NBA Draft 2015: Early Look at New Crop of Top 10 Prospects
With college exhibition games underway, it's time to unveil our top-10 prospects heading into the 2014-15 season.
And once again, it's the freshmen who'll likely be hearing their names called early and often in June.
The power recruiting programs—Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, Arizona—represent most of this year's elite.
But we also have a couple of international guys in the mix, including one who bypassed college and chose to spend his one-and-done season in China.
We're not looking at the same level of star power in 2015 as we did in 2014, but there are undoubtedly a couple of potential franchise cornerstones for NBA teams to drool over.
1. Jahlil Okafor, Duke, 6'11", C, Freshman
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The consensus No. 1 recruit in his class, Jahlil Okafor—now the AP Preseason Player of the Year—should be offering the best of both worlds: immediate dominance and terrific long-term upside.
The immediate dominance should be fueled by his overwhelming 272-pound frame, 7'5" wingspan and special feel for the game.
He has a number of one-on-one moves up his sleeve in the post, where he can back down defenders and score over the shoulder or face them up and attack off the bounce. And that's where his potential and appeal lie—as a go-to option against a set defense.
Okafor's basketball IQ is almost as significant as his physical tools and skills. He's an extremely bright player who senses weakness and knows how to pounce.
And with those long arms and quick feet, he can help shrink the size of the rim he's protecting.
Okafor isn't the most explosive athlete, but he moves really well, whether he's running the floor in transition, spinning baseline or tap-dancing through traffic into a hook shot.
Given his maturity, polish and expected role at Duke, where he'll be featured from Day 1, Okafor could end up putting up some major numbers as a freshman.
And at this stage, he looks like the safest bet to go No. 1 in June with so much certainty surrounding his game and outlook.
2. Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky, 7'0", PF/C, Freshman
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If it hasn't happened already, it shouldn't be long before Karl-Anthony Towns enters the No. 1 overall conversation.
He was a standout during Kentucky's trip to the Bahamas, where the Wildcats faced off against legitimate international competition. And he turned heads a month ago at John Calipari's nationally televised combine.
At 7'0" with fluid mobility and athleticism, Towns does it all offensively, from pick-and-roll finishing and post scoring to outside shooting, passing and rebounding.
Not that the University of Pikesville should have been expected to contain him, but for what it's worth, Towns went for 22 points on one missed shot in Kentucky's first exhibition tune-up.
He's going to impact games right away and likely establish himself as a focus in Calipari's first unit.
Towns doesn't offer the rim protection or defensive instincts that previously drafted centers like Joel Embiid and Nerlens Noel did, and that slightly hurts his outlook. But you just don't typically see freshmen with this type of size and skill level.
ESPN's Fran Fraschilla projects him as a top-two pick, according to the scouts he spoke to. If Duke's Jahlil Okafor underwhelms or raises any concerns, look for Towns' stock to reap the benefits directly.
3. Emmanuel Mudiay, China, 6'5", PG, 1996
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At this point, it's tough to say how Emmanuel Mudiay's decision to play in China will affect his 2015 draft stock. But scouts are well-aware of what the 19-year-old brings to the table and what he could potentially bring later on, whether he's playing the season in Division I, China or on Mars.
At 6'5", Mudiay is a scoring point guard with a blend of mismatch physical tools and sharp offensive skills that together drive All-Star upside.
He can control a game off the dribble. Mudiay has excellent vision and dynamic change-of-direction ability, along with the quickness to break down defenses and the athleticism to finish above the rim.
If we're talking about long-term potential, John Wall is the type of ceiling projection we're looking at.
On the downside, his jumper and shooting range need work, as do his decision-making skills with the ball. Mudiay has the tendency to overdribble or dance.
He recently scored 18 points in his debut against Stephen Marbury's Beijing Shougang Ducks, though he didn't play particularly well, finishing 6-of-19 in the loss.
However, Mudiay bounced back a few days later with a giant 29-point effort (seven assists, six turnovers) in a win.
Mudiay appears to have a green light for the Guangdong Southern, so we'll likely see heavy production mixed with frustrating inefficiency.
Quite frankly, if Mudiay wants to maximize his 2015 draft stock, winning games as the floor general against grown men of another country would ultimately be his best look.
4. Cliff Alexander, Kansas, 6'9", PF, Freshman
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Cliff Alexander should win over a whole lot of fans this season just based on his athleticism, energy and motor.
That's really his game—at 6'9", Alexander is aggressive and constantly active down low, where he owns the glass and protects the rim.
It's no longer a 50-50 ball when he's around it. Alexander should put up enormous rebounding numbers this season, as well pick up his fair share of highlight putbacks off misses.
He has the current ability and long-term potential to impact games without using a dribble. And considering where most of his shots come from and how strong of a finisher he is inside, he could probably end up with a field-goal percentage this season around or above 55 percent.
Alexander also happens to have some nice shooting touch, which we've seen in doses between the McDonald's All-American Game, Jordan Brand Classic and other showcase events. We might not see it in coach Bill Self's offense, but it's possible we'll see it down the road.
The downside to Alexander is the skill set; it's unrefined, and chances are we won't be seeing many isolation post-ups—the way Joel Embiid got points—or spot-up jumpers on the perimeter.
Still, those skills can be added or improved on over time. You just can't teach what Alexander can do in the paint. Don't expect him to stray far from the top-five conversation all year.
5. Stanley Johnson, Arizona, 6'7", SG/SF, Freshman
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By the time June rolls around, chances are we'll be referring to Stanley Johnson as a pretty safe bet.
He'll make an immediate impact this season at the defensive end alone, where his strength, length and quickness are built to lock down opposing wings. Johnson D's up with that Ron Artest and Kawhi Leonard type of body and intensity, and that plays to his appeal as a low-risk prospect.
