NASCAR at Homestead 2014: Complete Preview and Prediction for Ford EcoBoost 400
"Overture, curtains, lights
This is it, you'll hit the heights
And oh what heights we'll hit
On with the show this is it — The Bugs Bunny Overture
"
This is it. The showdown at the Homestead-Miami Speedway. The long and mostly left-turning road that began back in Daytona Beach in February will finally come to an end.
Or as Kevin Harvick’s beloved UFC might put it, “Four go in, one comes out.”
It’s not really going to be that dramatic, but Sunday's Ford EcoBoost 400 does pit four of the best NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers after 35 races in a best-finisher-take-all event. And you can expect that there will be some serious contact in the closing laps before the checkers fly, between whoever remains of the four Chase drivers.
“This is all about winning a championship. That’s what we all show up for,” Harvick said in his pre-race media release.
There are no more Chase rounds, no more test sessions and no more anything other than 400 miles between them and immortality.
What's left to do is for Harvick, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin and Ryan Newman to race (with 39 other drivers alongside of them just to make it really entertaining). And when the race is over, NASCAR will get to crown a first-time Sprint Cup champion.
Qualifying Report
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Jeff Gordon, who missed being in the final Chase field of four due to a tiebreaker, will start from the pole for Sunday’s Ford EcoBoost 400, the 2014 Sprint Cup season finale.
Gordon’s winning lap of 29.876 seconds, 180.747 mph came midway through the final five-minute session of knockout qualifying. Kurt Busch, who was in the original Chase field of 16 starts alongside Gordon, earned the No. 2 slot with a lap of 29.895 seconds, 180.632 mph.
Gordon’s pole, the 200th for Hendrick Motorsports, comes on a day when Gordon had expressed his deep disappointment in not making it into the final field of four before a live television audience after qualifying:
"I think the way we are looking at this weekend is we want to close out the season the absolute best we can. It has been a tremendous season. The No. 24 team has been incredible this year. We are disappointed that we aren't in this thing for the championship, but that's not going to stop us from trying to go out to win the pole and win the race.
"
Matt Kenseth starts third, Brad Keselowski fourth and Kevin Harvick, the highest-qualifying Chase finalist, rounds out the top five.
Of the remaining Chase finalists, Denny Hamlin starts eighth, Joey Logano ninth and Ryan Newman 21st. Newman was the ninth-fastest car during the only practice session prior to qualifying. His team failed to adjust for the cooler track conditions. Newman remained positive.
“A buddy of mine once said it isn't where you start, it is where you stop,” Newman joked during a live television interview during qualifying.
Hamlin is the defending race winner.
*Qualifying statistics courtesy of NASCAR Integrated Marketing Communications.
By the Numbers: Homestead-Miami Speedway and the Ford EcoBoost 400
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Miami has always felt like a racing town to me. Back in the mid-1980s, CART Indy Cars used to run in the parking lots of Tamiami Park, in the western suburbs of the city.
Promoter Ralph Sanchez eventually brought the race to the streets of downtown Miami, where CART and also IMSA would stage memorable Indy Car and sports-car races, respectively, on Biscayne Boulevard, the main street in Miami. Those were competitive events filled with overflowing crowds on a scenic course built alongside Biscayne Bay.
But Sanchez always dreamed of having a real race track where both NASCAR and Indy Cars could race. When Hurricane Andrew ripped through South Florida in August 1992, it decimated the area, leaving large expanses of land barren.
As part of the rebuilding effort, Sanchez purchased the property where Homestead-Miami Speedway now sits, and it was there that he built his dream.
NASCAR came in 1995, and the following spring, CART raced on the oval. It was truly a “build it and they will come” moment.
I know all this because I grew up in South Florida and attended those races.
