Ranking the Best MLB Power Pitchers Available in Free Agency, Trade Talks
When we think power and baseball, our thoughts immediately drift to the steroid era, with its larger-than-life sluggers putting up video game-like home run totals.
Make no mistake about it: Baseball is still enjoying the benefits of power, but where it rests has shifted roughly 60 feet and six inches from the batter's box out to the pitcher's mound.
Welcome to the era of the power pitcher.
There's no shortage of power arms available this winter, whether it be via free agency or a trade—perhaps the most impressive grouping of power arms that we've seen in recent memory.
How do we define a power pitcher? For our purposes, we'll set the following guidelines: A pitcher must have logged at least 100 innings in 2014, had an average fastball velocity of at least 90 mph and struck out at least eight batters per nine innings of work.
You'd be surprised at how many pitchers are bringing the heat these days—134 starters met the velocity requirement last year, while only 56 were up to the task when it came to making batters swing and miss.
Of all those pitchers, only 12 met both criteria—and are either free agents or known to be available in a trade this winter. We've already seen one of them, A.J. Burnett, come off the board, as the veteran recently signed a one-year, $8.5 million deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
That leaves us with 11 power arms to rank, and we'll do so while taking age, current contract status (or projected contract status) and recent performance under consideration.
Which power pitcher reigns supreme over the rest of the crowd?
Let's take a look.
11. RHP Justin Masterson, Free Agent
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2014 Power Stats
| 90.3 | 116 | 8.11 |
It was a season to forget for Justin Masterson, who just might be the free-agent pitcher who represents both the biggest risk and, potentially, the biggest reward among this winter's crop of power arms.
Command and control were major issues for the 29-year-old, who was ineffective in both Cleveland (5.51 ERA, 1.66 WHIP) and St. Louis (7.04 ERA, 1.57 WHIP), finishing the season walking nearly five batters per nine innings of work.
The Indians chocked his issues up to a balky knee that gave him problems all year long, while the Cardinals believed that Masterson's problems were mechanical, not physical. While Masterson's struggles continued, it's fair to say that both teams may have been correct in their diagnosis.
Yet he's still relatively young and isn't that far removed from a three-year stretch (2011-13) that saw him pitch to a combined 3.86 ERA and 1.31 WHIP while averaging 205 innings a year and make his first All-Star appearance (2013).
Given his struggles, Masterson isn't going to command a lucrative multiyear pact. A one-year deal limits the risk for the team that signs him—which could be the Indians, according to The Plain Dealer's Paul Hoynes—and gives the veteran starter a chance to re-establish his value with a bounce-back year.
10. RHP Jason Hammel, Free Agent
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2014 Power Stats
| 92.4 | 158 | 8.06 |
The perception of Jason Hammel is that he was absolutely awful upon being traded to Oakland last season, eventually losing his spot in the team's rotation. While that last part is true, Hammel, 32, wasn't completely inept for the A's, pitching to a 4.26 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Those numbers might not be anywhere near elite levels, but they're not awful, either.
Hammel isn't flashy by any means, and his career splits show that he's not the guy a team wants on the hill down the stretch:
| First Half | 134 (109) | 4.23 | 1.35 | 2.9 | 6.8 |
| Second Half | 111 (78) | 5.16 | 1.46 | 3.1 | 6.7 |
Yet, as Hammel's former teammate with the Chicago Cubs, catcher John Baker, tells CSN Chicago's Patrick Mooney, those numbers don't tell the whole story.
"He kind of flies under the radar. (But) comparing him to some of the frontline guys I’ve caught in the past, like Josh Johnson, he’s a guy that when you go out to the field, regardless of who you’re playing against, you feel like he’s going to give you a chance to win the game."
Ultimately, that's all a team needs from a mid- to back-of-the-rotation arm, and it's why, according to Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle, a dozen teams, including the Astros, have reached out to Hammel this offseason.
9. RHP Ian Kennedy, San Diego Padres
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2014 Power Stats
| 91.8 | 207 | 9.27 |
Entering his final year of team control and with a salary that's expected to approach $10 million through arbitration, San Diego is willing to listen to offers on the ace of its pitching staff, Ian Kennedy. Yet that doesn't mean that the Padres are in a rush to deal the soon-to-be 30-year-old.
While he's never been able to replicate the Cy Young Award-worthy numbers that he put up for Arizona in 2011 (21-4, 2.88 ERA, 1.09 WHIP), Kennedy is coming off his fifth consecutive season with at least 180 innings pitched, and three of those years saw him pitch to an ERA under 4.05.
