UFC 180: Main Card Staff Picks for Werdum vs. Hunt
If some previous UFC cards caught an injury bug, UFC 180 caught zombies.
That's not how you want to be slouching into Mexico City, the proud cradle of so much combat sports tradition and the epicenter of many an MMA expansion dream. But here we are, with Cain Velasquez and Diego Sanchez and Erik Perez and Joe Lauzon watching from the sick ward as Chris Heatherly and Hector Urbina suit up for the pay-per-view.
Never before was injury misfortune so surgically precise in its disemboweling of an event. But you know what? We're survivors. We're going to beat this thing. How? By making predictions for the main card, not by turning away from it. And there are a couple of good scraps still breathing, like Fabricio Werdum and Mark Hunt for the interim heavyweight strap. Life goes on.
So you can pretend all you want, bro, but we're living in the real world. James "The Athlete" MacDonald. Craig "Cookie" Amos. Riley "Kobra" Kontek. Sean "Salmon" Smith. And myself, Scott Harris. Let's get it on.
Staff Picks Standings
1 of 6
Look at The Live Blogger surging out to a two-game lead. That is pretty, pret-tyyyy good.
You know what's not good? Me, at picking fights.
Craig Amos: 131-69-1
Riley Kontek: 129-71-1
James MacDonald: 128-71-1
Sean Smith: 124-76-1
Scott Harris: 117-83-1
Edgar Garcia vs. Hector Urbina
2 of 6Riley Kontek
I'm really stoked this fight is on the main card. Oh, wait, no I'm not. This fight should be on UFC Fight Pass. Hector Urbina was eliminated in the first round of The Ultimate Fighter 19, while Edgar Garcia returns for his second stint with the company. I refuse to break this down much. Garcia is superior to Urbina and will prove it.
Garcia, Unanimous decision
Craig Amos
I look forward to hearing Joe Rogan and Mike Goldberg hype this as a pay-per-view-worthy matchup more than I look forward to the fight itself. Garcia has actually looked pretty good of late, so this is his fight to lose.
Garcia, KO, Rd. 1
Sean Smith
This might be the weakest main card bout we've had to predict all year, including the UFC Fight Pass shows. It's hard to count on either of these guys, but this looks like a matchup designed to get the Mexican crowd going by getting the Mexican-born Garcia a victory. Garcia went 0-2 in his original UFC stint, but I think he'll start out strong in his return.
Garcia, TKO, Rd. 1
James MacDonald
I can’t say I’m particularly looking forward to this fight. Does it have any business being on a PPV main card? That aside, Garcia’s past experience with the UFC should serve him well against Urbina. Look for a late TKO from Garcia on his UFC return.
Garcia, TKO, Rd. 3
Scott Harris
Everyone else likes to joke. I'm happy to share the journey with these two journeymen. It's just the kind of guy I am. Garcia was cast out of the UFC in 2009 after losing to DaMarques Johnson. Let that wash over you. Urbina was ground out by Cathal Pendred on TUF. I think Garcia has more skills and will get it done.
Garcia, submission, Rd. 2
Chris Heatherly vs. Augusto Montano
3 of 6
Kontek
This fight is sick, and I am excited it's on the main card. Yeah, that was sarcasm. A UFC beginner in Montano is taking on an 0-1 UFC employee who was submitted via omoplata in his debut. This is definitely worthy of a PPV spot (again, obvious sarcasm). Heatherly's wrestling is the difference, and I will leave it at that.
Heatherly, Unanimous decision
Amos
I believe the UFC could rightly charge more for this card if it shaved the main card down to just three matches (zing!). This seems like a Fight Night prelim. Let us hope that it is at least entertaining since its importance is negligible. Also, Heatherly will win.
Heatherly, Submission, Rd. 2
Smith
With stoppages in all 13 of his MMA wins, Montano is an intriguing addition to the UFC welterweight division. That said, he lost to Sam Alvey, the only opponent with UFC experience that he's faced. I'm not sure Heatherly has what it takes to be successful at the highest level after getting caught in an omoplata in his UFC debut, but he can win this fight by getting it to the ground quickly and avoiding Montano's power.
Heatherly, Unanimous decision
MacDonald
Montano’s record looks the part, but his competition thus far has been less than spectacular. Still, he should have enough in his toolkit to deal with Heatherly, who failed to impress in his recent loss to Ben Saunders.
Montano, TKO, Rd. 2
Harris
I assumed Heatherly would open as a substantial betting favorite over Montano, mainly because Montano is a 30-year-old making his UFC debut. It looks like that omoplata is going to stay with Heatherly for a long time. Concerns about his 5'8" stature may also linger; he's giving up six inches of height to Montano. But I already picked the wrestler to grind out the Mexico City native, so that's what I'll stick with.