Ford EcoBoost400
Where: Homestead-Miami Speedway
When: Sunday, Nov. 16
Time: Green flag is approx. 3:18 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN's NASCAR Countdown begins 2 p.m. ET
Radio: Motor Racing Network (MRN), Sirius XM Ch. 90
Distance: 400.5 miles (267 laps)
Key Storylines
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Denny Hamlin Becomes the Sentimental Favorite
I’m not really sure why I wrote that headline other than Hamlin’s probably come closest out of the four to winning the championship, only to end up losing.
In 2010, Hamlin lost the championship in the final race, after coming into the race on a roll, winning eight races and sitting a precious 15 points ahead of Jimmie Johnson.
In reality, he lost it earlier in the week after losing a battle of wits with eventual champion Johnson, who proudly claimed that he’d gotten a good night’s sleep on the night before the pre-race media conference and that he hoped Hamlin did, too.
That was just enough to push Hamlin’s fragile psyche over the edge, and he had a horrible race. He finished 14th to Johnson’s second place.
Hamlin hasn’t forgotten. It took him the better part of the past three years to forget. He’d even taken some time with a sports psychologist to get past it.
Many fans thought he was the favorite for the title from the get-go, when he won everything at Daytona in February but the Daytona 500. And we all know where that trophy sits today.
Nevertheless, I can’t help but write that Hamlin is the sentimental favorite, if only because going by the “you have to lose one to win one” philosophy, his 2010 title loss to Johnson was a big one.
Lack of Star Power Is the Draw to the Season Finale
I hate to disagree with our own Jerry Bonkowski, but the very fact that drivers such as Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Brad Keselowski are not in the race is the very reason why more casual fans will tune in to the television broadcast.
Why watch it if you already know that the guy who won the majority of the races this season is running against a guy who’s won one race and another guy who hasn’t even won one?
There are a lot of fans, former and current, who would love to see if the driver who hasn’t won a race can actually be crowned the champion. It would make this new Chase format all the more farcical.
And if that’s not enough reason to tune in, then how about the “let the boys have at it, stay around for the post-race fireworks” attitude that NASCAR officials have taken?
Don’t kid yourself. If you don’t think this is going to be the best NASCAR race in a long, long, long time, then don’t tune in and miss what everyone else will be talking about on Monday morning.
Ch-Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes Coming in 2015
Although I touched upon some of the changes in "Storylines": Marcos Ambrose leaving NASCAR to head back to Australia to race, Dave Blaney calling it quits and Carl Edwards leaving Roush Fenway Racing—the only team he’s ever driven for in NASCAR—for Joe Gibbs Racing next season, there are other changes that have either been announced or are expected.
Biggest among them is the departure of Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s crew chief Steve Letarte for the NBC Sports NASCAR broadcast booth. Letarte’s exit will leave a bit of a hole in the No. 88 garage, but it will make the analysis during NBC’s broadcast of Sprint Cup races next season nothing short of brilliant.
Letarte may not have won a championship for Junior, but he knows more about how to set up a winning race car and what a crew chief is thinking or needs to be thinking than most of his contemporaries.
Crew chiefs of most teams will play some form of musical chairs prior to the 2015 season, except the winning team, of course, although Tony Stewart set the precedent for that when he announced that Darian Grubb would lose his job—championship or not—prior to the season finale in 2011. Grubb and Stewart went on to win the title that year. And…wait for it…Grubb is the crew chief for Denny Hamlin.
We’ve already seen a bit of this going on with the swap of Kurt Busch’s and Danica Patrick’s crew chiefs. That will likely pay off more for Patrick than for Busch, but we’ll have to see.
NASCAR will continue to tweak the cars to make the competition even better, or so they say. We all know the racing is the best it’s ever been, so maybe it needs to give it a rest.
And of course, ESPN bids adieu to broadcasting NASCAR, something it’s done for the past eight years. Some of the faces we’ve found familiar with the ESPN broadcast, Mike Massaro and Jamie Little, will move over to NBC and Fox, respectively, next season. Others such as Ricky Craven and Marty Smith will remain with ESPN to give real credibility to the network's NASCAR coverage.
