NFL Picks Week 11: Full Predictions and Breakdown of Potential Upsets

Every week in the NFL brings a new set of interesting games for bettors to salivate over. Week 11 is no exception.

The previous slate brought some surprises that likely no one saw coming, namely the New York Jets' triumph over the Pittsburgh Steelers. However, there likely won't be a second straight upset for the black and gold against the Tennessee Titans.

Given the current lines for this weekend's games, there are sure to be more than a few teams that fall in surprising fashion. Picking every game correctly, in turn, becomes an arduous feat.

Prior to the Thursday Night Football game kicking off, here's a current look at the lines, picks and analysis for upsets in Week 11.

Matchup	Spread	Pick (ATS)
Buffalo at Miami (Thurs., Nov. 13)	MIA -4	MIA
Minnesota at Chicago	CHI -4.5	MIN
Houston at Cleveland	CLE -3	CLE
Seattle at Kansas City	SEA -1	SEA
Atlanta at Carolina	CAR -2.5	ATL
Cincinnati at New Orleans	NO -5.5	NO
Tampa Bay at Washington	WAS -6	TB
Denver at St. Louis	DEN -8	DEN
San Francisco at NY Giants	SF -3	SF
Oakland at San Diego	SD -11	SD
Philadelphia at Green Bay	GB -4.5	GB
Detroit at Arizona	ARI -3	DET
New England at Indianapolis	IND -2	NE
Pittsburgh at Tennessee (Mon., Nov. 17)	PIT -4	PIT

Odds via Odds Shark as of 6:30 p.m. ET, Nov. 13.

Upset Picks

Philadelphia Eagles (+4.5) at Green Bay Packers

Quarterback Mark Sanchez might actually be for real. Fans of the Philadelphia Eagles aren't exactly going out and buying his jersey, but he looks like a formidable leader under center.

But the reason why the Eagles might win this game has nothing to do with Sanchez or the offense as a whole. It's the defense and special teams that have been the real story lately for the Iggles' success.

Philadelphia put on a show with nine sacks against the Carolina Panthers, but that performance wasn't a fluke. In fact, Zach Rodgers of ESPN.com points out how well the pass rush has played this season:

"

The Eagles have pressured opposing quarterbacks on 33 percent of their dropbacks, the highest rate in the league this season.

As a result, the Eagles have turned a below-average pass defense into a formidable unit. 

The only defensive player with more disrupted dropbacks than Connor Barwin (14.5) and Bradley Fletcher (14) is J.J. Watt (15.5). 

"

Linebacker Connor Barwin is enjoying a breakout season with 10.5 sacks, two more stuffs, four passes defended and a forced fumble. In short, the Eagles might not always get nine sacks, but they camp out in the opposition's backfield.

If Sanchez can control the offense and the Eagles' D can shut down quarterback Aaron Rodgers, Philly should keep flying. Tack on the fact that running back Darren Sproles can provide a spark on special teams, and this looks like a promising matchup for the Eagles.

New England Patriots (+2) at Indianapolis Colts

New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has a way of getting into young quarterbacks' heads. If they play for the Indianapolis Colts, Belichick tends to make a concerted effort to take advantage of them early in their careers.

Take Peyton Manning, for example. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning's rivalry was almost never really a "thing" because Belichick defeated Manning six straight times with Brady under center.

Now, he's doing the same to Andrew Luck. Through their first two meetings, the Patriots have beaten a Luck-led Colts in both games by a combined 56 points. Luck spoke about whether he thinks about that fact, per Gregg Doyel of the Indianapolis Star:

"

That's a good question. I haven't thought about it like that. Maybe at some point it may become a thing, I don't know. Maybe. ...

Hey, it's the next game versus a very good team. Got to go out and perform regardless of what happened two years ago, one year, last week, however long ago.

"

Did you expect anything less than coach-speak from Luck? But even with both offenses rolling coming in, Luck needs to be worried due to the quarterback on the other side. The Pats have won by an average of 18.6 points over the last five games.

Brady has plenty of experience in these big games, even though he fell well short against the Kansas City Chiefs earlier this year. Expect Brady to come out and exploit the Indy defense with weapons like wide receiver Brandon LaFell and tight end Rob Gronkowski, a la Ben Roethlisberger.

Detroit Lions (+3) at Arizona Cardinals

We've seen what the Arizona Cardinals look like with quarterback Drew Stanton, but this is a completely different type of pressure.

Carson Palmer helped lead the team to an 8-1 record, but he will miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL. Stanton now takes the reins again without the team believing Palmer will return to lead it.

He was a good game manager earlier this season, throwing for two touchdowns and no turnovers during his three starts. Going against a stout defense like the Detroit Lions, things certainly won't be as easy for Stanton.

Outside of the Detroit's defense, its offense finally has its biggest player at full health. Having receivers Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, QB Matthew Stafford will exploit the Cardinals pass defense as the Lions move to 8-2.

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