NFL Playoff Picture: Analyzing the Latest Scenarios for Week 12

Things have a way of changing quickly in the National Football League.

There are only six weeks remaining in the regular season, and plenty of teams are still making plans to be in the playoffs.

We're back with some analysis of the current playoff picture, along with predictions of how each conference's playoff race will shake out. We will also share some thoughts on the clubs that may have a say on the 12-team field, even if they are not likely to be headed to the 2014 postseason themselves.

Once again, we'll take a weekly look at the top seeds in each conference, other teams still in the playoff hunt, the key games that could affect the postseason picture and more. We also have our own current playoff seeding odds for both the NFC and AFC, and some of those thoughts may surprise you.

So here’s a glance at where we stand when it comes to the NFL playoff field heading into Week 12. Who knows what the postseason picture will look like one week from now?

Current AFC Playoff Seeding

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AFC No. 1 Seed: New England Patriots (8-2)

Bill Belichick’s team has now won six consecutive games (by a combined score of 243-128), and in their last two outings, they’ve simply crushed the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts, the latter on Sunday night on the road. Tom Brady’s offense has now found a new weapon in running back Jonas Gray, who roughed up Chuck Pagano’s club for 201 yards rushing and four touchdowns this weekend.

This Sunday, the defensively tough Detroit Lions arrive in New England. Can Brady and his compatriots roll up points against Ndamukong Suh and company?

AFC No. 2 Seed: Denver Broncos (7-3)

What exactly is going on with the defending AFC champions as of late?

For the second time in three weeks, the Broncos lost a football game. For the third consecutive contest, veteran quarterback Peyton Manning has thrown a pair of interceptions. In his last three outings, the prolific passer has thrown for eight scores and has been picked off six times.

Denver hosts the Miami Dolphins this Sunday, and John Fox has to hope his injury-plagued ground game makes a reappearance soon.

AFC No. 3 Seed: Cincinnati Bengals (6-3-1)

A little over a week after quarterback Andy Dalton looked lost at home against the Cleveland Browns, the much-maligned performer responded with three touchdown passes and zero interceptions in a comfortable 27-10 win over the host New Orleans Saints.

The defending AFC North champions are back atop their division, but they have a tricky game this week against the Houston Texans at Reliant Stadium.

AFC No. 4 Seed: Indianapolis Colts (6-4)

It’s been quite the stretch for the Colts, who have surrendered 51, 24 and 42 points over the last three games, respectively, and lost two of those contests to the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots. All this after Chuck Pagano’s supposedly improved defense shut out the visiting Cincinnati Bengals, 27-0, in Week 7.

Andrew Luck continues his hot play, but now the team must deal with the loss of running back Ahmad Bradshaw, who has a fractured fibula. The Colts placed him on injured reserve Tuesday, according to ESPN.com's Mike Wells, ending his season.

AFC No. 5 Seed: Kansas City Chiefs (7-3)

Did Andy Reid’s club really lose its first two games this season?

It’s hard to believe, considering the way the Chiefs have played ever since. The club has won five straight and seven out of eight, the latest an impressive 24-20 triumph over the Seattle Seahawks.

It’s a short week for the Chiefs as they head to Oakland to play the winless Raiders on Thursday night. Does Tony Sparano’s club have any answers for running back Jamaal Charles?

AFC No. 6 Seed: Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4)

Mike Tomlin’s club heads into its bye week fresh off a hard-earned 27-24 win over the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football.

The Steelers opened up a quick 10-0 lead, fell behind 24-13 and then rallied for 14 unanswered points for the victory. Tomlin’s team got a huge outing from second-year running back Le’Veon Bell, who carried 33 times for a career-high 204 yards and a score in the three-point win.

Pittsburgh has won four of its last five games following its up-and-down 3-3 start this season. When the Steelers return from their bye, they host the New Orleans Saints.

