NASCAR at Phoenix 2014: Complete Preview and Prediction for Quicken Loans 500
NASCAR returns to the Valley of the Sun this weekend, home to Phoenix International Raceway, the site of the penultimate race of the 2014 Sprint Cup Series schedule.
Sunday’s Quicken Loans 500 is also known as the "Last Chance Dance" for the eight drivers in the Eliminator Round of the Chase. A win here guarantees you an invitation as one of the final four drivers to compete for the championship at Homestead-Miami Speedway Nov. 16.
The drama that began during the green-white-checkered finish last weekend at Texas Motor Speedway is sure to continue, with Brad Keselowski collecting more “he loves me not” charms with each passing race.
Kevin Harvick returns to the scene of his early-season triumph faced with elimination. He'd be assured advancement into the finale with a victory. Keselowski has to win as well, but like Harvick, he could play the points game, though he has to rely on others to have a bad day. And then there’s Jeff Gordon’s dilemma. He needs a top-three finish, although a victory will also get him a ticket to ride at Homestead.
Sunday’s 312-mile/500-kilometer challenge may just be the best race of the season, with so much on the line and four drivers eliminated at its conclusion. You’ll not have to wait until after the race is over to see fireworks at this one.
Qualifying Report
1 of 6
Chase participant Denny Hamlin won the pole for Sunday’s Quicken Loans 500 with a lap of 25.332 seconds, 142.113 mph.
Starting alongside Hamlin on the front row is Brad Keselowski. The Team Penske driver’s lap was a mere six-thousandths of a second slower, 25.338 seconds, 142.079 mph.
Hamlin was surprised that his pole-winning lap was a quick as it was.
"I definitely didn't think it was, but I was really hoping to back up what we ran the previous run,” Hamlin said in a live post-qualifying interview on television. “I hit my marks perfectly and the adjustments just kept getting better and better. That's a big surprise."
It was the Joe Gibbs Racing driver’s third pole of the 2014 season.
February’s race winner Kevin Harvick starts third, Joey Logano is fourth and Matt Kenseth rounds out the top five. During the first round of qualifying, Logano reset the track qualifying record with a lap of 25.327 seconds, 142.141 mph.
Notable starts: Jeff Gordon (seventh), Jimmie Johnson (15th), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (16th), Ryan Newman (20th) and Tony Stewart (29th).
Kyle Larson is the highest starting rookie (eighth).
The Quicken Loans 500 takes the green flag approximately 2:18 p.m. ET on Sunday.
*Qualifying statistics courtesy of NASCAR Integrated Marketing Communications
By the Numbers: Phoenix International Raceway and the Quicken Loans 500
2 of 6
Celebrating its 50th anniversary this year, Phoenix International Raceway has the unique distinction of playing host to both the second and the second-to-last events in the NASCAR Sprint Cup schedule.
When the facility first opened in 1964, with the idea that it would host open-wheel and IndyCar races, the original layout included a road course that ran inside and outside the oval track. There was also a drag strip adjacent to the oval track. Because of this, the oval was designed with a distinctive dogleg on the back straight.
The road course was removed in 1991, and the track remained virtually unchanged until 20 years later, when the oval was repaved and the dogleg on the back straight—always a challenge for drivers and crew chiefs alike—was reconfigured and given banking. This changed the entire character of the track and forced crew chiefs to essentially throw out their “book” on the track.
Because of its location in the desert, heat and sand are factors on both tire wear and brake wear, with the brakes especially taking a beating as drivers charge into what are essentially flat Turns 1 and 3 with their 10 and eight degrees of banking, respectively.
Quicken Loans Race For Heroes 500
Where: Phoenix International Raceway
When: Sunday, Nov. 9
Time: Green flag is approximately 3:18 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN’s Countdown begins at 2 p.m. ET
Radio: Motor Racing Network (MRN), Sirius XM Ch. 90
Distance: 500 kilometers (312 laps)
Key Storylines
3 of 6
Boys Have at It (cont.)
Expect to hear plenty of “That happened last week. I’m over it, it’s time to move on” rhetoric from the drivers involved in last Sunday’s post-race melee. They’ve learned to temper their reactions to events that happened during the previous week’s racing.
But trust me, they’ve not forgotten anything. There’s still plenty of anger and frustration to go around, and it’s likely to spill over into the action early at Phoenix. Both Harvick and Keselowski see a win as the best way to be one of the four drivers vying for the title.
Expect a few minor bumps early in the race—you know, a few “don’t forget I’m here” kind of bumps that cause no harm and no foul.
The real fun...that’ll all come later, especially if there’s another green-white-checkered finish.
