What's Next for 2015 NBA Restricted Free Agents Without Contract Extensions?
Now that the NBA's Oct. 31 deadline to extend fourth-year players has passed, the future of some of the league's most prized youngsters will be tied to next summer's restricted free-agent signing period.
Officially, teams that failed to reach agreements will now be required to extend qualifying offers next summer in order to bestow restricted status upon players slated to reach free agency.
Once qualifying offers are extended, a player's previous employer then retains the right to match any offer within three days of an offer sheet being signed.
So while Alec Burks, Kemba Walker, Kenneth Faried, Klay Thompson and Ricky Rubio, among others, will avoid painstaking negotiations during the 2015 offseason, a pool of young, potential-laden players must now rise to the occasion and prove they're worth long-term commitments.
With players like Jimmy Butler, Reggie Jackson and Kawhi Leonard looking to earn raises, we've explored where each key restricted free agent stands and predicted if they will stay or go when free agency gets underway next summer.
Jimmy Butler, SG, Chicago Bulls
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Jimmy Butler may not have received a contract extension at the Oct. 31 deadline, but he's going to get paid in a big way when free agency rolls around next summer.
As the Chicago Bulls' home-opening loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers indicated, Tom Thibodeau's club needs its defensive ace active on the perimeter in order to slow down the Eastern Conference's elite clubs.
Sans Butler, LeBron James torched the Bulls to the tune of 36 points, eight rebounds, four assists and four steals in a 114-108 overtime victory.
Fortunately for Chicago, Butler's focus isn't about cashing in on the open market.
Instead, he appears ready to re-up with the Bulls when next summer's signing period rolls around, according to the Chicago Tribune's K.C. Johnson.
"Yeah, get your mic closer," Butler said. "People say I'm chasing money when that's not it. Because I'm going to be in Chicago. I say that with a smile on my face because I know that for a fact. We'll resume (negotiations) back in July."
Butler then followed up that bold declaration with another:
"This is still home," he said, according to Johnson. "These are still my guys. This is the team I want to be on. This is the city I want to represent. And that all comes down from the management and ownership, so a lot of respect for everybody that's helped me through the whole process."
Although Butler ultimately rejected the Bulls' final offer, according to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, it's an overwhelmingly positive sign that he's making public statements regarding a return to the Windy City, as he tries to boost his value with a strong contract-year performance.
Verdict: Stay
Tobias Harris, SF/PF, Orlando Magic
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While the Orlando Magic wasted no time inking center Nikola Vucevic to a four-year, $53 million extension, Tobias Harris watched the league's contractual deadline come and go without signing an agreement.
According to Basketball Insiders' Alex Kennedy, extension talks were tabled in September after the Magic offered a deal that valued Harris' services at approximately $9 million annually:
"Just around Labor Day the Orlando Magic reached out to Harris’ camp to start the conversation offering up the idea of a deal in the $9 million per year range. Harris’ camp was seeking something more substantial. Those talks were cordial and ended without any sense of progress. The two sides never talked numbers or negotiated again.
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And according to Kennedy, Harris isn't blind to the magnitude of this season.
“I think it’s a big year for me,” Harris said. “Not just because I didn’t get an extension but because I work my tail off all summer to have a productive year for my team. It could happen like that and god willing it does but like I said, I’m just here for my teammates to help us win games.”
As the season progresses, Harris' play will be one of the more interesting subplots to track.
But after signing Channing Frye to a four-year, $32 million deal this summer, the Magic appear to be stocked at both forward positions.
Orlando also spent a lottery selection on Aaron Gordon and has young guns Moe Harkless and Andrew Nicholson comprising depth at the 3 and 4, respectively.
Fortunately, Harkless and Nicholson are both cost controlled under the rookie scale through at least 2015-16, at which point Orlando will need to decide whether it wants to extend qualifying offers.
At this early juncture, though, it would be smart to bet on Harris' return.
Now entering his first season as a full-time starter, the opportunity will present itself for Harris to establish himself as a two-way threat with nightly double-double potential who fits in seamlessly alongside Orlando's other evolving building blocks.
Verdict: Stay
Enes Kanter, C, Utah Jazz
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The Utah Jazz haven't been shy about paying to keep young talent in-house.
