Louis Van Gaal vs. David Moyes: Are Manchester United Really Any Better?

Louis van Gaal’s inconsistent start at Manchester United has led people to ask whether the Dutchman has made any significant improvement over his predecessor.

In truth, the answer, from the perspective of this United fan, is that improvements are clear in both style and output.

The basic headline fact, that David Moyes had four more points by this stage of the season than Van Gaal has, is undeniable. However, to consider that fact without context and declare that Moyes is thus a better manager, or more suited to manage United than Van Gaal, is to miss crucial information.

There is a certain inherent irony in comparing the work of a man who has managed some of the world’s biggest sides to the world’s biggest trophies and Moyes, whose personal trophy cabinet is distinctly lacking in shine. Van Gaal’s CV proves him over and over to be one of the modern game’s great coaches.

Jon Super/Associated Press

Moyes’ certainly does not.

There is also an arbitrary quality to making the comparison now. If Van Gaal’s United finish the season on fewer points than Moyes’ did, then serious questions need to be asked, but for now, all that can be done is to look at whether the seeds of improvement have been sown.

National newspapers have jumped gleefully on Van Gaal’s slow start with, for example, the Express claiming that statistics offer "proof that axed Manchester United boss David Moyes is better than Louis van Gaal." 

As any statistician could tell the Express’ headline writers, correlation does not necessarily indicate causation. Among the mitigating factors, Moyes took over the champions of English football. Van Gaal took over a side who finished the previous season in seventh place.

Also, there are key indicators that things look considerably rosier than they may at first glance for Van Gaal’s United. His poor start has been hugely affected by injuries. Moyes was able to keep three of his back four the same for his opening five fixtures, something Van Gaal has not been even close to doing.

Richard Heathcote/Getty Images

With a more stable pool of players to pick from, Van Gaal may be in a better position than he is now. The Dutchman is not blameless in this matter, as following the loss of Rio Ferdinand, Nemanja Vidic and Patrice Evra, he was left with a selection of defenders with extensive histories of injury problems.

Although Marcos Rojo and Luke Shaw were brought in to beef up United’s defensive resources, another central defender would have been an excellent addition during the transfer window.

However, it seems unlikely that many more transfer windows will pass without that need being addressed, given how robustly United strengthened the squad as a whole in the summer.

The subject of transfer windows raises another point in Van Gaal’s favour. Although it is not as simple as it may appear at first glance, Van Gaal has been massively more successful than Moyes was in attracting players who can improve United. Moyes brought in two players during his time in charge, one for each transfer window in which he was involved.

Michael Regan/Getty Images

Van Gaal has added six, including Angel Di Maria, a player whose output is among the most impressive in the world (as I have previously covered, here).

Although Moyes gained more points from the beginning of the season to mid-November than Van Gaal, he was less successful in the period following the closure of the transfer window than the Dutchman.

At the time of writing, United have played eight games since 1 September, from which they have earned 14 points, with a goal difference of plus-4. Moyes won a point less from the games from September onwards, with a goal difference of plus-1.

This relatively minor point gains greater significance because of its context. The first transfer window marks a manager’s opportunity to change the identity of a side. The "Van Gaal era" arguably began in earnest on September 1, 2014.

Another area which has seen an improvement is United’s ability to score goals from open play. Under Moyes, following the opening-day victory over Swansea, United did not score a goal from open play until October.

Scott Heppell/Associated Press

This has certainly not been an issue under Van Gaal, whose side have rarely struggled to create chances. Even in the slightly laboured 1-0 victory over Crystal Palace on Saturday, United made 18 attempts on Palace’s goal from open play, per WhoScored.com.

There have been games under Van Gaal in which United have played some of their most attractive football for a long time. The 4-0 demolition of Queens Park Rangers in September and the first half of the subsequent game against Leicester City showed glimpses of what might be to come under the Dutchman.

It is hard to draw to mind a comparable performance under Moyes, even against opposition of a similar level.

Some of this is, of course, down to the level of investment United have made in the squad. However, perhaps some of it is also down to the manager.

That level of performance has not yet proved sustainable under Van Gaal, but again injuries and suspensions have been among the defining characteristics of United’s season so far, in a manner in which they simply were not during Moyes’ initial time in charge.

Another key improvement is that United have rarely looked overawed in any game. Both managers faced Manchester City at the Etihad in their first months in charge, and neither was able to get anything out of the encounter.

Clive Rose/Getty Images

However, the manner of the defeat this season was unrecognisable from the lacklustre capitulation that United offered as City demolished Moyes’ side 4-1. A battling 1-0 defeat is certainly no moral victory, but United’s performance in the derby under Van Gaal at least offered a clear hope that United were not overawed by their local rivals.

It will be a surprise if this season’s return fixture sees a repeat of the 3-0 defeat United suffered at Old Trafford last time out.

The final area which has seen distinct and obvious improvement is in Van Gaal’s management of public relations.

Moyes’ infamous proclamation of United’s desire to "make it as hard and as difficult" for Newcastle United’s visit to Old Trafford as possible (h/t Here is the City), and his revealing suggestion that United "try and aspire" to "the sort of standard and level" of Manchester City, per Sky Sports, were yet to come, but there were already fears that Moyes’ public presentation was at odds with the requirements of the role.   

Although Van Gaal may have described himself as "stupid" to suggest that he should be judged in three months, per BBC Sport, and recently suggested his process will take three years to complete, per Sky Sports, for the most part it has been a pleasure to listen to him talk about his plans for the club.

He carries himself with the bearing of a manager who is at ease with the role he finds himself in, something which, from my subjective perspective, Moyes rarely seemed to do.

Alex Livesey/Getty Images

United’s start may have been faltering, but unlike under Moyes, there seems to be plenty of cause for hope. More goals from open play. A squad that has been refreshed and to which more is presumably to be added. A manager with a CV befitting the role. An injury-hit squad which acts as mitigation for much of what has gone wrong so far. 

Manchester United are certainly better off than they were this time last year.