UEFA Champions League Group a Complete Preview: Juventus vs Olympiakos
Tuesday is judgement day for Juventus in the UEFA Champions League. Failure to defeat Olympiakos at the Juventus Stadium will leave them looking at a difficult climb back into the top two in Group A. Without all three points, the Bianconeri could find themselves playing on Thursdays again in 2015.
The Italian leaders fell to the Greek giants in the last round and have looked far less formidable than in previous years, both at home and abroad.
Desperation, however, can bring something out of a team, especially one as talented as Juventus.
Can the Bianconeri get the points they need? Or will Olympiakos pull another surprise? Let's take a deeper look to see what this massive matchup will bring.
Tale of the Tape
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| Juventus | Olympiakos | |
| 1897 | Founded | 1925 |
| I Bianconeri | Nickname | Thrylos |
| Massimiliano Allegri | Coach | Michel |
| Gianluigi Buffon | Captain | Giannis Maniatis |
| 1 (8-1-1, 25 pts) | League Position | 2 (5-2-1, 17 pts) |
| 3 (1-0-2, 3 pts) | Group Position | 1 (2-0-1, 6 pts. Lead on head-to-head tiebreaker) |
| 30* (defending champion) | Domestic Titles | 41 (defending champion) |
UCL: 2 (last 1995-96) Europa: 3 (last 1992-93) | European Titles | UCL: 0 (Best finish: quarterfinal 1998-99) Europa: 0 |
5 | Head-to-Head Wins (2 draws) | 2 |
DL**WLW | Last 5 Matches | WW**WD***D |
*Official titles recognized by FIGC. Juventus still claims two titles stripped due to Calciopoli referee-tampering scandal.
**Champions League game
***Greek Cup game
Juventus Overview
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It's been a tough month for Juve. The Bianconeri lost two Champions League matches to Atletico Madrid and Olympiakos, drew against then-bottom side Sassuolo and lost their first league game since March against Genoa in the middle of last week. They did beat title rival Roma in a titanic head-to-head matchup, but the controversial nature of that match took the gloss off the victory.
There are small silver linings. The losses against Olympiakos and Genoa came largely due to heroic goalkeepeing performances from Roberto and Mattia Perin, respectively. They came on hard in the second half in all four games.
And—possibly most crucially—all four slip-ups were away games.
The Juventus Stadium has been a fortress since it opened in 2011. Since Sampdoria won a dead rubber on the last day of the 2012-13 season, no Italian team has claimed much so much as a point in Juve's palace. The only loss inflicted on them in European competition since the arena opened was the 2-0 loss to Bayern Munich that eliminated them from the Champions League quarterfinal two years ago.
Juventus has several injuries to deal with, but are still a strong enough side to take on any team—if they play at their best. The problem has been that their best hasn't been there much. That must change on Tuesday.
Olympiakos Overview
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It's likely that no one at Olympiakos expected to be sitting at the top of the group halfway through the stage. Their home form, however, has been spectacular. In two games at the Karaiskakis Stadium in the Champions League they have beaten both group favorites.
Their problem: now they have to travel to two of the toughest places in Europe to play. Considering that their previous travels in the Champions League produced a dud of a 2-0 loss to Malmo, going to the Juventus Stadium and the Vicente Calderon could see some real struggles.
The Greek champs are still a dangerous side, but they benefited in the last round from a Juventus team that was totally disjointed until the last 15 minutes of the game and a spectacular performance by their goalkeeper. If they force Juve into the early struggles they had last time around, they may be able to steal points. If Juve comes out determined, though, they're unlikely to hold for long.
Key Players: Juventus
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Carlos Tevez
Over the last two years Arturo Vidal has been the player that has put the team on his back and carried them. With the Chilean star still not quite at full fitness after nagging knee problems that started late last season, that mantle has passed over to Carlos Tevez.
The striker has finally been called back to the Argentinian national side and has been the best striker in Serie A over the last two seasons. Juventus is clearly a different team without him on the field.
A threat whether he's in the six yard box or 30 yards from goal, Tevez has shouldered much of Juve's scoring burden this year—perhaps too much. The failure of Fernando Llorente to fire at the beginning of the season has allowed opponents to key in on him, and with Vidal out of sorts and Paul Pogba yet to find his stroke in the other channel, there hasn't been anyone to pick up the slack.
Regardless of whether or not he gets help, Tevez will be the most important man on the field for Max Allegri's men. If he gets off the mark early, the Greeks will be in trouble.
Alvaro Morata
Were we talking about helping Carlos Tevez? Here comes that help.
Injured in a collision with third-string goalkeeper Rubinho on his first day of training, Morata is 100 percent fit and really should have been in the starting XI two weeks ago. Morata has more pace that Llorente and is far better with the ball at his feet. His sterling goal against Empoli—struck with his weak foot—was a sign of just how much potential the Real Madrid youth product has.
Morata started alongside Tevez in Piraeus and should do so again on Tuesday. More dynamic by far than Llorente, he could prove an even more potent partner than the former Bilbao man.
Giorgio Chiellini
Juve is hurting in the back, which will put even more pressure on Giorgio Chiellini to secure the defense in front of Gigi Buffon.
A perfect blend of Claudio Gentile's ferocity and Fabio Cannavaro's skill, Chiellini is one of the five best center-backs in the game today. He'll have to help neutralize Konstantinos Mitroglou and Alejandro Dominguez and give Juve the initiative.
Key Players: Olympiakos
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Roberto
Olympiakos got out of the game two weeks ago with three points almost solely because of Roberto Jimenez Gago.
He made three phenomenal saves in the final 15 minutes of the game, denying Alvaro Morata once and Carlos Tevez twice, once from point blank range.