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The Final Four
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Joey Logano
This has been the best year of Logano’s NASCAR Sprint Cup career. His five wins, 16 top-fives and 22 top-10s with one pole are remarkable considering he was thought to be a throwaway by Joe Gibbs Racing after the 2012 season.
His crew chief that year, when he won just once and had two top-fives? Jason Ratcliff, who has enabled Matt Kenseth, last year’s highest-winning driver with seven wins, to have a similar kind of season this year.
Logano has toned down his “angry young man” persona just enough to keep his cool under pressure, especially now that he’s under the guidance of Todd Gordon.
Now, if he can just keep his head in the game.
Ryan Newman
You’ve got to hand it to this Luke Lambert-led Richard Childress Racing team. They’ve gotten this far pretty much with smoke and mirrors. Newman could be a winless champion when he leaves Homestead, so one does hope that he wins the race, at least.
Newman has been a tough competitor all season, especially in the latter half when his communication with Lambert got on the same page. RCR always builds good cars, and Newman had to figure out how to get the best from them.
He did, and he’s in the big race.
Kevin Harvick
I often believe that if Harvick couldn’t take out his aggression behind the wheel of a race car, he’d be a multi-time UFC champion. Tough as nails and the guy you have to beat nearly every weekend, Harvick’s move to Stewart-Haas Racing has added another 10 years or more to his career, if he chooses to race that long.
His statistics are what you might expect of someone who will race for a championship—four wins, 13 top-fives, 19 top-10s and six poles. His Chevrolet is always one of the two or three fastest cars every weekend.
He’d make a fine champion and a long overdue one at that. Thirteen years of championship misses while at RCR could all be erased on Sunday night.
Denny Hamlin
I wrote about Hamlin earlier. He could be the first NASCAR Sprint Cup champion since (no one can remember, seriously, but everyone thinks it was Richard Petty) who won a championship without competing in every race. Hamlin sat out Fontana when he had metal in his eye.
A Hamlin championship would be big for Toyota, which struggled much of the season to find speed comparable to the Fords and especially the Hendrick-powered Chevrolets (like Harvick’s).
Potential Chase Spoiler: Jeff Gordon
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I’m not trying to pick a fight here, but Jeff Gordon belongs in the Chase field of four. If not for any other reason than he busted his butt every weekend to make this the season.
And it’s not.
I mean, the guy isn’t getting any younger; he’s 43 years old and not likely planning on racing much longer. His back is bad, he’s a gazillionaire and he’s got a great family life with a beautiful former model for a wife. You have to want it.
He and crew-chief extraordinaire Alan Gustafson want to win this final race.
Don’t you think?
And the Champion Is: Kevin Harvick
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Kevin Harvick has been the driver most often named as the “one to beat” for nearly every one of the 35 points races.
And why is that, you suppose?
He’s made some big changes in his life over the past few years, including selling his racing organization to then-team owner Richard Childress, giving up on the dream of owning a team. He and wife Delana started a family that helped him to settle down and mature, and he’s moved to a new race team, Stewart-Haas Racing after 13 frustrating seasons with Childress.
He finished third in the championship, three times (2010, '11, '13). During those seasons, he—and subsequently the team around him—collapsed during the Chase.
That hasn’t happened this time around. In fact, Harvick’s Rodney Childers-led squad has gotten better with each race in the Chase. Remember, Martinsville was not of their doing.
In the end, the driver who will be the most relentless, the toughest to pass and the one whom the others will fear in their rearview mirror the most on Sunday will be the one behind the wheel of the No. 4 Budweiser Chevrolet, Kevin Harvick, who will go on to win the 2014 Sprint Cup championship.
All quotes sourced from official NASCAR, team and manufacturer media releases unless otherwise stated.
Bob Margolis is a member of the National Motorsports Press Association and has covered NASCAR, IndyCar, the NHRA and Sports Cars for more than two decades as a writer, television producer and on-air talent.
On Twitter: @BobMargolis
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