NFL Predictions: Week 12 Awards Watch
Everything you knew about the NFL was wrong.
Well, it seemed that way after a topsy-turvy Week 11, one that included a seven-point effort from the powerful Denver Broncos offense and a Tampa Bay Buccaneers road win that pulled them to within two games of the division lead at 2-8.
How did this bizarre weekend impact the NFL awards odds? It certainly did more than move the needle for several of them—based on where they started a week ago—at any rate.
It’s still early, hence the fluidity we will see in some of these awards predictions. We have new favorites for MVP and Offensive Rookie of the Year, for example.
Click through to find out who.
Most Valuable Player
1 of 9
In the Running
| Rank | Player | Pos. | Team | Last Week |
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | Packers | 3 |
| 2 | Tom Brady | QB | Patriots | 4 |
| 3 | Andrew Luck | QB | Colts | 1 |
| 4 | Peyton Manning | QB | Broncos | 2 |
| 5 | DeMarco Murray | RB | Cowboys | N/A |
Winner: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
Talk about coming on strong. Aaron Rodgers has gotten hot just as some of the top contenders for the MVP crown have cooled. Sometimes timing is everything.
Of course, there are still too many weeks left to call this race. But the Packers are tied for the NFC North lead yet again on the strength of Rodgers' stupendous play, and he has thrust himself to the forefront of the MVP race.
Rodgers has thrown 28 touchdowns to just three interceptions, continuing an incredibly efficient season reminiscent of his 2011 MVP campaign. He is in the midst of another historic season, as Footballguys writer Chase Stuart recently pointed out in The New York Times:
"Rodgers leads the N.F.L. this season in nearly every major category: touchdown rate (8.9 percent), interception rate (1.0 percent), net yards per attempt (7.84), passer rating (120.1) and even ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating (85.9). Since 1970, only three quarterbacks have led the league in both touchdown rate and interception rate: Ken Anderson (Cincinnati Bengals, 1981), Steve Young (San Francisco 49ers, 1992) and Brady (New England Patriots, 2010).
"
He will have to hold off Tom Brady, who has been aflame himself ever since the Week 4 debacle in Kansas City. The New England quarterback has 1,858 yards and 20 touchdowns over the past six weeks, during which the Patriots are 6-0.
That includes dominance over Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos, who suddenly find themselves in a slump. Manning lost two of his stud receiving options when tight end Julius Thomas and wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders were knocked out of the game against the St. Louis Rams.
Brady’s streak also includes a blowout win against fellow MVP candidate Andrew Luck, whose offense could only muster 20 points on Sunday Night Football.
Speaking of mustering points, the Pittsburgh Steelers fell behind a bad team for the second consecutive week, rallying to win a 27-24 squeaker. It wasn't quarterback Ben Roethlisberger who led the charge, however—running back Le'Veon Bell shouldered the load.
That pair of six-touchdown games is becoming a distant memory for Big Ben, and running back DeMarco Murray re-entered the picture even after a bye week.
After all, if the Dallas Cowboys finish strong and Murray flirts with 2,000, he will certainly merit consideration.
The cream rises to the top, however, and Rodgers has been rather rich. A few more big games—including a win over the Detroit Lions to theoretically take full possession of the NFC North—and he should be the MVP when the dust settles.
Coach of the Year
2 of 9
In the Running
| Rank | Coach | Team | Last Week |
| 1 | Bruce Arians | Cardinals | 1 |
| 2 | Jim Caldwell | Lions | 2 |
| 3 | Bill Belichick | Patriots | 5 |
| 4 | Mike Pettine | Browns | 3 |
| 5 | Chip Kelly | Eagles | 4 |
Winner: Bruce Arians, Arizona Cardinals
Well, it seems Bruce Arians is well on his way to winning another Coach of the Year award.
His Arizona Cardinals didn’t miss a beat after losing starting quarterback Carson Palmer in Week 10, instead beating fellow Coach of the Year candidate Jim Caldwell’s Detroit Lions squad in defensive fashion.
His team certainly came out firing, however, as backup quarterback Drew Stanton tossed two touchdowns to receiver Michael Floyd in the first quarter. That was all the scoring his team would need.
