
Why Denver Nuggets' Window of Contention Has Likely Already Closed
The Denver Nuggets are currently 1-4 and struggling mightily out of the gate. Some of the contributors on this team are not performing as expected, and the Nuggets aren't built for youth as much as in previous seasons.
The true window of contention for an NBA team is very small, and not realizing when the window has closed can cost a team years of mediocrity. So is the Nuggets' window closed already? I believe so.
Youth
The Nuggets' average age, 26.4, is only a half-year under the league average.
This doesn't seem so bad, but if the outliers of Gary Harris, Jusuf Nurkic and Erick Green are removed, that average balloons to 27.7 years. These three players have only played 64 minutes combined thus far this season, and they are all under 23.
This modified number would make the Nuggets the 12th-oldest team in the league. The lack of success this team is currently experiencing is much harder to swallow when you realize how much older the roster actually is.
Defensive Struggles
This was going to be a defense-first team, they said. Trust Brian Shaw, they said.
The Nuggets are giving up over 106 points per game, and several of their key players are performing like defensive liabilities.
As if this wasn't bad enough, the Nuggets are leading the league in fouls committed by nearly a full foul per game at 28.2.
As so eloquently pointed out by head coach Brian Shaw, this team is not good on the defensive end:
They are giving up the fourth-most points per game in the league and are just not good enough on offense to offset this.
Offensive Woes
The Nuggets have the 12th-worst offense in the league and have no player scoring more than 13 points per game. Kenneth Faried is averaging his lowest point total since his rookie season with 10.2 points.
Arron Afflalo, whose return was greatly hyped this offseason, is struggling to find his stroke. He is averaging only 9.4 points on 33 percent shooting and a torrid 26.3 percent mark from downtown.
This team put a lot of stock into the return of Afflalo complementing the play of centerpieces Ty Lawson and Faried, but it isn't working yet.
As stated by Christopher Dempsey of The Denver Post, the offense has lacked cohesiveness: "Meanwhile, the Nuggets first-team struggled to find offensive flow. They were late getting into plays. They were in each other's way on some occasions. They were just out of sync."
Contract
The contract situation for the Nuggets does allow for some flexibility, as only Faried, Green and Lawson are under contract after next season.
But by the time they can be major players in free agency, Lawson will be turning 29 and Faried will be turning 26.
This means that the Nuggets will have to use that free agency to become contenders right away, as these players' windows will be beginning to close.
Bottom Line
The Nuggets were built, age and contract-wise, to compete this year and next. But the offensive and defensive production has been lacking so far.
Unless the Nuggets can get their offense or defense clicking well enough to compensate for the other, this team will miss the playoffs, and that will probably signal a full-scale rebuild.
All advanced stats and contract info from basketball-reference.com





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