Current NFC Playoff Seeding

NFC No. 1 Seed: Arizona Cardinals (9-1)

Bruce Arians’ spirited team continues to prove any remaining doubters wrong. Drew Stanton, who stepped in as the starting quarterback this past week following Carson Palmer's season-ending ACL tear, tossed a pair of early touchdown passes, while the Arizona defense outshone the Detroit Lions’ top-ranked unit in a 14-6 win.

Stanton did throw two interceptions in the victory, but this Cardinals club has still only committed just nine turnovers in 10 games this season.

NFC No. 2 Seed: Detroit Lions (7-3)

In a battle of division leaders, Jim Caldwell’s club came up a bit short at Arizona, 14-6. Detroit gave up a pair of first-quarter touchdown passes and shut out the Cardinals the rest of the game, but the Lions failed to score in the second half as well.

Still, this is a resilient team that has been steady on defense all season and has played well late in games. Detroit has allowed the fewest points per game in the league and has not given up a fourth-quarter touchdown in five consecutive contests.

NFC No. 3 Seed: Philadelphia Eagles (7-3)

So what happened?

Six days after the Birds rolled to a resounding 45-21 win over the visiting Carolina Panthers, the city that made cheesesteaks famous was no match for the team from the state that made cheese a food group.

Green Bay jumped out to a 17-0 first-quarter lead and a 30-6 halftime advantage on its way to a dominating 53-20 victory.

“I think the game got out of hand real early, so we became a little bit one-dimensional,” Eagles head coach Chip Kelly told reporters after the game. “We moved the ball, we just didn't execute…”

A lot of that ball movement came via quarterback Mark Sanchez, who turned over the ball four times in the 33-point setback. The Eagles have now committed a league-high 25 turnovers this season, six more than all of 2013.

NFC No. 4 Seed: Atlanta Falcons (4-6)

You have to look at the positives with Atlanta. The Falcons have not only equaled last season’s disappointing win total, but all four of their victories have come within the division.

That’s quite a turnaround for Mike Smith's club, considering Atlanta was a combined 4-8 against its NFC South rivals over the previous two seasons.

An even more intriguing figure is one—as in first place in the NFC South. For now, the Week 1 overtime victory over the New Orleans Saints is the tiebreaker. The Falcons travel to the Superdome in Week 16, but before that, they have back-to-back home games with the Cleveland Browns and Cardinals the next two Sundays.

NFC No. 5 Seed: Green Bay Packers (7-3)

When the Green Bay Packers have lost this season, they have really lost. All three of their setbacks in 2014 have come by double digits, including a pair of 20-plus point defeats at the hands of the Seattle Seahawks (36-16) and New Orleans Saints (44-23).

But when they win, oh boy!

Over the last two weeks, Mike McCarthy’s club has totaled a combined 108 points in wins over the Chicago Bears (55-14) and Philadelphia Eagles (53-20). The Packers lead the NFL in scoring, averaging 33 points per contest. It’s going to be an interesting battle with the Detroit Lions for the NFC North title, as the two clubs square off Week 17 in Green Bay in what could be a division-deciding contest.

NFC No. 6 Seed: Dallas Cowboys (7-3)

Jason Garrett’s club was off this past week following its win in London over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Cowboys play four of their final six games away from home but are also 4-0 on the road this season.

Quarterback Tony Romo looked pretty spry in the victory over Jacksonville, and running back DeMarco Murray has now run for 100-plus yards in nine out of 10 games this season. Next up is a Sunday night rematch with the New York Giants, who Dallas beat at home in Week 7, 31-21.

Teams on the Bubble

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AFC

Miami Dolphins (6-4)

Joe Philbin’s team is now 5-2 in its last seven games thanks to a Thursday night win over the Buffalo Bills in South Florida. It raised Miami’s record in the division to 2-1, and the Dolphins’ defensive unit was the key, keeping the Bills out of the end zone all evening.