But offensively, he's made strides over the last year that should ultimately propel him into the top-10 conversation.
Johnson averaged 14 points and took home MVP honors at the FIBA Under-18 World Championships this summer. He is always at his best attacking the rim and playing through contact, and his jumper, though still a work in progress, has started to come around.
Improving as a shot creator against a set defense, particularly on the perimeter, should sit atop his to-do list moving forward, but between his slashing ability, defense and overall competitiveness, Johnson can impact games without needing to generate offense one-on-one.
6. Kelly Oubre, Kansas, 6'7", SF, Freshman
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With 6'7" size, electric athleticism and a smooth lefty stroke, Kelly Oubre screams NBA scoring wing.
He'll put up points right away for Kansas—it wouldn't even be too surprising if he led the team in scoring. Oubre just has a knack for getting buckets, whether he's spotting up, slashing through the lane, lofting a floater over the defense or flying out on the break.
A good passer and ball-handler, he also exhibits a little playmaking versatility.
And he has some appealing defensive tools as well. When locked in, he's shown the foot speed to stay in front of guards and the length and quickness to irritate wings.
In terms of weaknesses, Oubre isn't the most efficient one-on-one scorer. As a shot-creator in the half court, he can end up settling for jumpers or forcing low-percentage looks. He's also on the skinny side at 190 pounds, and it wouldn't be overly surprising if he struggles finishing in traffic at the rim.
But Oubre's offensive instincts, top-shelf athleticism and shooting touch could go a long way. Look for that two-way upside to keep him in the top-five conversation—even if Kansas' depth and all the mouths that must get fed lead to individual statistical inconsistency.
7. Kristaps Porzingis, Latvia, 7'0", PF, 1995
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Kristaps Porzingis returned to Sevilla this year after generating lottery buzz last May, which makes him a top-10 candidate in what could be a weaker 2015 draft.
And he's off to a good start through seven games this season, while his minutes are up from 15.2 per game to 21.3.
The appeal to Porzingis is obvious—at 7'0", he blends NBA center size and athleticism with an inside-out offensive skill set.
The other day against Virtus Roma he finished with 18 points, seven boards, four assists, four steals and two blocks. Offensively, he picked up a dunk in transition and another off a pick-and-roll while nailing three three-pointers, including one out of a pick-and-pop.
He's not putting up these types of lines on an every-game basis, but this performance highlighted his upside and two-way versatility.
The big question with Porzingis is strength—at around 220 pounds, he's not a banger inside. Will he be able to hold his own in the post and on the glass at the NBA level?
Still, at only 19 years old, Porzingis is more of a project than an immediate solution. Someone will bite early on his long-term potential.
8. Mario Hezonja, Croatia, 6'8", SG/SF, 1995
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It's been a while since we've seen Mario Hezonja play regular minutes consistently, and that's unlikely to change in 2014-15, when he's expected to ride the bench once again for Barcelona in the Spanish ACB.
But Hezonja has been on the radar since 2011 when he took home the MVP of the Under-16 European Championships.
He's an obvious talent. Hezonja stands around 6'8" and possesses some sensational athleticism—a solid combination for a projected 2-guard or NBA wing.
One-on-one, he's capable of separating into jumpers, whether it's with the pull-up or step-back. And he's a threatening slasher off the dribble, as well as off the ball.
The knock on Hezonja stems from his style of play. The ball has the tendency to stick to his hands, and it's fair to question his ability to score within the flow of a team offense.
Unfortunately, Hezonja's opportunities have been limited, making him one of the tougher prospects to evaluate. Playing less than nine minutes per game, he'll be judged based strictly on potential if he declares this June, which could actually work well for him in a draft that lacks star power at the top.
9. Bobby Portis, Arkansas, 6'10", PF, Sophomore
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There is a lot to like about Bobby Portis if you can accept the fact he doesn't offer a Kevin Garnett type of power forward ceiling.
He's just a solid all-around prospect with a game that typically translates well.
For starters, he stands 6'10" with a big-time 7'1.5" wingspan and excellent footwork. And he's skilled around the rim, where he shot 60 percent last season, per DraftExpress' Mike Schmitz.
But with a nice stroke and high release, it's in the mid-range where Portis can really make some money later on. He shot a terrific 41.3 percent on 46 attempts last year from 17 feet to the arc, per Schmitz.
He's also overlooked as a passer, having finished his freshman year with an impressive 10.9 percent assist percentage, while his defense was strong, thanks to his length and mobility. He averaged 1.5 blocks and only 1.7 personal fouls.
Now a sophomore, Portis should be looking at more touches in the offense. And assuming he continues to convert in the mid-range and adds a little to his one-one-one repertoire, Portis should enter the year as a potential lottery prospect to watch.
10. Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky, 7'0", C, Junior
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With Willie Cauley-Stein, we're singing the same tune we sang last year at around this time. It's not about what he can't do—the appeal to Cauley-Stein stems from what he can do, which few others are capable of matching.
He has the ability to impact a game without needing the ball. Finishing, rebounding, shot-blocking—though simple, Cauley-Stein's core strengths hold plenty of value in the NBA, particularly when they're driven by 7'0" size and world-class athleticism.
Despite a limited offensive skill set, he's still a terrific finisher and high-percentage target off drive-and-dumps and pick-and-rolls.
And in terms of rebounding and defense, as long as he keeps his motor charged, loose balls will naturally find him, and shot-blocking opportunities will be there.
In Kentucky's loaded frontcourt lineup, we'll probably see Cauley-Stein put up pedestrian numbers once again. But that shouldn't crush the NBA interest.
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