Heatherly, Unanimous decision
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Ricardo Lamas vs. Dennis Bermudez
4 of 6
Kontek
Dennis Bermudez's meteoric rise at 145 has been impressive, there is no doubt about that. He has been wrecking everybody in his path lately. That said, Ricardo Lamas does everything that Bermudez does, except better. This will be a close fight that comes down to the wire, but the former title challenger will come out victorious.
Lamas, Unanimous decision
Amos
Fun fact: Lamas and Bermudez share the exact same average fight-length time (11:19), according to Fightmetric. Don't be shocked if this one ends with precisely 3:41 to go in the final round. I personally think it'll go the distance, though.
Bermudez, Unanimous decision
Smith
While Lamas will be the toughest test Bermudez has had, The Menace had a good primer for this matchup when he met Clay Guida in July. Like Guida, Lamas can be described as a fast-paced wrestler, and Bermudez handled that style well in a submission victory. I think Bermudez will carry the momentum from seven straight wins into this matchup and keep it going with some ground-and-pound.
Bermudez, TKO, Rd. 2
MacDonald
This is a tough fight to call. Lamas may not quite be at the level of the absolute elite of the featherweight division, but he’s a tough out for anyone. If Bermudez can win and do so impressively, he’ll have made a significant statement. I expect the TUF veteran to get it done on the feet in a very competitive fight.
Bermudez, Unanimous decision
Harris
All Lamas does is win fights. But I disagree with Kontek's assessment: I think Bermudez, not Lamas, does the better version of their shared style. He'll beat Lamas to some punches, and the UFC will get its wish: a fresh and bona fide contender at 145 pounds.
Bermudez, Unanimous decision
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Jake Ellenberger
5 of 6
Kontek
Kelvin Gastelum is certainly one of the brightest prospects at 170 pounds right now, but Jake Ellenberger is a big step up in competition for him. He's not a better wrestler than Ellenberger, nor is he a better striker. It will be a major learning experience that sends him back to the drawing board with a good experience under his belt.
Ellenberger, Unanimous decision
Amos
This marks the point for Kelvin Gastelum where he either enters the ranks of contention or gets shoved back down the ladder. It's equally pivotal for Ellenberger, who won't be in an enviable position if he drops his third straight contest. I'll guess that Gastelum ushers in a changing of the guard.
Gastelum, TKO, Rd. 3
Smith
On the heels of a decision win over Nico Musoke, Gastelum is getting a big step up in competition. Ellenberger has lost two in a row, but he's still among the best in the welterweight class. I think Gastelum will be at that level eventually, but not right now.
Ellenberger, Unanimous decision
MacDonald
I have my doubts about how far Ellenberger can go. He has been exposed recently and has frozen up against the likes of Rory MacDonald and Robbie Lawler. Gastelum has developed into a terrific fighter, and I anticipate a win over Ellenberger serving as something of a coming-out party for the former TUF winner.
Gastelum, Unanimous decision
Harris
Looks like I'm casting the tiebreaker. It's really easy to picture an Ellenberger knockout and a torrent of "he's back and still great" (some of it self-revisionist). I can picture it all in my head. But I still like Gastelum and his heavy wrestling and clinch work to control the day. It's the easy choice. I like easy stuff.
Gastelum, Unanimous decision
Fabricio Werdum vs. Mark Hunt
6 of 6
Kontek
Mark Hunt's Cinderella story has been awesome, and there's a good chance he hoists gold at the end of UFC 180. However, it's a long shot. Between Fabricio Werdum's vastly improved striking and vastly superior ground game, Hunt really has just a puncher's chance. That's a good chance for him, but Werdum is a crafty vet who will weather a storm and claim gold.
Werdum, Submission, Rd. 3
Amos
Werdum's recent striking progress should allow him to survive—if not do a lot more than that—on the feet, while his jiu-jitsu game remains light years ahead of Hunt's. As good as the Super Samoan has been of late, Werdum has been better but just hasn't garnered the same type of attention. He'll have to settle for becoming a UFC champion instead.
Werdum, Submission, Rd. 2
Smith
While Hunt has improved his takedown and submission defenses by leaps and bounds, he hasn't met a grappler like Werdum inside the Octagon. The Brazilian's grappling is on another level. As long as he can find a way to drag Hunt down, Werdum won't need much time to lock up a submission.
Werdum, Submission, Rd. 1
MacDonald
This is just a bad matchup for Hunt. If Werdum secures even one takedown, I fear it may be curtains for our unlikely hero. Of course, if Hunt manages to keep the fight standing, he always has a shot at winning. That being said, I genuinely think Werdum will be competitive even in a kickboxing contest.
Werdum, Submission, Rd. 1
Harris
Hunt himself has basically admitted this week that, in these circumstances, he probably has one round in which to make a victory happen for himself. Seems unlikely. I think the first round will be electric and then Werdum will get him to the ground. Hunt will fend off a submission or two, but by that point he'll be gassed, and Werdum will be content to use his muay thai in the championship rounds to bloody up the big guy (see Roy Nelson) and take the belt back to Brazil.
Werdum, Unanimous decision
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