Philbin’s club has allowed only 18 points per game this season and has given up only 18 offensive touchdowns. Hence, it only makes sense that the Dolphins' next game is at Denver, where they’ll face No. 18, Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning.

San Diego Chargers (6-4)

Mike McCoy’s club just hasn’t looked right for the last five games. San Diego owns a 2-3 record in that stretch, but both of those wins were narrow escapes against the winless Oakland Raiders.

The Chargers’ final six games include home dates with the Rams, Patriots and Broncos and visits to Baltimore, San Francisco and Kansas City.

Good luck.

Baltimore Ravens (6-4)

The Ravens were off this past week, still savoring a 21-7 victory over the Tennessee Titans and snapping a brief two-game losing streak. The running game continues to be a positive, and the defense is evolving into a solid unit. Next Monday night, John Harbaugh’s club has a date with the New Orleans Saints at the Superdome, a place that holds some excellent recent memories for the franchise.

Cleveland Browns (6-4)

Mike Pettine’s team came up a little flat on Sunday against the determined Texans, who exploited the Cleveland defense for 213 yards rushing—156 of those yards by rookie running back Alfred Blue. And Browns quarterback Brian Hoyer had more incompletions (30) than completions (20) on Sunday. Pettine’s club closes the season with four of its last six games away from home, although the return this week of All-Pro wide receiver Josh Gordon could breathe some life into the club's playoff hopes. 

Houston Texans (5-5)

New starting quarterback Ryan Mallett, rookie running back Alfred Blue and (of course) defensive end J.J. Watt paved the way for a 23-7 win at Cleveland on Sunday.

The Texans are now just one game behind the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South, own a 4-2 conference record and still have four more games vs. divisional foes this season.

Buffalo Bills (5-5)

The Bills have lost both of their games since returning from their bye week, scoring a combined 22 points in setbacks to the Chiefs and Dolphins. While the offense has indeed struggled, Buffalo’s defensive unit has started to show some cracks when it comes to stopping the run. Jim Schwartz’s unit has allowed at least 125 yards on the ground each of the last four games after holding each of its first six opponents to fewer than 100 yards rushing.

NFC

San Francisco 49ers (6-4)

It was somewhat ugly on Sunday, and the Niners did their best to keep the Giants in the game. But the bottom line was a defensive unit that held New York to 65 yards rushing and picked off Eli Manning five times in a 16-10 win. Deja vu? The 49ers were 6-4 after 10 games last season.

Seattle Seahawks (6-4)

The defending Super Bowl champions continue to have their ups and downs, especially on the defensive side of the football. Pete Carroll’s club has allowed 353 yards rushing in its six wins while giving up 555 yards on the ground in four losses this season. The Seahawks face both the Cardinals and the 49ers twice in the next five weeks.

New Orleans Saints (4-6)

Defensive issues continue to haunt this club, as the Saints have now dropped consecutive games at the Superdome. On Sunday, they gave up 405 total yards in a surprising 27-10 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. Drew Brees and company didn’t score a touchdown until the fourth quarter against Marvin Lewis’ team.

Teams Out of Contention

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As we mentioned last week, any team with eight or more losses is playing for 2015.

Of course, that excludes all four teams in the woeful NFC South, where the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints sit tied atop the division with 4-6 records and the Carolina Panthers (3-7-1) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8) are not too far behind.

A total of 10 teams in the AFC boast winning records, and both the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans have 5-5 marks. That leaves the winless Oakland Raiders (0-10), Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9), New York Jets (2-8) and Tennessee Titans (2-8) as the only clubs in the conference with losing marks.

The Jets are more than capable of playing spoiler the remainder of the season. Four of their last six games will be played within the division, including home tilts with the Miami Dolphins (Week 13) and New England Patriots (Week 16).

Besides the Saints, there are three other teams in the NFC with 4-6 records. The St. Louis Rams still find themselves five games behind the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC West and have already played four games within the division. Still, over the last three weeks, Jeff Fisher’s club has knocked off the San Francisco 49ers and Denver Broncos and still has games with the playoff-hopeful San Diego Chargers, Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks. Call them a super sleeper.