Caldwell wasn’t the only coach whose team stumbled over a hurdle this week—all but one other Arians challenger lost in Week 11. Mike Pettine’s Cleveland Browns laid an egg against the Houston Texans at home, and Chip Kelly’s Philadelphia Eagles were mauled in Green Bay.
Even Chuck Pagano—who narrowly missed the top-five cut last week—and the Indianapolis Colts lost.
Only Bill Belichick got a win among the top six candidates for this award, Arians aside, and his New England Patriots did it convincingly with a 42-20 drubbing of Pagano’s Colts.
Belichick’s team has had a remarkable turnaround after seemingly nosediving in Week 4, notching impressive wins during a six-game winning streak. If he runs the table—a distinct possibility given the way the Patriots are playing—he might give Arians a run for his money.
With the way Arians has his Cardinals playing, however, that seems unlikely.
Offensive Player of the Year
3 of 9
In the Running
| Rank | Player | Pos. | Team | Last Week |
| 1 | Andrew Luck | QB | Colts | 1 |
| 2 | Peyton Manning | QB | Broncos | 2 |
| 3 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | Packers | 4 |
| 4 | DeMarco Murray | RB | Cowboys | 3 |
| 5 | Tom Brady | QB | Patriots | 5 |
Winner: Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts
Just like the MVP race has tightened up so has the battle for Offensive Player of the Year.
Once again, this award seems to be the consolation prize for the MVP loser. The question is who will be the runner-up come January.
Tom Brady is turning back the clock, but he is still well-behind some of his peers statistically speaking. He has an increasingly strong case to be this year’s MVP, but his offensive resume may not jump off the page enough to match Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning, even though those two had uncharacteristically bad days on Sunday.
After all, both Luck and Manning are still on pace to surpass 5,200 passing yards and 44 touchdowns—the former having just fallen off record pace. Brady likely won't quite reach those levels, even at his torrid pace in recent weeks.
Of course, who knows what might happen with Manning if Julius Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders misses significant time? Luck will be without his favorite safety valve, Ahmad Bradshaw, after the latter broke his ankle against the Patriots. It remains to be seen if the disappointing Trent Richardson will step up in his absence.
Then there is DeMarco Murray, who did nothing to help or hurt his candidacy here last week. That would be because the Dallas Cowboys were on a bye.
The talented running back still has a legitimate shot at joining the hallowed 2,000-yard club, which might catapult him to the top of the list should it come to pass.
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Defensive Player of the Year
4 of 9
In the Running
| Rank | Player | Pos. | Team | Last Week |
| 1 | J.J. Watt | DE | Texans | 1 |
| 2 | Justin Houston | OLB | Chiefs | 2 |
| 3 | Cameron Wake | DE | Dolphins | 3 |
| 4 | Ndamukong Suh | DT | Lions | 4 |
| 5 | Luke Kuechly | ILB | Panthers | 5 |
Winner: J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans
At what point can we start calling J.J. Watt a lock for this award?
Barring injury, there should be no question who winds up as this year’s Defensive Player of the Year.
He was already the leader in the clubhouse by a wide margin after Week 10, and he only padded his resume with another strong showing against the AFC North-leading Cleveland Browns, during which he recovered another fumble.
He also caught his fourth touchdown pass of the season, though whether such exploits should factor into the Defensive Player of the Year award conversation might be debatable.
Justin Houston still leads the league in sacks with 12, but he hasn't registered one in the past couple of games, totaling just nine combined tackles against the Buffalo Bills and Seattle Seahawks.
He is immensely important to a staunch Kansas City Chiefs defense that has the team tied atop the AFC West.
(In fairness, the offense has had something to do with that too.)
True, Carolina Panthers linebacker Luke Kuechly, last year’s winner, leads the league in tackles, but he suffers the same plight Watt did last season—playing for a poor overall defense on a bad team.
None of this really matters, though—Watt is the Defensive Player of the Year, perhaps even if he was to miss the rest of the season. Lucky for the Texans, Watt has never missed a game in his career.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
5 of 9
In the Running
| Rank | Player | Pos. | Team | Last Week |
| 1 | Kelvin Benjamin | WR | Panthers | 1 |
| 2 | Mike Evans | WR | Buccaneers | 4 |
| 3 | Sammy Watkins | WR | Bills | 2 |
| 4 | John Brown | WR | Cardinals | 3 |
| 5 | Jordan Matthews | WR | Eagles | N/A |
Winner: Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If only Kelvin Benjamin got the respect he deserves from the officiating, according to ProFootballTalk's Darin Gantt:
"Rivera told reporters he thought rookie wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin was interfered with in the end zone earlier in the game, potentially costing them points during a 19-17 loss.
