What Stan Wawrinka Can Do to Top Novak Djokovic at the ATP World Tour Finals

Stan Wawrinka will be looking to pass the toughest test in tennis again when he renews his rivalry with Novak Djokovic at the ATP World Tour Finals.

The duo clash in Wednesday’s evening match at the O2 Arena with a semi-final spot at stake. The Australian Open champion is eyeing a repeat of the pair's last encounter, when he ended the Serb’s dominance at Melbourne Park.

However, Djokovic will not only be hungry for revenge, but also has his sights set on the season-ending world No. 1 ranking, something he will achieve by winning all three of his round-robin matches.

The Serb’s dominance over the ATP Tour is also at its most commanding indoors, extending his winning run to 28 matches with Monday’s 6-1, 6-1 victory over Marin Cilic.

Wawrinka was equally impressive in prevailing by the same scoreline over Tomas Berdych and will secure a semi-final berth if he prevails on Wednesday night.

The Swiss No. 2 also boasts the best record against the ATP Tour’s top 10 this year, going 7-1 with Monday’s triumph. 

However, as reported on the ATP World Tour Finals website, he admitted in his post-most press conference on Monday that such stats do not paint the full picture:

"

I had, what, six win against top 10 in the first three months of the year, then I never played them again because I lose early in the tournament, so it was a tough six months after (smiling). ... When I feel good on the court, I'm ready to beat everybody. It's never easy, but you have to fight for it. ... So the confidence is there. I'm feeling great mentally. That's maybe one of the reason.

"

The 29-year-old seemingly indicated he was destined for a great season with his victory in Monte Carlo, a first Masters crown, only for inconsistency to blight his campaign.

A solitary win in four tournaments since a quarter-final run at the U.S. Open suggested that Wawrinka was struggling to raise himself for the lower-tier tournaments.

Indeed, his most impressive performances in a largely one-sided rivalry with Djokovic have come in the majors, being edged in epics at Melbourne Park and Flushing Meadows in 2013 before ending a 14-match losing streak at the start in Australia.

According to the Australian Open IBM Slamtracker, Wawrinka served 17 aces and five doubles faults compared to Djokovic’s more conservative five and one in that win.

He also hit 51 winners, six more than the soon to be former reigning champion, while they were tied on 60 unforced errors apiece.

Such aggression will be vital for Wawrinka against a man whom the Daily Mail’s Stuart Fraser considers “the best returner in the sport.”

While indoors was once considered to be conducive to attacking tennis, the counterpunching Serb, as reported by Bloomberg, ominously insisted that his defensive game is enhanced by the environment. "I do feel very comfortable playing, returning, serving in these conditions," Djokovic said.

The ATP Tour's match stats tell us the world No. 1’s ability to win 48 percent of points on big-serving Cilic’s first serve and a remarkable 76 percent on his second certainly backs that up.

Wawrinka’s attacking game helped him win 72 percent of points on first serve in Melbourne, compared to just 61 when the pair met at the World Tour Finals last year, when the Serb prevailed 6-3, 6-3.

He also won 50 percent on second serve, 11 percent higher than at the O2 Arena when only 54 percent of first serves were made, something which equates to terminal against Djokovic.

Statistically, Wawrinka will need to dominate on serve again, make more winners than the Serb and, by hitting with depth, power and accuracy, ensure that he is competitive in the unforced-error bracket.

All this will come down to having the right “feeling” on court and reigniting the belief that he can find a way through Djokovic’s seemingly impenetrable defence.