Will a Lack of Star Power Ultimately Hurt NASCAR's Chase Finale at Homestead?
When the 43 drivers in Sunday’s championship-deciding season finale take the green flag at Homestead-Miami Speedway, the sport’s biggest names will be in the race.
But they won’t be in THE race—in other words, vying for the Sprint Cup championship.
Jimmie Johnson won’t be able to go for a seventh championship. Jeff Gordon won’t be able to go for a fifth. Tony Stewart won’t be able to go for a fourth title. Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kyle Busch both won’t be able to go for a first.
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Instead, we have Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano and Ryan Newman. No matter who wins, it will be a first career Cup championship for the victor.
But how will the relative lack of star power play with NASCAR fans? Will they tune in to watch the unprecedented finish in the first-ever elimination-style Chase?
Will fans of Johnson, Gordon, Junior or Stewart who already purchased tickets to Sunday’s race decide instead to sell—if not give them away—because going to the race won’t be worth it for them if “their” driver isn’t in the winner-take-all championship battle?
That’s not to say Harvick, Hamlin, Logano and Newman won’t put on an exciting show. I’m expecting nothing less—and I’m sure NASCAR expects the same.
And while Gordon, Johnson, etc., will still be able to match fenders and speed with the four remaining Chase finalists in a bid to win the race itself, will their fans still want to see their favorite driver compete for what essentially will wind up being a meaningless win?
That’s been one of the biggest problems of the Chase finale at Homestead over the first 10 years of the playoff system.
Quick, who won the season-ending race in 2012? How about 2008? What about 2004 through 2006?
(For the record, the answers are Jeff Gordon in 2012 when Brad Keselowski won the championship, Carl Edwards in 2008 when Jimmie Johnson won the championship and Greg Biffle from 2004 through 2006, when Kurt Busch, Stewart and Johnson, respectively, won the championship.)
Through the first nine weeks of the 10-week Chase, it’s fair to say that the new elimination-style playoff format has received much of the excitement that NASCAR officials had hoped for.
While TV ratings haven’t exploded during this year's playoff, it was heartening to see that Phoenix International Raceway sold out this past Sunday’s race. And let’s not forget that in an era when racetracks have been eliminating seats, PIR actually added seats for this race.
But at the same time, this isn’t the NCAA tournament, where we saw Butler and Virginia Commonwealth come out of nowhere to reach the Final Four in 2011.
Granted, both teams—particularly Butler—ultimately were Cinderella-like stories that grabbed the attention of sports fans and attracted new boosters as they both made their way through the rounds leading up to the Final Four.
Davids beating Goliaths and Cinderella runs are what makes the experience of March Madness so appealing to many fans. But NASCAR thrives on star power.
Of the four drivers gunning for the championship, Harvick would appear to have the most star power heading into Sunday's race.
Harvick (highest Chase finish, third, 2010, 2011 and 2013) has been in Sprint Cup since 2001, had the difficult job of replacing the late Dale Earnhardt after his tragic crash at Daytona, and has arguably the biggest fanbase of the four Chase finalists.
Hamlin (highest Chase finish, second, 2010) is a question mark at best. When he’s faced with significant pressure-packed races, you never know which Hamlin will show up: the one who will take it to the end, or the one who may fold under the pressure.
Logano (highest Chase finish, eighth, 2013) has jumped greatly in credibility and success (a combined six wins, 27 top-fives and 41 top-10s) in the past two seasons—his first two with Penske Racing after four years with Joe Gibbs Racing. But at 24 years old, is Logano ready to handle the championship race pressure and not be distracted or make a mistake?
Lastly, we have Newman (highest Chase finish, sixth, 2005), who may have both the hardest and easiest road of all. Without any wins this season, Newman comes into a race where it’s likely the championship will be decided by whoever wins the race itself.
Newman has gotten this far on consistency, but at the same time, he’s a veteran driver who has shown he can handle pressure. What’s more, he likely has a personal incentive to win as well: He was cut loose from Stewart-Haas Racing last season.
There’d likely be a great deal of satisfaction to not only defeat SHR’s Harvick, but also show the entire organization how wrong it was to let him go.
Whoever wins the championship will truly have earned it, and they will have done so coming at it from different angles and perspectives:
NASCAR doesn’t have to sell me on how exciting the new elimination format has been. It definitely has captured the interest of NASCAR fans as a whole, as well. From Logano’s five wins (most of all four finalists) to Newman’s zero wins, and from Harvick’s uncanny speed during the Chase to Hamlin’s fly-under-the-radar consistency that’s gotten him to this point.
Whether that interest will stand up for fans whose drivers have been eliminated or never even qualified for the Chase—including the sport’s biggest stars—well, that’s as big of a question as who ultimately wins the championship.
Time will tell, and we’ll find that out Sunday afternoon.
Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski
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