Speaking of which, you'd expect that a fly-ball pitcher like Kennedy would thrive in the spacious confines of a place like Petco Park while struggling in more hitter-friendly venues.
That wasn't the case, as noted by Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune, who believes that Padres pitching coach Darren Balsley deserves much of the credit:
"Kennedy’s ERA was better on the road (3.32) than it was at home (3.93).
The Padres thought all along that “a different voice” might help Kennedy click when he arrived. Among the mechanical changes that Balsley applied to Kennedy: More turn to leg kick, keeping his hip in line with the plate longer and not turning to his slide step out of the stretch quite as often.
The resulting boosted torque added an extra mph hour to Kennedy’s average fastball, which maxed out higher than 95 mph for the first time his career.
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That extra velocity saw Kennedy post career bests in K/9 and strikeouts.
But it's fair to wonder whether he can take the lessons learned in San Diego and apply them elsewhere or if another team's pitching coach might incorporate some tweaks of his own, reducing Kennedy's velocity and, as a result, effectiveness.
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8. RHP Tyson Ross, San Diego Padres
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2014 Power Stats
| 93.4 | 195 | 8.93 |
That I've put 27-year-old Tyson Ross ahead of his teammate, Ian Kennedy, might leave some people scratching their heads. But there are two reasons for Ross' placement on our rankings. First, he's two years younger than Kennedy and under team control through 2018. Kennedy will be a free agent after the 2015 season.
More importantly, however, is the fact that Ross is a pronounced ground-ball pitcher. Opposing batters rarely get the ball in the air against him, much less get enough of a pitch to send the ball screaming into the stands for a home run.
Among qualified starting pitchers, only one—Houston's Dallas Keuchel (63.5 percent)—had a higher ground-ball percentage than Ross (57 percent) did in 2014. When you combine his ability to keep the ball on the ground with his ability to make batters swing and miss, you've got a potentially dominant combination.
7. LHP Francisco Liriano, Free Agent
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2014 Power Stats
| 92.7 | 175 | 9.7 |
Francisco Liriano has been miscast as a true ace—he's really a high-end No. 2 starter, albeit one who comes with concerns.
The 31-year-old southpaw has never thrown more than 200 innings in a season. In fact, he's only tossed more than 165 innings or made at least 30 starts in a single season once, when he logged 191.2 innings for the Minnesota Twins over 31 starts.
Liriano does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground and, when he's on, has proved to be one of the premier strikeout artists in the game. The problem is that he's slightly off nearly as often as he's on, resulting in bloated walk totals, high pitch counts and, as a result, increased work for a team's bullpen.
His numbers with Pittsburgh over the past two seasons are a perfect example of what Liriano brings to the table: a combined 3.20 ERA and 1.26 WHIP to go along with a 9.4 K/9, numbers that also come with a 4.0 BB/9 and an average of only 162 innings a year.
Still, the talent is there, and if a team is able to get his control, well, under control, the upside is there for Liriano to be one of the relative bargains of the winter, especially compared to what the higher-profile free-agent pitchers are going to command.
6. RHP Ervin Santana, Free Agent
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2014 Power Stats
| 92.3 | 179 | 8.22 |
One of the more durable arms available, Ervin Santana has averaged 207 innings and 32 starts a season since 2010, pitching to a combined 3.88 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.
His strikeout rate jumped significantly from 2013 with Kansas City (6.9 K/9) to last season with Atlanta (8.2 K/9), only the second time in his career that he's cracked the 8.0 K/9 plateau. The other? His lone All-Star campaign in 2008 with the Angels, when he finished sixth in the voting for the AL Cy Young Award, one of two Los Angeles pitchers (along with Francisco Rodriguez) to garner support.
While it's fair to call Santana a borderline power pitcher given that fact, his durability and consistency put him ahead of some of the more consistent strikeout artists that we've looked at already.
CBS Sports' Jon Heyman says that there's mutual interest between Santana and the Royals about a potential reunion, while Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports that the Marlins have Santana on their radar as well.
5. RHP Jeff Samardzija, Oakland Athletics
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2014 Power Stats
| 94.6 | 202 | 8.28 |
Oakland's chances of being able to re-sign Jeff Samardzija after the 2015 season figure to be slim, so it makes sense that the A's are willing to listen to offers for the soon-to-be 30-year-old starter, as Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal reports they are, despite the fact that they paid dearly to acquire him only a few months ago.