Rivera stepped into a basketball metaphor, saying the 6-foot-5, 240-pound Benjamin was like former NBA center Shaquille O’Neal, who often absorbed contact and didn’t get calls because his sheer size made him harder to knock down.
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Imagine what he might do if he didn't absorb so much contact without recourse.
The rookie receiver has been phenomenal at times this season, including yet another incredible touchdown catch against the Atlanta Falcons that got his team going offensively.
Mike Evans has certainly thrust himself into serious contention with the incredible run he is currently on. The big rookie has three consecutive games of seven receptions, totaling 458 yards and five touchdowns in that span.
Because of that, Evans has nearly caught Benjamin in receptions and touchdowns, and he has now surpassed him in terms of yardage.
A few more weeks like those and Evans will surely be at the top of the heap.
Last week’s presumptive winner, Sammy Watkins, had another down week against cornerback Brent Grimes and the Miami Dolphins. With his competitors starting to pull away statistically, the task may be too tall with Kyle Orton as his quarterback in Buffalo.
Philadelphia Eagles receiver Jordan Matthews was banging on the door last week, and another great performance knocked out Dallas Cowboys offensive guard Zack Martin, who was idle last week.
Matthews has come on strong in recent weeks, seemingly thanks to a rapport with replacement quarterback Mark Sanchez. The rookie has racked up four scores and two 100-yard games in the past three weeks.
If he can sustain that kind of production, he will quickly rise to challenge the top contenders.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
6 of 9
In the Running
| Rank | Player | Pos. | Team | Last Week |
| 1 | Aaron Donald | DT | Rams | 3 |
| 2 | Anthony Barr | OLB | Vikings | 1 |
| 3 | C.J. Mosley | ILB | Ravens | 2 |
| 4 | Khalil Mack | OLB | Raiders | 4 |
| 5 | Chris Borland | ILB | 49ers | N/A |
Winner: Aaron Donald, DT, St. Louis Rams
Forget his snap count—Aaron Donald is just dominant right now.
The St. Louis Rams tackle has become a force in the middle of that defensive line. Most recently, he was a big part of an indefatigable onslaught on quarterback Peyton Manning en route to an unlikely victory over the Denver Broncos.
Few could have guessed Chris Borland would make such a big impact in San Francisco as a rookie, but injuries to both NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis at inside linebacker have thrown the rookie into the fire.
He has become tempered, and the 49ers defense hasn't missed a beat with him in the middle. Despite a lower snap count due to being inactive during Weeks 2-4, Borland is now the second-highest-rated inside linebacker in all of football, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
Teammate Justin Smith said Borland has been "playing out of his mind," as 49ers beat writer Eric Branch tweeted.
Borland deserves consideration for this award, even if his late start will probably prevent him from winning it. He has quickly made his presence felt, and he's climbing the rookie ladder even faster.
This award is really up for grabs, however. If one of these guys has a strong finish, he will more than likely take it. The writers predicting the awards over at NFL.com reflect that sentiment with their divergent picks.
Chris Wesseling and Marc Sessler think Mosley will win the award, while Gregg Rosenthal likes Borland despite his limited playing time this year. Dan Hanzus thinks Barr is the man, and Kevin Patra likes Khalil Mack even though his team may not record a single win.
You will note none of them thinks Donald is deserving—yet. He has just begun opening eyes.
NFL Rookie of the Year
7 of 9
In the Running
| Rank | Player | Pos. | Team | Last Week |
| 1 | Kelvin Benjamin | WR | Panthers | 1 |
| 2 | Aaron Donald | DT | Rams | 5 |
| 3 | Mike Evans | WR | Buccaneers | N/A |
| 4 | Anthony Barr | OLB | Vikings | 2 |
| 5 | Sammy Watkins | WR | Bills | 3 |
Winner: Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Once again, defense rarely wins awards when stacked up against offensive competition. Without a J.J. Watt-like performance from any of the rookie defenders, this award will likely see another recipient on the offensive side.
