Fantasy Baseball: Roaming the Outfield

Injuries and breakouts are starting to shape up in the late part of July. Time is of the essence in many points leagues, where certain categories are becoming harder to gain traction in as games start to pile up. Head-to-head leagues need to be just as concerned, as deficits in the standings can happen quickly, often with just one bad week.

What is happening one week is often leading to a run of good luck for many players, and owners should make moves quickly to get in on the action.

Take, for example, the Reds. Cincinnati has lost Jay Bruce for a fair amount of the second half, and now Chris Dickerson will be sidelined for at least 15 days with a rotator cuff injury. The beneficiary in the short term is Jonny Gomes.

Over the last two weeks, Gomes has put up five home runs in 30 at-bats. While he has never been a savant in terms of overall average and contact, he can certainly help owners looking to get a few home runs up on the board.

Gomes tends to struggle against right-handed pitching, so look to exploit his ability more against southpaws. Still, the Reds basically have three full-time outfielders at this point. That alone gives Gomes enough value to merit attention in NL-only leagues and deep mixed league formats.

Another week has gone by, and Josh Willingham still sits with ownership right around 10 percent. That is certain to jump slightly based on Monday night’s grand slams, but it should have moved anyway. Willingham is hitting .298 this season with 16 home runs.

Early in 2009, he was battling for playing time. Now, though, he has largely won the starting job in right field.

His RBI totals are low, but Willingham has only had 228 at-bats this season to drive in those 39 runs. Factor in a .321 average in July and a .319 number against left-handed pitching, and you have a player that is being drastically undervalued in fantasy baseball.

Any window to capitalize on Nick Markakis is closing quickly. Markakis consistently rakes after the All-Star break and is 14-for-42 since this year’s festivities. In the last two weeks, he has totaled four home runs, and all of those have come since July 17. For the season, he now has 12 home runs and a .295 average.

The performance of Adam Jones this season and the emergence of Nolan Reimold have overshadowed what Markakis has done and is capable of. Savvy owners should grab a guy like Markakis at slightly below his value, and that will benefit them the rest of the summer.

Speaking of Reimold, the lack of home runs should not deter ownership. The rookie is hitting .452 over the last two weeks and has added four steals to the mix. Reimold has not homered since June 27, but he has raised his average nearly 30 points over that time and is hitting .287 for the season. As an extra outfielder, Reimold can pay dividends.

The trade to the Mets has agreed with Jeff Francoeur. With the injuries piling up in New York, Francoeur has found himself hitting in the fifth spot in the lineup.

The uncertain returns of many key players could keep him there for the time being, especially if he continues to hit well. The outfielder added a home run on Monday night in the win against the Rockies.

Since the trade, Francoeur has gone 17-for-52, good for a .327 average in that time. His ownership is about right at 35 percent, but those owners that are missing Torii Hunter for a few more days, or have lost others to the DL, should give him a shot in the short term.

Francoeur showed that he has some power and can hit. Owners have just not seen the benefits of late.

Matt Holliday owners should rejoice, but they are not the only ones. Holliday is going to get much more help in the St. Louis lineup, and he returns to a league where he thrived last season.

Remember that Holliday still hit very close to .300 away from Colorado last season, and he was beginning to relax and hit in Oakland. For July, Holliday is hitting .370.

With Albert Pujols hitting in front of him, and the suddenly hot Ryan Ludwick behind him, Holliday is going to see pitches to hit and have the opportunity to drive in more runs. Look for this lineup to be one of the best in baseball moving into the final months of the season.

All this is before looking at how Mark DeRosa has hit since returning from the DL and the recent week of Rick Ankiel, who has hit well with Colby Rasmus hurting.

Torii Hunter has been doing light workouts and hopes to be back in the Angels lineup by the weekend, though Aug. 7 is the more likely date. Anaheim has done well to win 10 of their last 12 games without Hunter in the lineup, and the performance of Kendry Morales is one of those reasons.

While Morales primarily is playing the infield, he does have outfield eligibility in most formats.

Morales has shined in the last 15 days. He has gone 13 for his last 37, including five home runs and nine RBI. Those numbers put him in the top 10 among all outfielders in this time span for home runs and RBI.

Not only that, in five of his last nine games, Morales has recorded multiple hits. For the season, he is now hitting .292 with 20 home runs. Owners can still find him available in about 40 percent of all formats.

While completely advocating riding the hot hand, many owners may have missed the boat on one. Garrett Jones has shown tremendous production in a short period of time. His power production is one of the reasons (beyond the dollars) that Pittsburgh was able to trade Adam LaRoche.

Still, with the Pirates looking to unload even further and exploring trades for both middle infielders, there may not be many on base for him to bring home. Rightly, though, Jones’ ownership has leaped to between 35 and 40 percent. The production justifies that.

On the other side, there is Franklin Gutierrez. Gutierrez has been producing at a high level for the entire month of July, yet his ownership has climbed to just 25 percent. Good owners, and owners who are leading their leagues or divisions, are always looking to upgrade.

The players listed can all replicate or beat the statistics put up by much stronger players over the last 30 days, and Gutierrez is one of them.

Johnny Damon is 100 percent owned. He is 18 for his last 77, good for a .234 average, without a steal. Damon has three home runs and has scored 16 while driving in 11. Gutierrez has 34 hits in his last 88 at-bats, which is a .386 mark.

In 30 days, he has three steals, five home runs, 19 RBI, and 13 runs scored—meaning the difference in owning the two is not generating three runs but producing better in every other category.

Should you run out to drop Damon? No. Should owners that need Damon-like production be looking at a guy like Gutierrez? You bet.

Jones, Morales, and Willingham are the best of the best in terms of home runs in the last month. They have beaten out every major player that there is. The point being, while owners may not have drafted the upper-echelon outfielders, the production is there to be had with just a little bit of digging.

Collin Hager writes The Elmhurst Pub fantasy blog. You can get your questions answered by sending an email to [e-mail]. He's also on Twitter @TheRoundtable.