Fantasy Football 2014: Top 5 Tight Ends to Target or Avoid in Trades

The fantasy football 2014 trade window is closing. Researching the tight end strength of schedule can help determine which players to target and avoid. Read this list to know if you should buy or sell studs like Vernon Davis, Greg Olsen and Rob Gronkowski.

You can’t effectively execute great moves without knowing when the trade deadline is in your league. All the speculation below is moot if you don’t get the deal done beforehand.

CBS Sports’ trade deadline strikes during Week 11; ESPN, Yahoo and NFL.com block trades during Week 12.

Guidelines

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

The tight ends on this list are ranked based on strength of schedule from Week 10 on, according to Fantasy Pros.

Strength of schedule is determined by Fantasy Pros’ points allowed to tight end statistics. The average TE points-allowed mark is 8.2. Chicago comes in last, allowing 13.4 points per game. Philadelphia is the toughest, permitting only 4.4.

Individual fantasy scoring is reported from ESPN’s standard scoring list.

Bye weeks are figured into this assessment.

The end of the fantasy regular season for this ranking is considered Week 13. The fantasy playoffs are Weeks 14-16, ignoring the often chaotic Week 17. If your league plays through Week 17, all I can do is offer my condolences.

Honorable Mentions

Don Wright/Associated Press

Target: Larry Donnell, New York Giants

Donnell ranks 10th in TE scoring at 7.1 PPG. Week 16 vs. St. Louis (6.1 PPG allowed) marks the only tricky matchup left on the schedule.

His downside is his inconsistency. He peaked at 23 points in Week 4 and nosedived with zero in Week 6.

Target: Dwayne Allen, Indianapolis Colts

Allen would easily crack the top five if Coby Fleener wasn’t thieving touchdowns. Allen leads the duo in catches (26 to 22), yards (374 to 295) and touchdowns (seven to four). Who knows if Allen would be as effective if Fleener wasn’t there to draw attention? In turn, Fleener is also drawing from his production.

The Colts’ last formidable opponent in TE points allowed is Houston (5.7 PPG), whose worst week was its first meeting with Indianapolis in Week 6 (11 total points, per ESPN scoring).

5. Target: Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles

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Ertz quite frankly is not a better tight end than Donnell and Allen, but Philadelphia faces so many TE-friendly defenses that his potential is undeniable.

	Wk 10	Wk 11	Wk 12	Wk 13	Wk 14	Wk 15	Wk 16
Opponent	Car	@GB	Ten	@Dal	Sea	Dal	@Was
TE PA Rank	12th	16th	22nd	29th	30th	29th	24th
TE PA PPG	6.5	7.6	9.4	11.6	11.7	11.6	9.9

Current Ertz owners displayed their impatience by outright dropping him in 10.7 percent of ESPN leagues over the last week. The second-year second-rounder out of Stanford fell to 62.8 percent ownership overall.

But that was under Nick Foles.

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Eagles QB Nick Foles does not need surgery on his fractured collarbone, source says. Best possible news. Hope is he's back in 6 weeks.

— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) November 3, 2014

"

Mark Sanchez's stepping in for Foles—combined with that favorable schedule—could be the break the Ertz holdouts were waiting for. Sanchez made Dustin Keller top 10 among TEs in both receptions (ninth with 65) and yards (sixth with 815) in 2011, their last full season together.

Don’t worry about the fact that Brent Celek logged more snaps than Ertz to this point either.

Celek leads Ertz 437 to 321 in snaps, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). But Ertz leads Celek on passing plays 219 to 171. Celek stayed home to block on 26 percent of those passing snaps, while Ertz pass-blocked on merely nine percent of his. It’s pretty obvious who is Chip Kelly’s primary receiving TE based on these numbers.

Ertz is a classic buy-low target with tons of potential as we approach the fantasy playoffs.

4. Target: Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

Kyle Rivas/Getty Images

PFF ranks Kelce fourth among TEs overall, third in receiving and sixth in run blocking. That’s a huge endorsement of the second-year third-rounder out of Cincinnati—Go Bearcats!—after he missed his rookie season with a knee injury.

Kelce ranks second on the team in targets—42 to Dwayne Bowe’s 47—while leading in receptions, yards and touchdowns—32, 419 and four. Those numbers should only increase due to favorable upcoming matchups.