The Last Dance—And We Mean It
Only 18 points separate the first from eighth in driver points, so don't expect too many Mac and Tosh moments by any of the drivers in the Chase. Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin and Ryan Newman are the only drivers who can clinch a spot as one of the final four drivers without the benefit of how others finish.
Both Logano and Hamlin can advance with finishes of 11th or better, 12th with one lap led or 13th with the most laps led. Newman needs to finish ninth or better, 10th with only one lap led or 11th with the most laps led.
If you’re one of those NASCAR fans who think the sport has become too politically correct, then you’re going to love Sunday’s Sprint Cup race.
“It’s going to be more intense," Hamlin said during a teleconference earlier this week. "You’re going to have eight guys that have a shot at making it. We all know winning puts us in. There’s three of us that can finish top 10 and make it. Everyone else is going to be fighting for a win. Knowing that win could be the finale, it would be as intense as you’ve seen each one of these last weekends."
Tires (and Grip) Will Be An Issue
Combine the higher temperatures posed by the race being held in Arizona in the fall, the nearly flat corners on the speedway’s one-mile oval and the comparatively new surface, and you’ve got a recipe for multiple tire failures.
Crew chiefs will use radical front-end geometry and low tire pressures to offer the highest mechanical grip possible for drivers. That means extreme camber in the right-front wheel and multiple rear-tire failures as drivers search for the best rotation through the corner and grip as they exit.
“Trying to manage rear grip is the key and probably the most challenging thing about that track, especially since the repave a couple of years ago,” Michael Waltrip Racing driver Clint Bowyer said in his team’s pre-race media release.
“You will be racing along and your car is stuck like glue, then in an instant the rear end wants to jump out and you’re really in trouble, because without much banking in the track, there is no give in it. You either have grip or you feel like you are racing on ice. Trying to manage that rear grip level and keeping your tires underneath you is hard to do.”
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Top Contenders
4 of 6
Kevin Harvick
The Stewart-Haas Racing driver has led the most laps (1,819) in the series this season, and he’s captured the most pole wins (8). He could sweep both races for the second time (2006) in his career with a win Sunday.
Brad Keselowski
The Team Penske driver has three top-fives and a sixth-place finish since the track was repaved in 2011. He won the pole and took third in March.
“We are going into the Phoenix race with our heads up, our hearts pure and our eyes focused. It’s going to be fun,” Keselowski said in his team’s pre-race media release.
Jimmie Johnson
Johnson is a non-chaser but a serious wild card, as he proved to be last weekend. He has four wins and a staggering 14 top-fives at Phoenix. It will be hot, and the track will be greasy, making his race car loose. Johnson likes it that way. He's a genuine threat to make it difficult for the Gang of Eight.
Jeff Gordon
Phoenix isn’t one of the four-time champ’s better tracks. It took him 14 years of trying to win his first (2007) Cup race here. He won again in 2011. Gordon is likely to forget all about his history and be very aggressive to win again and assure his spot as one of the final four drivers at Homestead
Joey Logano
Phoenix is historically one of Logano's worst tracks, as he has no wins and only two top-five finishes. He finished fourth in March. But because he’s having a career-making season, nothing’s going to get in the way of his desire to win his first (of many) title(s), including the other eight Chase drivers. Logano likes to say that his team needs to just keep doing what it's doing. And he's right.
Potential Chase Spoiler: Dale Earnhardt Jr.
5 of 6
As if his recent victory at Martinsville wasn’t sufficient to prove he is good enough to still be in the Chase, Dale Earnhardt Jr. is good enough at Phoenix to win again this weekend. He has two career wins and seven top-five finishes at the track, including a runner-up finish in March.
He may not be able to win the championship for outgoing crew chief Steve Letarte before he leaves for a career in broadcasting NASCAR races, but winning the last two races of the season just might be as good.
Junior scored his two Cup wins at Phoenix back-to-back, going to Victory Lane in November 2003 and November 2004, in years when Phoenix hosted one Cup event per season.
Team orders? Not at Hendrick Motorsports. Don’t even think that Junior will lie down for Gordon if the latter is running second again.
And the Winner Is: Kevin Harvick
6 of 6
He’s had what could arguably be called the best car nearly every weekend this season. And he’s oh so close to claiming a first Cup title.
Just four words are needed to explain why Harvick will win Sunday: because he has to.
All quotes are taken from official NASCAR, team and manufacturer media releases unless otherwise stated.
Bob Margolis is a member of the National Motorsports Press Association and has covered NASCAR, IndyCar, the NHRA and Sports Cars for more than two decades as a writer, television producer and on-air talent.
On Twitter: @BobMargolis
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
