championship that he came so close to this season.
Odds: 13:1
Brad Keselowski
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2014 in Review: It’s bad enough that he has plenty of enemies on the race track, but even worse, Keselowski proved to be his own enemy in 2014.
That’s why he fell short of making it to the championship round. If he would stop criticizing other drivers, take responsibility for his own mistakes and realize that NASCAR is not a demolition derby, he may well have a chance at a second Cup championship. But for now, he has been and will continue to be a one-hit wonder (in terms of championships), at least into 2015.
What's New for 2015: Nothing new on the Keselowski front for 2015. But if things do start to slip, much like they did in 2013 after he won the championship the year before, don’t be surprised if Gordon and crew chief Paul Wolfe go their separate ways. Gordon can only cover for Keselowski’s own failings for so long.
Why He Can Win in 2015: There’s no question Keselowski has immense talent. But talent is not just about how you wheel a race car. It’s also about how you carry yourself and not trying to blame everyone else when you make a mistake. Keselowski has the team, the equipment and everything else to win in 2015. He just needs an attitude adjustment.
Odds: 11:1
Jimmie Johnson
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2014 in Review: This was definitely not a true Jimmie Johnson season. Sure, he won three races, but he just didn’t seem to be the JJ who won six championships in the past. There were too many mechanical issues and just not enough bravado and confidence as in years past. He needs to get both of those issues back on track in 2015.
What's New for 2015: One has to wonder if perhaps this could be the final season for Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus. If the duo has another year like 2014, it will be fairly clear their relationship has become stagnant, and it would not be a total surprise to see Knaus move on, maybe even retire.
Why He Can Win in 2015: Because he’s Jimmie Johnson. It’s that plain and simple. We saw JJ rally back from not winning championships in 2011 and 2012 to do so again in 2013. He is certainly one of the championship threats going into 2015.
Odds: 10:1
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
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2014 in Review: Dale Earnhardt Jr. had a great season, arguably the best in a decade, with four wins, making the Chase and had it not been for a poor Contender Round, he may very well have advanced to the Eliminator Round. It also was the best—and last—season with crew chief Steve Letarte, who will be moving on to an analyst role with NBC Sports next season.
What's New for 2015: After four seasons with Letarte, arguably the best relationship he’s had with a crew chief in his career, Earnhardt will be paired with Greg Ives in 2015. Ives appears to be cut from the same mold as Letarte, albeit maybe a little bit quieter. Can Ives and Junior develop the same tight relationship that Earnhardt and Letarte had? The answer right now: TBD.
Why He Can Win in 2015: No question, Earnhardt proved with four wins in 2014 that he can win multiple races in a season—especially after having no wins for so many seasons beforehand. If he and Ives jell from the start, there’s no reason why Junior can’t win another three or four—or maybe even more—races in 2015.
Odds: 8:1
Kevin Harvick
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2014 in Review: The new Sprint Cup champion did everything he could behind the wheel, but admittedly he had numerous issues on pit road. That led to a switch with Stewart’s crew to start the Chase.
Will the two crews go back to their original teams in 2015, or will Harvick keep the crew that essentially won the championship for him? Unquestionably now, especially in light of Sunday's triumph, the move to Stewart-Haas Racing was right for Harvick. We see nothing but even more success for him there in 2015.
What's New for 2015: The key question here is does the crew Harvick had in the Chase (Stewart’s crew) come back to the No. 4 team, or does it go back to Smoke’s team? If the latter, crew chief Rodney Childers will have to make some changes on the pit crew to make it stronger and more consistent and especially less mistake-prone.
Then again, now that Harvick is the Sprint Cup champ, the best of the best crew members in the business would like nothing more than to come work for him, Childers and SHR. That's an exceptional position to be in, when people are calling you for jobs, not the other way around. This way, Harvick and Childers can pick from the best there is.
Why He Can Win in 2015: With what he did in 2014, we think Harvick hasn’t even hit his stride yet. He could be an even more dangerous threat to win a second consecutive championship in 2015.
Odds: 6:1
Jeff Gordon
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2014 in Review: Gordon was definitely on track to have a championship season, but that was torpedoed by Brad Keselowski at Texas. It’s a real shame because Jeff Gordon did everything right this season. If it wasn’t for Keselowski’s lethal right front fender, we may have been talking about Gordon as the 2014 Sprint Cup champ.
What's New for 2015: No major changes for the 24 team. But how will Gordon’s motivation be? Will he be even more determined in 2015, or will his failure to make the 2014 championship round—by one point, no less—do serious damage to his confidence next season?
Why He Can Win in 2015: If he can come back with the same motivation and determination that he came into 2014 with, Gordon has a good chance of finally earning that elusive fifth Sprint Cup championship. If he falls short, don’t be surprised if 2015 is his final season, especially with Chase Elliott waiting in the wings.
Odds: 3:1
Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski
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