7 NBA Players Who Need to Make the Leap in Their 3rd NBA Season
Biological clocks aren't always easy to read, but history says a player's third NBA season can often be his defining one.
While most are still scratching at the surface of their full potential, they have had enough time under their belts to drop some pretty revealing hints about what kind of career lies ahead.
"A player's identity typically beings to crystallize in his third or fourth NBA season," Grantland's Zach Lowe wrote last December. "... Everyone involved—players, agents, executives—looks to see what emerges as a player nears the expiration of his rookie contract."
For these seven members of the 2012-13 rookie crop, there is money to be made and destinies to forge this season.
A part of this class has already cemented its place in the NBA hierarchy. Two have already shown superstar skills (Anthony Davis and Damian Lillard), two others have flashed that type of upside (Andre Drummond and Bradley Beal) and another has filled the uber-valuable glue-guy spot (Draymond Green).
The seven on this list are more wild cards. An All-Star leap isn't out of the question, but neither is a future entailing nothing more than a complementary role.
The fact that each one finds himself in the middle of the playoff picture only adds to the importance surrounding this critical year of their development.
Harrison Barnes, SF, Golden State Warriors
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Basketball fans are still waiting on Golden State Warriors swingman Harrison Barnes to become the dominant force so many thought he could be.
Dubbed a "Kobe Bryant/Tracy McGrady-like player" by SI.com's Luke Winn in 2010, Barnes has been chasing that incredibly high ceiling ever since. He was good-not-great during two seasons at North Carolina (16.3 points and 5.5 rebounds per game). His first two years with the Warriors produced moments of brilliance between prolonged stretches of mediocrity (10.4 player efficiency rating).
With top-shelf athleticism and a picturesque shooting stroke, it isn't hard to see why he has dazzled so many scouts. But the question remains whether the total package will ever add up to something significant.
On the heels of a disappointing sophomore season that saw him hit only 39.9 percent from the field, Barnes could be positioned for a breakout year. Not only is he back in the Warriors' starting lineup, he is also out of former coach Mark Jackson's isolation-heavy schemes, which put Barnes in some difficult spots.
"He wouldn't get a touch for so long and everyone was, 'Oh, he's shooting a bad percentage.' Well, no (bleep)," Warriors center Andrew Bogut told the San Jose Mercury News' Tim Kawakami. "All of a sudden he catches the ball in the corner, he's like, 'Oh!,' wide-open, clank."
With the players and the ball moving better under Steve Kerr, Barnes has brought his field-goal percentage up to 45.8. He is a big part of the Warriors' frightening depth, and he could be an even larger piece of their championship picture if he lives up to half of his hype.
Perry Jones, SF, Oklahoma City Thunder
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As incredibly high as it is, Oklahoma City Thunder forward Perry Jones' ceiling is impossible to miss.
The 23-year-old oozes upside out of his 6'11" frame. Long (7'1.75" wingspan, per DraftExpress), athletic (38.5" max vertical) and incredibly skilled for his size, Jones has never lacked for the key ingredients of a full-fledged star.
Well, except for opportunity. That's been hard to come by since concerns about both his knee and his motor made him to fall to the Thunder as the 28th overall pick in 2012. By that time, Kevin Durant already had the freakishly long and athletic forward market cornered in OKC.
Jones was a part-time player his first two seasons with the Thunder. He made 38 appearances and averaged 7.4 minutes per game as a rookie, then bumped those numbers to 62 and 12.3, respectively, in 2013-14.
But Durant's foot fracture, coupled with Russell Westbrook's broken hand, have forced the kid gloves off of Jones. Before being sidelined by a knee contusion, Jones had been averaging 15.6 points on 46.7 percent shooting this season.
"I think his assertiveness is maybe that light bulb that's gone off," Thunder forward Nick Collison said, per Bleacher Report's Howard Beck. "He's had the ability. If you watch him in a workout, he's capable of doing anything on the court. He's as talented as anybody in the league. It's just that comfort level and always just being assertive out there, not questioning, not second-guessing, and it's great to see. Hopefully, he can keep going."
If Jones can handle his expanded role, he could be Oklahoma City's key to surviving the losses of its two perennial All-Stars.
Terrence Jones, PF, Houston Rockets
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After thinning their ranks to clear space for Chris Bosh, then watching the big man return to the Miami Heat, the Houston Rockets were supposed to take a step backward this season.
They have stormed out to their first 6-0 start since 1996-97 instead.
A lethal long-range attack deserves the most credit for powering the Rockets out of the gate. Houston leads the NBA in three-point makes (13.5 per game), attempts (31.3) and percentage (43.1). No offense to the Rockets snipers—they have a ton of them—but those numbers don't exactly scream, "Sustainable!"
But even if those marksmen can't keep up this pace, the Rockets may not fall from the ranks of the elites. Not if power forward Terrence Jones can use his versatile skill set to scratch whatever itch arises for the Rockets.
"I want to do all the little things, rebound, run, try to get my points in all types of different ways," Jones told reporters after his 16-point, 13-rebound performance in Houston's opener. "We have a lot of different guys who can score the ball. I just want to be able to get my touches from hard work and hustle plays."
If Jones can shake the leg contusion that has kept him off the floor the past two games, his arsenal is deep enough to fill the X-factor role for this championship hopeful. He stuffs a stat sheet as well as anyone. He is one of only seven players currently averaging at least 14 points, 7.5 boards, 1.5 blocks and 1.0 steals.