As for the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings, they both find themselves with losing records within the division and are each three games out of first place in the NFC North. While you can never say never in this league, they have dug themselves holes that may be too deep to emerge from.

AFC Seeding Odds

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AFC No. 1 Seed

Best Odds: New England Patriots

Bill Belichick’s team closes the season with three straight AFC East rivals, including home games with both the Dolphins and the Bills. The team has won six straight and is showing no signs of slowing down, although the Patriots’ next three opponents are the Lions, the Packers and the Chargers—the latter two contests on the road.

Long Shot: Pittsburgh Steelers

Mike Tomlin’s team now owns a 7-4 record, sits in second place in the AFC North and has the upcoming week off. But this has arguably been the most inconsistent playoff contender of the bunch, losing to the Jets and rallying to beat the struggling Tennessee Titans on Monday night.

Prediction: Patriots

AFC No. 2 Seed

Best Odds: Denver Broncos

John Fox’s team has dropped two of its last three games, which has the Broncos suddenly tied with Kansas City for the AFC West lead. Denver now finds itself a game behind the New England Patriots for the best record in the conference, and the Pats hold the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage. The Broncos play two of their next three games at home, but those contests sandwich a Sunday night trip to Arrowhead Stadium.

Long Shot: Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck has thrown for 300 or more yards in eight straight games and nine out of 10 contests this season. But the Colts are also allowing 25.3 yards per game, struggled badly on defense in recent losses to the Steelers and Patriots and have already lost to both Denver and New England this season.

Prediction: Broncos

AFC No. 3 Seed

Best Odds: Pittsburgh Steelers

It’s been a struggle, but the Steelers have put themselves in a nice position as they prepare to sit for a week. Mike Tomlin’s team owns a 6-3 conference record, which includes a win over the Colts. Pittsburgh faces the Bengals twice in the final four weeks of the season, including at Pittsburgh in Week 17. And the team will get back more than a handful of defensive starters after its down time.

Long Shot: Cleveland Browns

Mike Pettine’s club owns just a 4-4 record within the conference following Sunday’s 23-7 home loss to the Houston Texans. The Browns are also just 2-2 vs. their divisional rivals this season and will travel to Baltimore for their season finale. This is an improved team, but Cleveland still needs some help when it comes to reaching the playoffs.

Prediction: Steelers

AFC No. 4 Seed

Best Odds: Indianapolis Colts

Chuck Pagano’s team owns just a one-game lead over the Houston Texans in the AFC South and hosts the Jacksonville Jaguars this week . The Colts have won 10 straight games within the division, but their defense makes them very vulnerable. Still, they’re expected to hold off Bill O’Brien’s pesky team, although the Jags are suddenly looking a lot trickier these days.

Long Shot: Miami Dolphins

While the expectation is that the Patriots will capture a sixth straight AFC East title, stranger things have happened. The Dolphins sit two games out of the division lead but already have a win over New England under their chinstraps this season. Miami’s defense continues to impress. Now all Joe Philbin’s team needs is a little help from around the league.

Prediction: Colts

AFC No. 5 Seed

Best Odds: Kansas City Chiefs

Could the Chiefs dethrone the Broncos as AFC West champions this season? Frank Schwab of Yahoo Sports certainly believes it can happen. As Schwab explains, Kansas City has the winning formula going these days in terms of defense and the ground game.

But can they defeat the Broncos, a team they haven’t beaten since Peyton Manning became the quarterback in 2012? The streak is five straight losses, including a 24-17 setback at Denver back in Week 2. The rematch takes place in less than two weeks and it will come on a Sunday night at Arrowhead Stadium.

Before and after that, the Chiefs must take care of business, starting with a trip to Oakland this Thursday night.