Hence, the predicted Offensive Rookie of the Year makes sense as the top overall rookie, at least if this doesn't work like the Offensive Player of the Year award—you know, the consolation prize for whoever comes in second in the MVP voting.
Perhaps a weak finish from the top receivers in combination with continuing dominance by Aaron Donald or perhaps a hot streak by one of his competitors on the defensive side will get Mike Evans to the top.
Comeback Player of the Year
8 of 9
In the Running
| Rank | Player | Pos. | Team | Last Week |
| 1 | Jeremy Maclin | WR | Eagles | 1 |
| 2 | Rob Gronkowski | TE | Patriots | 2 |
| 3 | Geno Atkins | DT | Bengals | 3 |
| 4 | Henry Melton | DT | Cowboys | 4 |
| 5 | Rolando McClain | ILB | Cowboys | N/A |
Winner: Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots
For now, Philadelphia Eagles receiver Jeremy Maclin holds a lead over New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski.
Both are having great years returning from injury, and both are certainly deserving. Perhaps they will both win the award a la Carolina Panthers receiver Steve Smith and New England Patriots linebacker Tedy Bruschi in 2005.
At this rate, that is not out of the question. Maclin is on pace for over 1,400 yards receiving and 14 touchdowns, while Gronkowski's tear has him eyeing nearly 1,200 yards and the same number of scores.
But that likelihood is low—there can only be one. Probably.
Gronkowski has gotten stronger as the season has progressed, and he has been a catalyst for the balefire offense the Patriots have on display. He has a better shot of consistently putting up huge numbers besides, given the disparity in quarterbacks.
As well as Mark Sanchez has played in Philadelphia, he is no Tom Brady.
Further down the pack we see a healthy Geno Atkins playing well in the middle of the Cincinnati Bengals defense. Though he hasn't regained the dominance he possessed before his injury, Atkins has bounced back strong.
Similar things can be said about Henry Melton in Dallas, who is among the best defensive tackles over at PFF.
It has been quite the year for fellow Dallas Cowboys middle linebacker Rolando McClain.
His career has been resuscitated after sporadic retirements while with the Baltimore Ravens which saw McClain miss a full year of football. Few gave him a shot to make any sort of impact this season, yet here he is starting and playing well.
He made his case for the award early, as NFL.com's Kimberly Jones elucidated:
""He's a guy that you love playing with," cornerback Orlando Scandrick said. "He brings a physical presence, just brings that spirit that we feed off of on defense."
Said Mincey: "He's a big man in the middle. Rolando leads with his pads; he just makes plays."
McClain ranks third among Cowboys with 31 tackles and leads the team with three tackles for loss and two interceptions.
"I'm just happy to be with the Dallas Cowboys, and I'm happy with our success so far," McClain said. "I'm having fun with my teammates and having a good time."
"
A month later, McClain is still playing well, but he has been dinged up.
Unfortunately, though he was a strong contender out of the gate, he has since been overtaken by his deserving peers.
Fantasy Player of the Year
9 of 9
In the Running
| Rank | Player | Pos. | Team | Last Week | Fantasy Points |
| 1 | DeMarco Murray | RB | Cowboys | 1 | 193.4 |
| 2 | Antonio Brown | WR | Steelers | 4 | 171.4 |
| 3 | Rob Gronkowski | TE | Patriots | N/A | 127.4 |
| 4 | Andrew Luck | QB | Colts | 5 | 306.8 |
| 5 | Matt Forte | RB | Bears | 3 | 166.8 |
Winner: DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Hopefully, it has been a refreshing week off for DeMarco Murray. His fantasy owners could use a reinvigorated running back of his caliber.
The Dallas Cowboys bell cow has been nothing short of spectacular this season, but his past two games were a bit disappointing after he set the record with eight consecutive 100-yard games to start the season.
An injury to Julius Thomas knocked the Denver Broncos tight end from the ranks of this award, though he may be back soon to continue stating his case. In his place is Comeback Player of the Year candidate Rob Gronkowski, that menacing tight end for the New England Patriots.
The best part about selecting Gronkowski in fantasy drafts is the likelihood leaguemates were too scared to take him in the first couple of rounds due to his lengthy injury history. A gamble on Gronk has paid off nicely for those who took the plunge.
All fantasy statistics courtesy of FFToday.com. Unless otherwise stated, all other statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com.
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