He can be both a jack-of-all-trades and a master of several. With his talent, he should be making that type of impact on a nightly basis.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, Charlotte Hornets
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A lot of the players on this list have faced the same question: Do they want this opportunity badly enough? Are they willing to put in the work necessary to become the guy instead of a guy?
Charlotte Hornets forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is different. No one has challenged his desire. USA Today's Sam Amick, then writing for SI.com, called Kidd-Gilchrist a "tough, defensive-minded wing player who is known as a coach's dream" in 2012.
That's not to suggest, however, that Kidd-Gilchrist's resume came without its warts. It had a pretty major one, in fact.
He couldn't shoot.
He attempted 51 triples during his lone season at Kentucky and misfired on all but 13. And his form looked even worse than the numbers suggested, as Grantland's Danny Chau explained:
"When Kidd-Gilchrist got himself into his shooting motion, his hand and elbows would consistently point away from his target at an acute angle. Not until the last second would his palm rotate to its intended position, and not until a beat or two after that would his arms (somewhat) straighten out. Only then would you even know the ball was supposed to head in the rim’s direction.
"
But after spending the last few seasons in the lab with Hornets assistant coach Mark Price—a .472/.402/.904 shooter in his 12-year playing career—Kidd-Gilchrist has emerged with a serviceable stroke. He hasn't broken it out much (seven shots outside of 10 feet), but the incredibly early returns are encouraging (four makes).
And that's all the 6'7" forward really needed considering he was already an expert slasher and relentless defender.
Still, Kidd-Gilchrist's key will be proving this form has staying power. There is a cap on how big of a role an energy can play, but he could break through it if he demands defensive attention away from the basket.
Terrence Ross, SF, Toronto Raptors
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This group of players features a number of explosive athletes, but Toronto Raptors wing Terrence Ross may have the best highlight reel of them all. Not only has the former University of Washington star proved he can fly, he also has a 51-point outburst on his resume.
His talent is obvious, provided you tune in on the right night. His stat sheet shows wild swings in production.
Last season, he had 15 games with 17-plus points. He had 13 outings where he failed to reach five points.
"He can be dominant, he can disappear; he can make shots, he can drift away from the game," The Toronto Star's Doug Smith wrote shortly after Ross' 51-point eruption. "... 'Needs to be more consistent' has been the knock on Ross since he arrived on the scene."
Now, finding consistency isn't easy on a perimeter already giving out 30.2 shots a night combined to DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry. But for the Raptors to build off last season's success, they will need more out of the high-flying Ross.
Through five games, he is shooting just 40 percent from the field. He hasn't gone for more than 13 points, and he has twice failed to hit 30 percent of his shots.
With DeRozan and Lowry playing at or near their peak levels, the Raptors need more production from the rest of their roster. Keeping the Chicago Bulls and Cleveland Cavaliers from battling for Eastern Conference supremacy won't be easy without some major internal growth.
Jonas Valanciunas, C, Toronto Raptors
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The Raptors thought highly enough of Jonas Valanciunas to grab him with the fifth overall pick in 2011, then wait an entire year for his NBA arrival.
The 7-footer looks like he was worth the investment. He is powerful and poised in the low post, an area he strengthened over the summer during training sessions with Hall of Fame center Hakeem Olajuwon. Valanciunas is also comfortable outside the restricted area, as evidenced by last season's 46.1 percent success rate on shots taken three to 16 feet away from the basket.
He seems like a good center, and some nights he produces like a very good one. But the Raptors have been—and still are—looking for greatness out of him.
The 22-year-old, according to the National Post's Eric Koreen, is "perhaps the most important player on the roster when it comes to the franchise’s long-term improvement." If Valanciunas can develop into a dominant center, the Raptors could have a powerful weapon for the next decade.
But after racking up 48 wins last year, Toronto isn't thinking that far ahead. That puts the pressure on Valanciunas to break out sooner than later, though he is in the same battle for touches as Ross.
Currently sitting third in offensive efficiency, the Raptors don't need a lot of points out of their center position. But they have to get Valanciunas to play a bigger part as a shot-blocker and rebounder.
The Raptors will need his size to either counteract Chicago's interior weapons or exploit Cleveland's lack thereof.
Dion Waiters, SG, Cleveland Cavaliers
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All is not well with the wildly revamped Cleveland Cavaliers.
LeBron James and Kyrie Irving may or may not have argued over the direction of this offense. Either way, the Cavs have one win to show from their first four outings, the NBA's 18th-ranked offense and the league's lowest assist percentage (47.8).
Polarizing combo guard Dion Waiters may not be the cause of Cleveland's problems, but he certainly hasn't been a solution. The third-year scorer, who was recently pulled out of the starting lineup, has put up just 7.5 points a night on 32.4 percent shooting. Entering this season, he held a career 15.3 points-per-game scoring average and a 42.4 field-goal percentage.
At his best, he can put up points from anywhere on the floor. He's a decent shooter from distance (career 34.3 percent), an explosive finisher at the basket and a constant threat off the dribble.
But with James, Irving and Kevin Love around, the Cavs don't have a real need for a high-volume scorer. That means first-year coach David Blatt must decide how to best make use of Waiters' strengths.
"Waiters seems overqualified as a scorer for his current role and under-qualified or unqualified for the other things that contenders often look for from their complementary guards, whether that’s defending multiple positions or exercising judicious shot selection and hitting open shots," wrote Sports Illustrated's Ben Golliver.
Either Waiters needs to prove himself capable of playing off the ball and causing havoc as a defender, or the Cavs may have to look elsewhere to find someone who can. His leap won't include the greatest numbers, but his growth as a team-first contributor could have a major impact on this championship race.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
