Broncos vs. Rams: Breaking Down Denver's Game Plan
The Denver Broncos wrap up a three-game road trip in Week 11 as they travel to take on the St. Louis Rams. They got back on the winning track by dismantling the Oakland Raiders 41-17 in Week 10, and they’re hoping to continue their winning ways.
Denver discovered another asset in the backfield against the Raiders as second-year pro C.J. Anderson had a breakout performance with 163 all-purpose yards. Anderson’s 51-yard touchdown catch-and-run was the play that sparked the team to victory after they started slow against Oakland.
Broncos head coach John Fox reflected on that big play earlier this week.
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“I think this game’s about momentum and it’s about players making plays. I think that was a play that sparked our football team. It looked like it’s going to be a 2-3-yard gain, but he makes some guys miss, reverses field, picks up some blocks and it turns into a touchdown. [It was] obviously a big play that sparked the football team.”
The Rams are 3-6 so far this season, and they’ve made a change at the quarterback position before the Broncos game. Veteran Shaun Hill is back in the lineup after young quarterback Austin Davis struggled to impress over the last eight weeks as the starter, according to ESPN's Nick Wagoner.
Fox was clear about how this quarterback change would impact the Broncos game plan.
“Nothing. He played the first half of the Minnesota game to open the season. We have plenty of tape on him, preseason, in the past, whatnot. Their offense doesn’t change and they’re a little similar in style.”
Let’s take a look at how the Denver Broncos will attack the St. Louis Rams on both sides of the ball.
When the Broncos Run the Ball
The starting running back for the Broncos is unknown at this time. Ronnie Hillman had been starting for the team since Montee Ball injured his groin in Week 5 against the Arizona Cardinals. In Week 10, Hillman went down with a midfoot sprain.
Without Hillman, the team turned to Anderson as the lead back.
Anderson had a big game against the Raiders, but it’s not clear whether or not that is going to translate to a starting opportunity.
Fox is not tipping his hand when talking about who will be the lead back for the Broncos in Week 11.
“It’s who’s healthy No. 1, first and foremost, evaluating that week to week. Last week, [RB] Montee [Ball] was out there practicing but you just didn’t feel he was quite ready to be up for the game so he was inactive. We went with the other three and we’ll evaluate it again come Wednesday. It was really a matter of each week.” Fox emphasized, “These things take on different personality and different guys are available and they’re on the roster for that reason.”
Ball is back from his groin injury, and he was a full participant in practice on Wednesday this week after being limited all last week (and being inactive for the Raiders game). During the time he missed, Ball trimmed down to his college playing weight of 212 pounds, and he can feel the difference.
“I definitely feel a difference. I’m out there smiling today. My body feels so much lighter, so much better. It’s what I weighed in college. I’m pretty excited about it.”
So Broncos fans (and fantasy players) want to know, is it Anderson or Ball?
The season stats are revealing for both backs:
"Both CJ Anderson and Montee Ball have 172 rushing yds for #Broncos in 2014 - CJ on 30 carries (5.7 ypc), Montee on 55 carries (3.1 ypc)
— Cecil Lammey (@cecillammey) November 11, 2014 "
The truth is that the Broncos are going to use a “hot hand” approach at the running back position. Anderson or Ball may be the starter, but they could lose out on touches if the other guy is looking better with his opportunity. It’s a good problem for the Broncos to have, even though it frustrates fantasy owners.
So far this season, the Rams defense has allowed 124.2 rushing yards per game. However, over the last two weeks they’ve been incredible. The Rams only allowed 28 rushing yards to the Cardinals last week, and they held the San Francisco 49ers to 80 yards on the ground two games ago.
When the Broncos Pass the Ball
Manning only played three quarters in the blowout win over the Raiders last week. This week against the Rams, Manning is going to have to stand up to a ferocious pass rush. The Rams defense started the season slowly, but they’ve compiled 16 sacks (17 is their season total) over the last four games.
Manning can’t explain the Rams' slow start, but he knows they’ve been getting pressure recently.
“I can’t explain that as far as the first few games, but their front has been active all season long in my opinion. They’ve got really good players, a lot of first-round draft choices, guys that were great players in college that have made the transition to the NFL.” Manning exclaimed, “All impact players. So that’s where it starts, probably, for any defense.”
Manning continued, “You’ve got to be able to try to control those guys somehow, and it falls on everybody. It falls on the run game. It falls on receivers getting open on time. It falls on me making quick decisions because it’s an active bunch.”
Quick passes to guys like Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas could do a lot of damage to the Rams on Sunday.
Sanders scored two touchdowns against the Raiders, and he did it by taking the top off the defense with his speed. The Broncos may have to be patient, but there will be some deep shots here and there to Sanders—and he can convert those targets into big plays.
Demaryius Thomas went over 1,000 yards receiving on the season with his 11-catch, 108-yard performance against the Raiders in Week 10. That game marked his sixth straight 100-yard receiving day. There’s no reason to think Thomas won’t pass the century mark again in Week 11.
Manning loves what Thomas can do after the catch.
“He’s an angry runner. He has that ball in his hands and he’s looking to score. He’s a stiff-arm guy. He’s not a slider. He will [avoid contact] every now and then in certain situations when it makes the most sense, but for the most part, he gets that ball in his hands and he’s trying to score.” Manning emphasized, “That’s a real credit to him for using his God-given abilities with the size and speed, but he uses them to his advantage.”
For the fourth game this season, tight end Julius Thomas had two or more receiving touchdowns. He now leads the NFL in touchdown receptions with 12 so far this year. The record for touchdown catches by a tight end in a single season is 17 (Rob Gronkowski, 2011), and Thomas is on pace to best that mark.