Long Shot: San Diego Chargers

Yes, they are just one game behind both the Broncos and Chiefs in the AFC West, but Mike McCoy’s team has not played well for the last month or so. After a visit from the surging Rams this Sunday, the Chargers’ last five games are against teams that are all at least two games above .500.

Prediction: Chiefs

AFC No. 6 Seed

Best Odds: Miami Dolphins

The Miami defense has emerged as one of the league's most stout units, and at 6-4, the Dolphins are starting to look the part of a playoff team. Joe Philbin’s club still has three games to play within the division, but it also has tilts at Denver and home with the Ravens, giving the team a chance to improve on its 5-2 conference record. Given their Week 1 victory over the Patriots, Miami is far from out of the AFC East race this season.

Long Shot: Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have experience on their side, having reached the playoffs each of the last three seasons. But who can predict a team that loses at home by 21 points to the Cleveland Browns and, 10 days later, handles the Saints at the Superdome? The two games with the Steelers in the final four weeks will tell us plenty.

Prediction: Dolphins

NFC Seeding Odds

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NFC No. 1 Seed

Best Odds: Arizona Cardinals

The first-place Cardinals still own an NFL-best 9-1 record, have at least a two-game lead over every other team in the conference and have won six straight contests. They still have two games with the Seattle Seahawks, starting this week in the Pacific Northwest, and a rematch with the 49ers in San Francisco. But Bruce Arians’ club is a perfect 7-0 vs. the NFC this season, including wins over the Eagles, Cowboys and Lions.

Long Shot: Dallas Cowboys

It bears watching how the Cowboys look after their bye week, one that should have provided Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray with plenty of recovery time. Losses in the conference to the 49ers, Redskins and Cardinals could come back to haunt the team in terms of grabbing the top seed. Dallas plays four of its final six games on the road, but Jason Garrett’s club is 4-0 away from home this season.

Prediction: Cardinals

NFC No. 2 Seed

Best Odds: Green Bay Packers

Far from perfect, especially on defense, Mike McCarthy’s club has scored more points in five home games this season than the division-rival Bears, Lions and Vikings have totaled in 10 games in 2014. There’s that loss to the Lions back in September, but in Week 17, Aaron Rodgers and company get the Men from Motown at Lambeau Field—where the Lions haven’t won since 1991.

Long Shot: San Francisco 49ers

A year ago at this time, the Niners were 6-4 before going on a long winning streak and not losing another game until the NFC title tilt at Seattle. Despite two straight wins, all does not seem well with Jim Harbaugh’s club, which still has a pair of games against the Seattle Seahawks remaining this season and a rematch with the Cardinals in Week 17.

Prediction: Packers

NFC No. 3 Seed

Best Odds: Dallas Cowboys

Jason Garrett’s club was off last week, but it likely couldn’t help but notice how the Packers pushed around the Philadelphia Eagles’ supposedly improved defense last week at Lambeau Field. The Cowboys offensive line may have the final say on who wins the NFC East, a feat Dallas hasn’t managed since 2009.

Long Shot: Atlanta Falcons

It would be quite the story, and it would take a crazy set of circumstances for the Falcons to pull it off. But other than the Cardinals, every team in the NFC has at least three losses. Mike Smith’s team has won two straight games, both on the road, and now finishes with four of the last six at the Georgia Dome.

Prediction: Cowboys

NFC No. 4 Seed

Best Odds: Atlanta Falcons

Mike Smith’s team has suddenly won two straight games and, more importantly, the Falcons are a perfect 4-0 within the division. They still have a home tilt with the Panthers and travel to New Orleans (where they never seem to win) in Week 16. Are Matt Ryan and company about to get on a roll of sorts?

Long Shot: Carolina Panthers

The defending NFC South champions have won just one game following their 2-0 start and have looked dismal on offense. However, the Falcons and Saints are sitting with six losses, and the Panthers (off this week) have seven. It would take a dramatic reversal of recent fortunes, but perhaps the Carolina defense is ready for a strong stretch run.