That he spent the first four years of his career as a reliever makes the fact that Samardzija is about to turn 30 less of an issue than it is for other power arms, considering that he doesn't have the wear and tear on his right arm that his counterparts do.
While he's never posted a winning record as a full-time starter, Samardzija left no doubt as to whether he could be successful against American League lineups upon his arrival in Oakland, pitching to a 3.14 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over 16 starts.
He's coming off consecutive seasons in which he's logged at least 210 innings and, over the past three years, has pitched to an outstanding 2.6 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9. Command and control are less of an issue for Samardzija than some of the other power arms available this winter, which only adds to his appeal.
4. LHP Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies
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2014 Power Stats
| 92.1 | 198 | 8.71 |
If you want to talk about facts that are too bizarre to not be true, consider this: Despite being one of baseball's premier left-handed starters for nearly a decade, Cole Hamels has made only three All-Star appearances—none since 2012.
That would lead a less informed baseball fan to assume that Hamels' game must have fallen apart, but that's hardly the case. Among pitchers who have made at least 60 starts since the start of the 2013 season, Hamels ranks eighth in strikeouts (400), ninth in ERA (3.05) and 10th in innings pitched (424.2).
Five consecutive seasons with at least 200 innings pitched—four of which came with an ERA below 3.10—to go along with a BB/9 rate of 2.2 and a K/9 rate of 8.6 make him one of baseball's most consistent performers.
It also makes the money left on his deal—$90 million over the next four years, which doesn't include his 2019 option that's worth at least $20 million—far easier for a team to live with. His no-trade clause, which is significant, seems to be less of an obstacle than previously thought, with USA Today's Bob Nightengale reporting that Hamels would prefer to be traded this winter than stick with a rebuilding Philadelphia club.
3. LHP Jon Lester, Free Agent
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2014 Power Stats
| 91.5 | 220 | 9.01 |
He's proved that he can succeed in a big market like Boston or a small market like Oakland. He's proved that he can be successful in the postseason, with a 2.57 ERA and 1.07 WHIP across 16 playoff appearances (14 starts). And perhaps the most impressive of his accomplishments to date: He's proved that he can beat cancer as well.
There's not much that Jon Lester can't do, and he's one of the few available power arms who comes with no questions. What you see is what you get, and what you get is an ace capable of dominating the opposition whenever he steps on the mound.
He's eclipsed the 200-inning plateau six times in the past seven years and is coming off the best season of his career, pitching to a 2.46 ERA and 1.10 WHIP while striking out 220 batters in 32 starts with Boston and Oakland.
While WEEI.com's Rob Bradford reports that six teams are interested in signing Lester, a return to Boston, where he spent the bulk of his career, could be in the works, according to ESPN Boston's Gordon Edes.
2. RHP Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals
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2014 Power Stats
| 93.7 | 182 | 8.20 |
If you wanted to argue that Jordan Zimmermann belongs in the top spot on our list, I wouldn't put up much of a fight—it's that close between the 28-year-old and his slightly older counterpart who comes in at No. 1.
Zimmermann has surpassed the far-more-touted Stephen Strasburg as the ace of Washington's pitching staff, so it was somewhat surprising to see his name pop up in trade rumors earlier this offseason.
Under team control through 2016, the 28-year-old has pitched at a Cy Young Award-caliber level since 2012, going 45-22 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.11 WHIP for the Nationals. While CSN Washington's Mark Zuckerman says that the Nationals aren't likely to move him, the possibility can't be completely ruled out.
Zimmerman doesn't walk batters, posting an MLB-best 1.3 BB/9 among qualified starters in 2014. To put that in it's proper perspective, he issued a free pass to only 29 of the 800 batters that he faced last year.
That's impressive.
1. Max Scherzer, Free Agent
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2014 Power Stats
| 92.8 | 252 | 10.29 |
Max Scherzer comes in as the premier power pitcher available this winter because, quite frankly, his numbers over the past two years read like something out of a video game.
Over his past 65 regular-season starts, Scherzer has gone 39-8 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, striking out 492 batters over 434.2 innings of work. If we go back three years, those numbers are even more impressive: 55-15 with a 3.24 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 723 strikeouts over 622.1 innings spanning 97 starts.
He's going to cost a small fortune to sign this winter, but the team that does sign him is getting a legitimate ace, one who's still in the prime of his career at the age of 30 and who figures to remain highly effective through the bulk of his new deal.
Unless otherwise linked/noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference. All power statistics courtesy of FanGraphs. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts.
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