In the span of four mouths, Utah matched a $63 million offer sheet for swingman Gordon Hayward and extended shooting guard Alec Burks at $42 million over four years.
So is Enes Kanter next in line for a raise?
After failing to agree to terms on an extension, according to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, Kanter will formally become a restricted free agent next summer.
Which, quite frankly, may be the best course of action for both parties.
With a year to try and carve out a role in head coach Quin Snyder's offense, Kanter can solidify a position as Utah's center of the future.
However, superlative play from Kanter won't necessarily result in an extension.
While the Jazz have been shelling out to keep their young core in tact, Kanter may be viewed as the least valuable piece of a group that includes Trey Burke, Burks, Hayward, Dante Exum and Derrick Favors.
Particularly after Utah used a 2013 first-round pick on Rudy Gobert, a French big man possessing Gumby-like proportions.
So as Gobert works his way into a more significant rotational role this season, it's not crazy to think Kanter and the Jazz could amicably part ways next summer as the 22-year-old searches for long-term security.
Verdict: Go
Reggie Jackson, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder
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The Oklahoma City Thunder face quite the conundrum when it comes to paying point guard Reggie Jackson.
First, Oklahoma City needs to determine if Jackson is worth starting at the 2 alongside Russell Westbrook.
As Bleacher Report's Fred Katz indicated over the summer, that pairing has achieved tremendous offensive success in the past:
"In 395 regular-season minutes (subscription required) during which Westbrook and Jackson shared the floor, the Thunder outscored opponents by an outrageous 17.8 points per 100 possessions (commonly referred to as net rating). But that was still somewhat of a small sample size for a full season, especially considering Brooks only used the lineup in just 41 games because of Westbrook's knee injuries.
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If Oklahoma City decides that's the best course of action, then it would behoove Thunder general manager Sam Presti to extend a generous offer Jackson's way.
However, if Jackson is going to slide back into his role as the team's sixth man when Westbrook and Kevin Durant return from injury, the Thunder need to examine if it's worth paying a second-unit stalwart starter's money.
“Bottom line,” one NBA general manager told Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski. “How much are they willing to pay for Westbrook’s backup?”
And if the Thunder really do intend on relegating Jackson to the role of sixth man in a couple months, he may want to bolt.
“I want to be a starter,” Jackson told Basketball Insiders' Susan Bible. “I’ve always wanted to be a starter. I’ve always wanted to be great. All the greats I’ve seen started, so that’s kind of the mold.”
Considering Oklahoma City has a track record of not paying quality youngsters (hi, James Harden) in favor of avoiding the luxury tax, Jackson's in a precarious situation as he enters the most crucial year of his career.
Verdict: Go
Brandon Knight, PG, Milwaukee Bucks
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When the Charlotte Hornets agreed to terms on a four-year, $48 million extension with Kemba Walker, it raised a new question: Just how much will Milwaukee Bucks point man Brandon Knight be worth when he becomes a restricted free agent next summer?
With Walker's new deal paying out an average of $12 million annually (the same as Kyle Lowry) thanks to an impending increase in the salary cap, Brandon Knight is in line for a considerable raise.
And while his services may not be valued at $12 million per year, a deal that pays out somewhere between $9-10 million annually could represent an accurate appraisal of his worth to a Bucks team that needs a long-term solution at the point.
For what it's worth, Knight says he harbors no ill will toward the franchise after failing to agree to terms on an extension, per the Journal Sentinel's Charles F. Gardner:
"No...If we're going to revisit it, it's definitely not. I haven't really spoken a whole lot to my agents about it. They said they were talking. I love the Bucks. It's a great organization and we're continuing to improve as you see.
It's definitely something I would like to be a part of. When we revisit it in the future, hopefully it will work at that time.
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With the Giannis Antetokounmpo point-guard experiment being merely a facade, Knight and his 6'3'' frame feel like a natural fit in a Bucks offense that's in need of a steady off-the-dribble facilitator.
Verdict: Stay
Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Antonio Spurs
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Following his MVP performance in the NBA Finals, Kawhi Leonard seemed like a shoo-in for a max contract extension prior to the start of the 2014-15 season.