The Rams don’t have a strong pass defense. They’ve only picked off four passes this entire season, a mark that is good for next-to-last in the NFL.
Their defense thrives off pressure to help their secondary look better. Even though they’ve been better rushing the passer in recent weeks, getting to Manning will be difficult. Manning is the least sacked quarterback in the league, and he’s only been sacked nine times in 2014.
It goes without saying, but this should be a good week for Manning and the passing game.
When the Rams Run the Ball
The Rams have a clustered backfield with three options to tote the rock. Tre Mason is the electric rookie who has led the team in rushing each week for over a month. Benny Cunningham is a nice change-of-pace back who can convert on third down. Zac Stacy was the starter for most of last year, but injuries and inconsistency have caused him to fall out of favor in 2014.
Mason is a pure energy runner who is incredibly explosive every time he touches the ball. He’s only been active over the last five games this season, but he’s carried the ball 63 times for 270 yards and one touchdown. The rookie isn’t that trusted in pass protection, but he does have seven catches for 38 yards this year.
He’ll likely be the lead back for the Rams again, but we’ll see some form of a rotation at the position—even though Fisher wants one back to emerge.
The next man up is likely Cunningham. He is trusted in pass protection, and that gets him on the field in passing situations. If (when?) the Rams fall behind early, they’ll have to turn to more of a pass-happy game plan. That change in philosophy could include more playing time for Cunningham.
Stacy began this year as the starter after a breakout rookie campaign in 2013. He lost the starting job early this season, and over the last four games he only has 13 carries for 34 yards. This is unlikely to be the week that Stacy bounces back.
Defensive tackle Terrance Knighton feels that with a change at quarterback, we might see more emphasis on running the rock.
“Maybe that is what their coach is trying to do. They are going to do what they do and with a new quarterback in there, it might be a little more emphasis on running the ball, just because he hasn’t been in there.” Knighton concluded, “He’s a veteran quarterback; he’s played at a high level in this league, so we’ll be prepared.”
The Broncos have the best rushing defense in the league. They are tough to move the ball against, and they only allow an average of 67 yards rushing per game. Opponents are forced to abandon the ground game against the Broncos because Denver’s tough to run on, and opponents have to keep up with Manning and the high-powered Broncos offense.
When the Rams Pass the Ball
Hill began the season as the starter for the Rams, but he was injured in the season opener against the Minnesota Vikings and replaced by Austin Davis. When Davis was playing well, the team decided to keep the young quarterback in the lineup. However, with struggles over the last few weeks, Rams head coach Jeff Fisher made the change back to Hill.
Safety Rahim Moore shared his thoughts on the Rams’ change at quarterback.
“There isn’t that much film on him but at the same time he has played. He’s an NFL quarterback that you have to respect no matter what. The hardest thing is you never know what he can do.” Moore continued, “At the same time you still have to prepare and as the game goes on and they make adjustments we’ll make adjustments. They are doing what’s best for their organization to win the game.”
The Rams had an emerging target earlier this season in wide receiver Brian Quick. The third-year player was having a breakout season before a shoulder injury ended his year. Since he was lost for the season, the Rams passing game has looked lost.
Kenny Britt is their best receiver now, and he has incredible natural talent. What he lacks is consistency and effort. These problems have held him back during his entire pro career.
Second-year receivers Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austin both have big-play ability. Bailey is a deep target who can stretch the field, while Austin is the waterbug receiver who can make defenders miss after hauling in catches on shorter routes. Neither one should be able to produce at a high level against the Broncos defense.
Tight end Jared Cook might have the best statistical day of any of the Rams receiving options. Cook is huge, fast and physical after the catch. The Broncos have historically struggled to cover tight ends, and Cooks could end up having a nice day as a relief-valve receiver for Hill.
The Broncos pass defense currently ranks 19th in the NFL with an average of 247.1 yards passing allowed per game. Their 10 interceptions in 2014 ranks seventh in the NFL, while their 24 sacks is good for 10th in the league.
St. Louis' starting left tackle Jake Long was lost for the season, so rookie first-round pick Greg Robinson has stepped into his place. The rookie will have his hands full with DeMarcus Ware on Sunday. Right tackle Joe Barksdale will have trouble slowing down Von Miller on the other side.
It’s looking like a long Sunday for the Rams offense.
Summary
The Broncos want to finish the season as the No. 1 seed in the AFC. They want every playoff team to have to come through Denver on the way to the Super Bowl. In order to insure that spot, they need to put away an inferior team when they face them on the schedule.
St. Louis is certainly an inferior team on both sides of the ball. No win (well, maybe Oakland) is an easy win, but the Broncos should be able to have their way in Week 11.
The Broncos ground game is a bit of a mystery right now, but we’ll get more clues about their direction with that part of their team on Sunday. The Rams aren’t easy to run on, but Denver will try (as they have most every game) to have balance offensively.
Manning and company should be able to move the ball through the air without much resistance. Sanders, Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas are the main assets in the passing game. If the Broncos get any production from guys like Wes Welker or Jacob Tamme, it has to be considered a bonus.
Denver’s pass-rushers should be able to pin their ears back and go after Shaun Hill. That could make for a long day for the veteran quarterback. The Rams won’t get much help from their rushing attack, and they’ll likely have to play “catch up” football earlier than they want to.
The Broncos can finish this three-game road trip 2-1. That is a mark most Broncos fans would take as we head for home in the stretch run of the 2014 regular season.
All quotes and injury/practice observations obtained firsthand. Record/statistical information provided via email from the Denver Broncos unless otherwise noted. Contract and salary-cap information provided by Spotrac.com. Transaction history provided by ProSportsTransactions.com.
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