Prediction: Saints

NFC No. 5 Seed

Best Odds: Seattle Seahawks

The defending Super Bowl champions are now a full three games behind the Cardinals in the NFC West but host Bruce Arians’ surprising team this week. If you are Pete Carroll, you have to have big concerns about a defensive unit that has been shaky against the run and have had a tough time covering tight ends. Still, these are the defending Super Bowl champions until dethroned.

However, Steven Ruiz of USA Today reminds us that as things currently stand, Seattle would be out of the playoffs, and their remaining slate is the toughest in the league.

Of course, there is one very big footnote here. The season doesn’t end today and Carroll’s club still has five games remaining vs. their NFC West rivals. And that’s always the flaw with the “if the season ended today” scenario in this or any other sport.

Long Shot: Philadelphia Eagles

One week after looking terrific against the Carolina Panthers defense, Eagles quarterback Mark Sanchez turned over the football four times at Lambeau Field. Philadelphia’s defense has been showing cracks as well. The Birds have four games remaining vs. their NFC East rivals, three of those on the road, but this is a team with a lot of firepower in all aspects.

Prediction: Eagles

NFC No. 6 Seed

Best Odds: Detroit Lions

In recent seasons, this has been a team known for its failures to perform down the stretch. A year ago, the Lions opened at 6-3, then proceeded to lose six of its final seven games. Detroit’s defense is the league’s best these days, but is it good enough to be the difference in road games vs. the Patriots (this Sunday) and Packers (Week 17)?

Long Shot: Seattle Seahawks

This is a team that knows how to win. But the Seahawks may have to win five of their final six games in order to get a chance to defend their Super Bowl title. That slate includes a pair of contests with the Cardinals and 49ers and a road trip to Philadelphia, as well as a rematch with a Rams team that Pete Carroll’s club lost to earlier this season.

Prediction: Lions

Week 12 Games with Biggest Playoff Implications

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Arizona (9-1) at Seattle (6-4)

The Cardinals defeated the Seahawks last season in the Pacific Northwest despite four interceptions from quarterback Carson Palmer. Arizona plays four of its final six games within the NFC West, and the Seahawks will do them one better with five of their last six contests vs. their divisional rivals.

Cincinnati (6-3-1) at Houston (5-5)

Both teams posted impressive road wins last week. The Bengals bounced back from their debacle against the Browns to surprise the Saints at the Superdome, while Bill O’Brien’s club had its way with the Browns in Cleveland. The Texans have owned this series as of late, having won five straight over Cincinnati (including the playoffs).

Cleveland (6-4) at Atlanta (4-6)

The Browns are two games over .500 and are in last place in the AFC North. Mike Smith’s Falcons are two games under the break-even point and are atop the NFC South. Atlanta is 4-0 vs. its divisional rivals and 0-6 outside the NFC South this season.

Detroit (7-3) at New England (8-2)

Jim Caldwell’s team has allowed an NFL-low 156 points this season. The Patriots have won six straight games and totaled an impressive 243 points over that span. Talk about the irresistible force and the immovable object?

Green Bay (7-3) at Minnesota (4-6)

Back in Week 5 on a Thursday night at Lambeau Field, the Packers blasted the Purple Gang, 42-10. But that was with Christian Ponder behind center for Mike Zimmer’s team. Including a playoff loss in 2012, the Vikings are 1-8-1 in their last 10 meetings in this series.

Miami (6-4) at Denver (7-3)

The Dolphins’ talented defense is beginning to come into its own, as it has produced at least three sacks in seven out of 10 games this season. What to make of Peyton Manning, who has been picked off six times in his last three outings?

Baltimore (6-4) at New Orleans (4-6)

The Ravens had last week off and now return to the site of their Super Bowl XLVII victory less than two years ago. After winning 11 straight at home, Sean Payton’s club has dropped two straight at the Superdome and look to put the brakes on that skid Monday night.