Expect the San Antonio Spurs didn't see things that way.
At least not yet.
With Leonard now destined for restricted free agency, it would be a major upset if a rival club didn't extend a max offer his way.
According to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, that's exactly what Leonard's agent, Brian Elfus, says he will be worth on the open market:
"We feel Kawhi is deserving of a max contract, and we are disappointed that something couldn’t get done. There’s no debating Kawhi’s value. The market has been set. He’s done everything the Spurs have asked of him, exceeded all of their expectations. Coach [Gregg] Popovich has gone out of his way to call Kawhi the future face of the franchise. We have great respect for the Spurs organization, but here, we simply agree to disagree.
There will be no shortage of teams interested in Kawhi’s services next year. There will be a lot of contract scenarios available to us, and we will explore them all.
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Fortunately, San Antonio will retain the right to match any offer Leonard does receive once they extend a qualifying offer his way.
And as Bleacher Report's Stephen Babb writes, Leonard's ability to facilitate so much success should keep him in tow well into the future:
"He may not offer any discounts, but this relationship has come too far for monetary matters to get in the way—which is one reason they probably won't when backs are up against the wall.
The Spurs' chances of avoiding a protracted rebuilding process likely hinge on keeping Leonard in silver and black. They'll pay what they have to pay.
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With the Spurs slowly transitioning out of the Tim Duncan era, it's imperative that they lock up Leonard regardless of how steep the price is.
Verdict: Stay
Iman Shumpert, SG, New York Knicks
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When the New York Knicks opted against signing Iman Shumpert to an extension, their financial motivations moving forward became abundantly clear.
According to ESPN New York's Ian Begley, the decision to let Shumpert become a restricted free agent revolved around the team's desire to maintain flexibility under the salary cap:
"Deciding against extending Shumpert and declining Larkin's option are both risks. Larkin and Shumpert could have strong seasons and end up signing with other teams in free agency.
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Obviously, that's a risk the Knicks are willing to take. It is also another sign that the organization is making free agency in 2015 and 2016 a top priority. Had they opted to pick up Larkin's option or extend Shumpert, the transaction would have eaten into their cap space in the summer of 2015 and, in Shumpert's case, 2016.
So with Shumpert potentially on the outs and the expiring contracts of Andre Bargnani and Amar'e Stoudemire set to open up a max-contract slot, the Knicks have the potential to make a major splash.
Also consider that Tim Hardaway Jr. will be entering the third year of his rookie-scale deal, and going with a more cost-effective strategy at the 2 could allow the Knicks to spend elsewhere.
Verdict: Go
Tristan Thompson, PF, Cleveland Cavaliers
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The Cleveland Cavaliers may have extended center Anderson Varejao with a three-year, $30 million deal, but that shouldn't stop Dan Gilbert from shelling out to retain the services of Tristan Thompson.
And considering Varejao's susceptibility to injuries—he hasn't appeared in more than 65 regular season games since 2009-10—the Cavaliers need to ensure they have plenty of frontcourt depth in the years ahead.
So far this season, Thompson has looked determined to earn that pay day.
Thriving in his role as the Cavaliers' primary energy provider off the bench, Thompson has crashed the boards with vigor, particularly in the team's first win against the Chicago Bulls.
In Cleveland's six-point overtime triumph, Thompson pulled down 13 rebounds—12 of which came on the offensive glass—while scoring 16 points in 36 minutes.
"Tristan does all the dirty work and he loves doing it," Dion Waiters said, according to Northeast Ohio Media Group's Chris Haynes. "The way he attacks the glass and hustles is what this team needs. He's a unique player we need desperately."
It's also worth noting Thompson's return could be aided by the fact that he shares an agent with LeBron James:
"It's no secret Thompson's agent, Rich Paul of Klutch Sports, also represents the one guy responsible for the bright lights returning to Quicken Loans Arena with the Cavaliers boasting a league-high 29 national televised games," Haynes wrote.
As Cleveland searches for ways to maintain and build its young core around James, look for Thompson to represent the Cavaliers' top priority next summer after Kevin Love's future with the franchise is cleared up.
Verdict: Stay
