College Football Picks Week 11: Odds and Spread Predictions for Top 25 Teams

The College Football Playoff brings a whole new level of intensity to this point of the season. As we begin to head down the final stretch, more teams than ever are jockeying for position in an effort to claim a spot in the Top Four.

After 10 turbulent weeks of action on the amateur gridiron, only two undefeated teams remain in the selection committee's Top 25. They are followed closely by a bevy of one-loss teams champing at the bit for a chance to rise to the top of the pecking order.

With some enticing Week 11 matchups full of playoff implications on the way, we should expect these rankings to shift once again. Will the nation's top teams be heavily tested and pave the way for alterations at the top of the hierarchy?

Here's a look at the College Football Playoff selection committee's Top 25 with corresponding matchup odds and expected outcomes.

Rank	Team	Opp.	Spread	Pick ATS
1	Mississippi State	UTM	off	Mississippi State
2	Florida State	Virginia	FSU -20.5	Virginia
3	Auburn	Texas A&M	AUB -23.5	Auburn
4	Oregon	(17) Utah	ORE -8	Oregon
5	Alabama	(16) LSU	ALA -7	Alabama
6	TCU	(7) Kansas State	TCU -6	Kansas State
7	Kansas State	(6) TCU	TCU -6	Kansas State
8	Michigan State	(14) Ohio State	MSU -3.5	Michigan State
9	Arizona State	(10) Notre Dame	ASU -2.5	Notre Dame
10	Notre Dame	(9) Arizona State	ASU -2.5	Notre Dame
11	Ole Miss	Presbyterian	off	Ole Miss
12	Baylor	(15) Oklahoma	OU -6	Baylor
13	Nebraska	Bye week	—	—
14	Ohio State	(8) Michigan State	MSU -3.5	Michigan State
15	Oklahoma	(12) Baylor	OU -6	Baylor
16	LSU	(5) Alabama	ALA -7	Alabama
17	Utah	(4) Oregon	ORE -8	Oregon
18	UCLA	Washington	UCLA -6.5	UCLA
19	Arizona	Colorado	AZ -17	Colorado
20	Georgia	Kentucky	GU -17	Kentucky
21	Clemson	Wake Forest	Final	Clemson, 34-20
22	Duke	Syracuse	Duke -3.5	Duke
23	West Virginia	Texas	WVU -3	West Virginia
24	Georgia Tech	North Carolina State	GT -3.5	North Carolina State
25	Wisconsin	Purdue	WIS -17	Wisconsin

Week 11 College Football Playoff committee rankings can be viewed at CollegeFootballPlayoff.com.

All game odds courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of November 6.

Marquee Games

Kansas State (+6) at TCU

Orlin Wagner/Associated Press

This matchup's outcome will rely heavily on how well TCU junior quarterback Trevone Boykin can play in a contest that will put him under plenty of pressure from both the game's implications and the Kansas State defense.

Boykin really emerged as a passer for the first time this season. We already knew he was a threat to run after watching him perform in 2013, but he's led the Horned Frogs to become the sixth-ranked passing team in the nation. ESPN College Football tweeted the difference in the signal-caller's play from 2013 to 2014:

However, the quarterback isn't coming off a strong performance.

The West Virginia Mountaineers have been playing solid defense lately, and that showed in Week 10 against an uncharacteristically inaccurate Boykin. The quarterback got off to a sluggish start, and he watched his team fall behind early. While TCU did come back for a win, Boykin completed just 12 of his 30 passing attempts for 166 yards, one touchdown and one interception for a passer rating of 23.6.

Now, he faces the challenge of righting the ship against a Kansas State team ranked 12th in the nation in points allowed, giving up an average of just 18.6 per game. If Boykin can't get it going early again in Week 11, TCU will be in serious trouble.

Kansas State's offense has the ability to sustain long drives and keep opposing offenses off the field. Quarterback Jake Waters flourishes in an offense revolving around high-percentage passes and the option to gain yards with his legs. He may not allow Boykin and Co. on the field long enough to do significant damage.

Prediction: Kansas State 30, TCU 27

Ohio State at Michigan State (-3.5)

USA TODAY Sports

Ohio State's offense is red-hot right now, but so is Michigan State's defense. This clash of Big Ten foes could answer the question of what happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object.

After a close call against Penn State, the Buckeyes got things going in Week 10 against Illinois. Quarterback J.T. Barrett found more consistency due to a run-oriented offense and passing plays that were better suited to his skill set. This allowed him to finish the game completing 15 of his 24 passing attempts for 167 yards and two touchdowns.

Here's a look at what Barrett has produced this season compared to last-year's starter, Braxton Miller, via ESPN College Football:

A short passing game was a perfect complement to a running game featuring a bevy of highly skilled ball-carriers, including Ezekiel Elliott and Curtis Samuel. The running game continued to put the team in great position on third down, and as a result, the Buckeyes converted seven of their 12 attempts in that department.

Things won't be quite as easy Saturday against the Spartans. This defense has been playing some lights-out football lately, allowing 22 points or fewer in five of its last six games. Sparty crushed in-state rival Michigan in Week 10, allowing a mere 186 yards of total offense and forcing three turnovers.

Ohio State will have difficulty scoring on a defense allowing just 20.3 points per game, and the Buckeyes' emerging running game will have trouble finding room to maneuver against Michigan State's sixth-ranked run defense, allowing an average of 95.4 yards per game.

It's hard to bet against the immovable object in this one.

Prediction: Michigan State 34, Ohio State 23

Notre Dame (+2.5) at Arizona State

Nick Wass/Associated Press

The Fighting Irish may be considered underdogs in Week 11 after allowing Navy to hang around in Week 10. However, that's nothing new for Notre Dame, as all four of its last games have finished within 10-point scoring margins.

Despite the team not being able to blow opponents out of the water, its only loss on the season was due to a last-second touchdown by Florida State. Everett Golson has stepped up tremendously in recent weeks, and he displayed the ability to get points on the board with his arm and his legs, accumulating six total touchdowns in Notre Dame's win over Navy.

Rotoworld's Josh Norris tweeted one example of Golson's passing prowess:

On the flip side, Arizona State has struggled to get points on the board in recent weeks, scoring 27 or fewer points in four of its last five games. The Sun Devils were taken into overtime in Week 10 by the Utes due to an inefficient offense. Arizona State racked up 444 yards of total offense but only converted two of its 14 third-down attempts.

Quarterback Taylor Kelly finished the game against Utah completing 18 of his 32 passing attempts for 205 yards, one touchdown and one interception for a 31.5 passer rating. That won't get it done against the Fighting Irish, so expect the Sun Devils to put running back Demario Richard to work.

Richard has a chance to have a big day against Notre Dame with middle linebacker Joe Schmidt on the shelf. However, Arizona State will need production across its offense to keep up with a surging Golson and a Notre Dame defense that is allowing an average of just 21.6 points per game.

Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Arizona State 24