NBA Trade Targets Who Would Push Playoff Contenders over the Top
Trade season is not yet upon the NBA.
That doesn't mean the wheeling and dealing shouldn't begin now, though—especially for the Association's championship-chasers and fringe contenders.
There are still plenty of games to play before completely understanding which teams are on the verge of exploding. But there are just as many names that spring to mind when wondering which players could be postseason difference-makers for title-hunting contingents.
These names are not necessarily present trade fodder. They are players who, for one reason or another, could become available in the coming weeks and months.
Any number of things goes into identifying these needle-nudging targets. Contract status will weight heavily, as will incumbent teams' standing. Does Player X have a future with Team Y? That's the question we need to be asking.
As for potential destinations, we won't get caught up in tangible trade proposals or the most realistic scenarios. Nor will we name obvious rebuilding teams and alleged tankers (San Antonio Spurs) or dynastic squads that don't typically pull midseason triggers (Philadelphia 76ers). Instead, we're looking for reputable contenders and almost-contenders that need an added punch. ("Idealistic fits" is the operative phrase here.)
Now, let's get moving. It's time to work the retro rotary phones and see which impact players deserve better homes.
Greg Monroe, Detroit Pistons
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Greg Monroe didn't do himself and the Detroit Pistons any immediate favors when he signed his qualifying offer. It's now open season on speculating where he'll sign next summer, because he's obviously leaving...right?
"Just because I signed a qualifying offer people assume I'm leaving," Monroe said in October, via the Detroit Free Press' Perry A. Farrell. "That's not the case. I love Detroit and the people here."
Alleged love may not matter. Josh Smith and Monroe still cannot play together—Detroit is being outscored by seven points per 100 possessions with both on the floor this year—and the former is owed $40.5 million through 2016-17, rendering him nearly immovable. Monroe is easier to deal and he's a flight risk. Trading him helps the Pistons clear a frontcourt logjam while securing assets (preferably shooters) as compensation.
Since returning from suspension, Monroe also been an absolute beast, averaging 17.3 points, 11 rebounds and 2.7 assists on 50.6 percent shooting. His rim protection is shaky at best—opponents are hitting 57.5 percent of their shots at the iron against him—but he's a double-double demon who can play the 4 or 5.
Acquiring him promises instant offense and rebounding. He's been the most reliable scorer in Detroit since 2011, and his $5.4 million salary means he won't cost a star. A stable of picks and/or young talent should at least get the ball rolling. Landing Monroe gives his next team the inside track on retaining him over the offseason as well.
Fringe stars move the needle. Monroe is capable of transforming an offense and raising an already championship-capped ceiling and is therefore a fringe star.
Ideal Destinations: Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers, Houston Rockets
Reggie Jackson, Oklahoma City Thunder
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Of anyone here, Reggie Jackson will be the most difficult player to acquire. Though he failed to sign a contract extension with the Oklahoma City Thunder, general manager Sam Presti has said the team won't trade him. Thing is, he said the same thing about Jeff Green in 2010 and we know the Thunder tried to retain James Harden in 2012.
Both players were traded before reaching restricted free agency.
Waiting to deal Jackson—assuming Oklahoma City cannot afford his long-term price tag—makes sense on many levels. The Thunder could sign-and-trade him elsewhere over the summer, using his newly ballooned income to net more assets. His current $2.2 million salary can only get them so much.
But waiting is a risk. Signing and trading Jackson only becomes possible if he holds off on inking another offer sheet. Once he puts pen to paper on a proposed contract, the Thunder can only match it or let him go; they cannot deal him. Trading him before this season is out ensures they receive something in return for his potentially inevitable departure.
And they would most definitely receive something. Jackson is one of the only players standing between the Thunder and permanent purgatory while Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are out. He's averaging 22.8 points, 7.5 assists and four rebounds per game, and though he's shooting just 43.1 percent from the field, he joins Stephen Curry and Kobe Bryant as the only players to register back-to-back 28-point, four-assist performances this season.
Any contender looking for a consistent complementary scoring option who can man either guard position without compromising defensive sets would be wise to take a flier.
Ideal Destinations: Houston Rockets, Dallas Mavericks, Miami Heat
Nikola Pekovic, Minnesota Timberwolves
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Offensively apt big men are tough to come by these days. Center is not a meaningless position, but so many elite towers are limited defensive specialists who score predominantly off lobs and teammate-generated point-blank opportunities.
Nikola Pekovic is an exception, in every imaginable way. He is by no means a defensive treasure; opponents are shooting 60 percent against him at the rim in 2014-15. But he is a scoring machine who doesn't rely heavily on others for his points.
Only 52.8 percent of his buckets have come off assists this season. Someone like DeAndre Jordan, by comparison, is receiving help 78.6 percent of the time. Pekovic would ideally possess some defensive dexterity, but what he does on the offensive end—post up, face up, hit jumpers, etc.—outweighs his shortcomings.
Prying him from the Minnesota Timberwolves also shouldn't be too tricky. His playing time is already down from last season, Gorgui Dieng looks like a weapon of the future and clearing the remaining $47.9 million on Pekovic's contract from the ledger is something the rebuilding Timberwolves should be somewhat interested in doing.
Price stands to become an issue, but a willingness to absorb his $12-plus million salary is an asset by itself. Frequent double-doubles and offensive range cost money at the 5. Possible 2016 cap eruption in mind, Pekovic is well worth whatever he costs to a contender looking for instantaneous, yet lasting, production at center.
Ideal Destinations: Oklahoma City Thunder, Toronto Raptors, Phoenix Suns
Tobias Harris, Orlando Magic
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Tobias Harris' future with the Orlando Magic is complicated—which is good for any championship hopefuls in need of wing depth.