There isn’t a single top-end defense in TE points allowed left on the schedule. This week’s game at Buffalo should prove the toughest test for the rest of the season.

Kelce isn’t ranked higher on this list due to Andy Reid’s inconsistent use of his best receiver. Anthony Fasano has been on the field for 90 percent of Kansas City’s snaps to Kelce’s 51 percent appearance rate, according to PFF. That includes Week 9 against the Jets, when Fasano logged 56 of 59 snaps to Kelce’s 30.

Kelce makes an excellent buy-low candidate if Reid would leave Alex Smith’s second-favorite target on the field more often.

3. Target: Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

The first half of 2014 treated Davis unkindly. His only two touchdowns came in the opener against Dallas, followed by an ankle injury, back problems and massive fantasy disappointment.

Disgruntled owners dropped Davis to 71.1 percent ownership in ESPN leagues—a mighty fall for the fourth-ranked TE in average draft position.

Davis and offensive coordinator Greg Roman’s words leading up to Week 9’s game against the Rams didn’t exactly pan out on Sunday—two catches for 19 yards. But Davis’ potential is too great to ignore in the all-important stretch run.

He has posted 13-touchdown seasons twice with Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick at quarterback, after all.

With the injuries in the rearview mirror and opportunistic forecasts against the Giants (11.6), Washington (9.9) and Seattle twice (11.7), now is not the time to abandon hope in Davis.

Unless you have one of the top TEs in the league, you should be trying to steal Davis and enjoy what should be three or four big games in crunch time.

2. Avoid: Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

Olsen owners are enjoying the best season of his career. He ranks fourth among his peers, according to Pro Football Reference’s fantasy rankings.

He is Carolina’s leading receiver (45), keeping pace with Kelvin Benjamin for touchdowns—five apiece—and yards—539 to Benjamin’s 589. That makes Olsen the fourth highest-rated receiving TE, according to PFF.

So why wouldn’t a high-end TE seeker want to target Olsen? Because Carolina’s schedule is loaded with high-ranked defenses in TE PA, plus the team has a late bye week.

	Wk 10	Wk 11	Wk 12	Wk 13	Wk 14	Wk 15	Wk 16
Opponent	@Phi	Atl	BYE	@Min	@NO	TB	Cle
TE PA Rank	1st	3rd	BYE	5th	2nd	17th	10th
TE PA PPG	4.4	5.2	BYE	5.5	4.6	8.2	6.1

Olsen is susceptible to bad matchups given two of his three worst fantasy performances this season came against New Orleans (three points) and Baltimore (three), who are ranked second and seventh, respectively. The Saints and Ravens were by far Carolina’s harshest opponents in TE points allowed before this week’s scuffle with the Eagles.

Olsen owners are probably better off sticking with him or selling high if there are other needs.

But TE speculators should look elsewhere if they're looking to pay top dollar for a top-tier talent.

1. Avoid: Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots

Jim Rogash/Getty Images

Attention readers: I’m not in any way advocating that any of the above recommended trade targets are actually better than Gronkowski. He’s the undisputed No. 1 fantasy TE this season and a red-zone monster, according to CBS Sports.

So let’s not get carried away pretending this list is some kind of straight-up TE ranking. It’s not.

It is, however, a tight end trade prospectus meant especially for those out there with an MFBA—masters in fantasy business administration. MFBAs will appreciate why Gronkowski tops this list. His asking price would undoubtedly be too high given the almost inevitable possibility he’ll suffer another season-ending injury on any given snap.

I mean, did you see T.J. Ward take another direct shot at his knee on Sunday?!

Gronkowski started 17 games while missing 15 in the past two seasons, according to PFR.

The All-Pro is obviously the best fantasy TE around, and the Patriots' remaining strength of schedule is average. His owners should either pray he maintains his health for the rest of 2014 or sell him incredibly high for at least two starters at needed positions.

TE buyers, on the other hand, shouldn’t target Gronkowski under any circumstances. He’s on pace to score another 74 points over the next six weeks, but don’t let that enormous potential eclipse the foreboding risk.

Gronkowski’s price tag will be astronomical, meaning you’ll likely be left with several roster holes if he is sidelined after the trade.

All trades are gambles that involve strategy and luck. If you stick with this list, the odds are you’ll feel luckier in December.