Juve had the majority of possession in the away leg and the same should be true Tuesday. Juve hasn't turned that possession into shots too often, but when they do it tends to be in good spots. Roberto must be on his game if Olympiakos hopes to come out of this game with points.
Konstantinos Mitroglou
The team's best forward, Mitroglou assisted on Pajtim Kasami's winning goal in the 36th minute of the game in Piraeus.
Mitroglou isn't playing as well as he was at this time last season, when he played well enough to spark a bevy of transfer rumors that resulted in a sale to Fulham. Unfortunately he barely made an impact for the Cottagers due to injury, and Fulham wound up in the Championship this year.
Loaned back to his old club while Fulham tries to make a quick return to the Premier League, Mitroglou can turn any game on its head. Juve's defenders will need to keep tabs on his whereabouts at all time.
Eric Abidal
The former French international has found a home in Greece after his transfer from Monaco. He and Alberto Botia will try to wall off their goal from Juve's forward line. With Juve likely to be in possession for much of the game, he and his partner will have busy days.
Manager: Juventus
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When Massimiliano Allegri was appointed Juventus manager after the abrupt resignation of Antonio Conte in July, he chose to preserve the 3-5-2 formation that Conte had used to win three straight titles.
That was a pragmatic choice at the beginning of the season with little time to try work on new tactics. Unfortunately, it's becoming clearer and clearer that Allegri—who has never worked with this system before—doesn't know how to get the most out of it.
In Juve's recent 1-1 draw against Sassuolo and in the first match against Olympiakos Allegri switched to a 4-2-3-1 system and the team came alive. Only some great goalkeeping performances kept Juve off the scoreboard.
In a game Juve can't afford to lose, Allegri needs to do what he does best. A formation change should be made. He should also cede some of the possession that Juve can't seem to do anything with and utilize his team's excellent counterattacking abilities.
Allegri could very well be managing for his job Tuesday. Football Italia reported that Andrea Agnelli was livid at Juve's loss in Greece and is adamant that the team must reach the knockout stage. If Juve loses this game, that goal is in serious jeopardy—and Allegri may end up gone before his two-year contract is up.
That being considered, Allegri needs to use a system that he knows how to optimize on the field. If he keeps on using a formation and tactics that he is clearly unfamiliar with, Juve will be vulnerable.
Manager: Olympiakos
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A Real Madrid player for 14 years and the owner of 66 Spain caps, Michel took over Olympiakos in February of 2013 after holding a variety of managerial positions in Spain. Since joining the team he's won the Super League twice and the Greek Football Cup once.
In the Champions League this season he's lined the team up in a 4-3-3 and, against Juve, a 4-4-1-1. That 4-4-1-1 caused Juventus' three-man back line all sorts of problems in the first half. Dominguez had several chances before Kasami finally tucked away the game's only goal.
If Allegri uses the 3-5-2, look for Michel to attack Juve's flanks, which have tended to be weak against good wing play. Look as well for him to bottle up the center of the field and try to force Juve's playmaking wide, where they're not as strong.
Recent Matchups
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The game two weeks ago was the first time these two teams had played since 2003. In the first half, Juve controlled possession but posed no threat to the Olympiakos goal, whereas the Greeks produced some dangerous moves that just missed before finally going in front through Pajtim Kasami.
In the second half Juventus managed to take the initiative, and a formation change with about ten minutes left suddenly unleashed the full fury of the Bianconeri. Only Roberto's fine work in goal kept Juve out.
It was only Olympiakos' second win against Juve, who had won five and drawn two of their first eight. Juve have been involved in three two-legged ties with the Greeks and won them all. They did the double against them the last time they matched in the group stage in '03—including a 7-0 humiliation in Turin.
Key Matchup 1
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Roberto vs. Carlos Tevez
Usually we'd look at striker/defender matchups, but Tevez showed that he could get through Olympiakos' defense, especially late on. If not for Roberto, El Apache would have scored twice in that waning phase of the game.
Given that this game is on Juve's turf, it's reasonable to assume that Tevez is going to get a few good shots at the target. If Roberto can pull off the same moves he did at home, maybe the Greeks can come away with a result.
Roberto is a good keeper, but the vein of form he found two weeks ago was something rare. If he wants a clean sheet, he'll need to find it again. Tevez, on the other hand, has to be thinking that he couldn't possibly do it again.
Key Matchup 2
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Paul Pogba vs. Luka Milivojevic
Luka Milivojevic has played all 270 minutes of Olympiakos' Champions League campaign and has been stalwart in holding play. According to WhoScored.com, he has averaged 2.3 tackles and 1.7 interceptions per game this tournament.
He'll be an important piece Tuesday. Juve's vaunted midfield has been slowed by injuries of late, and Olympiakos can take advantage of that by utilizing Milivojevic to disrupt their rhythm.
The one regular midfielder that has been healthy so far this season is Paul Pogba—but he hasn't imposed his will on the midfield like we know he's capable of doing. He scored in the 1-1 draw against Sassuolo at the Mapei Stadium but has been largely anonymous since.
He now has a shiny new contract, and with Arturo Vidal and Andrea Pirlo still striving for full fitness he needs to take control of the midfield. If he's overpowered, Juve could be in trouble.
Prediction
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This game reminds me a lot of the game against Copenhagen and against Chelsea the year before that. Then as now, Juve is in a tight spot in the group and are facing a must-win home game.
Juve outscored their opponents 6-1 in those games.
I think that the desperation of Juve will show. Look for them to again produce when they absolutely have to.
Goal difference is also going to be a factor, so expect Juve to try to win by at least given the state of the group.
My prediction for this game is a 3-1 Juve victory.
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