After failing to reach an extension with Orlando before the Oct. 31 deadline, Harris is primed to enter restricted free agency. Though the Magic can match any offer sheet he signs, the emergence of Evan Fournier in Victor Oladipo's absence arguably makes Harris expendable if the price isn't right. He's taking home just under $2.4 million this year, but he's due for a raise that should see his annual salary rocket into eight-figure range.
As the Magic's third-leading scorer, Harris won't come cheap. He's averaging 16.9 points, 8.3 rebounds and 1.0 steals per game on a rookie-scale salary. Valuable draft picks or cheap young talent would need to exchange hands—a price worth paying considering all he can do as a glorified role player.
"He's a big wing with a nice touch around the basket and the versatility to play up a position at power forward," wrote ESPN.com's Amin Elhassan (subscription required). "While his 3-point range is still a work in progress, he does a good job of drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line, where he converted at an 81 percent clip last season."
Shooting efficiency remains Harris' greatest pratfall. But while he's connecting on just 42.9 percent of his shots overall, his developing three-point touch is hovering just below 37 percent. Playing on a team for which he's not a primary option should help his percentages climb even higher, allowing him to serve as both an offensive and defensive boon well into May.
Ideal Destinations: Memphis Grizzlies, Los Angeles Clippers, New Orleans Pelicans
Larry Sanders, Milwaukee Bucks
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John Henson needs more playing time. Someone from the Milwaukee Bucks must go for that to happen. Ersan Ilyasova is neither a needle-nudger nor worth his contract, and Zaza Pachulia won't start bidding wars, so that leaves....Larry Sanders.
The 25-year-old Sanders could be part of Milwaukee's future, but he's owed $44 million through 2017-18, and the Bucks have enough size and length without him. He's also an offensive detriment.
"Is a team with Larry Sanders doomed to be below average on offense?," writes Brew Hoop's Steve von Horn. "Our favorite stone-handed tube man is a valuable asset on defense, but ESPN's Real Plus-Minus metric has him pegged as one of the 20-most destructive offensive players in the NBA. He's been even worse than normal to start this season."
Sanders' 38.2 percent shooting speaks for itself. So, too, does the fact that the Bucks' bottom-two offense is 11.1 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the floor, according to NBA.com (subscription required). The 90.4 points per 100 possessions they average with him in the game equates to the league's worst offense ever.
Still, Sanders is a preeminent rim protector. Opponents are hitting just 47.5 percent of their shots around the basket against him, and Milwaukee's second-ranked defense is noticeably better with him in the game. He's a good fit for a strong—or soon-to-be strong—playoff-bound offense that's looking to bolster its defense now and for the next few years.
Ideal Destinations: Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks, Phoenix Suns
Iman Shumpert, New York Knicks
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Restricted free agents aren't typically flight risks—Iman Shumpert is the exception of all exceptions.
New York Knicks president Phil Jackson isn't expected to re-sign the fourth-year guard over the offseason as he continues to chase superstars, according to ESPN New York's Ian Begley. With both Tim Hardaway Jr. and J.R. Smith expected back next year as well, Shumpert's future in New York is cloudy at best. And if it becomes apparent the financially flush Knicks won't pay up, they should work the phones rather than watch him leave for nothing.
Although it's taken more than three years, he finally appears to be coming into his own as a premier three-and-D guy. He's banging in a gaudy 53.3 percent of his treys while attempting a career-high 3.0 per game. The 24-year-old swingman is also the only valuable perimeter defender—really, the only defender at all—the Knicks have on the roster.
Shumpert can play either the 2 or 3 spot and is capable of guarding three positions on the floor, including point guard. That his off-ball offense is through the roof—he's drilling 60 percent of his spot-up threes—further proves he can be a pivotal contributor on an actual contender.
The Knicks are not that contender.
Any number of other teams could be.
Ideal Destinations: Cleveland Cavaliers, Los Angeles Clippers, Dallas Mavericks
Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks
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Paul Millsap will enter the NBA's rumor mill at some point. Whether the chatter is baseless or substantiated, it's going to happen. He's making only $9.5 million this season and tracking toward unrestricted free agency. Anonymously sourced scuttlebutt is inevitable.
It's not hard to see why either. Aside from his incredibly reasonable salary, the Atlanta Hawks have helped Millsap morph into a stretch forward who can play both the 3 and 4 positions. His three-point percentage has improved in each of the last three seasons and now sits at 37.5 percent, a career high. He's also draining 55.6 percent (5 of 9) of his strong-side bombs.
That he's able to thrive playing system basketball only makes him more valuable. The Hawks run a Spurs-like motion-heavy offense. They rank in the top 10 of passes per game and are on pace to register the league's highest assist rate for the second year running. Millsap is pumping in 16.6 points and 3.0 assists in that system as both an on- and off-ball weapon. He's also putting in 40 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes.
“Anywhere could be an option. But my loyalty right now is in Atlanta," he said of this upcoming summer, according to the New York Post's Marc Berman. "Free agency is free agency. When it happens, I’ll weigh my options and see where I’m at. But I’m happy in Atlanta right now."
There's little reason for the Hawks to deal Millsap, who dabbles in glass-crashing (8.6 rebounds) and lane-clogging (2.0 steals), when he's playing so well and enjoying Atlanta's company. Going on 30 years old, though, he is due for a lucrative payday.
If the Hawks don't want to invest four years and tens of millions of dollars in retaining him, it's reason enough to explore a trade that leaves one difference-maker-starved contender exceptionally ecstatic.
Ideal Destinations: Houston Rockets, Golden State Warriors, Charlotte Hornets
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com. Salary information via ShamSports.
