2014 ATP BNP Paribas Masters: Winners and Losers from Paris
Novak Djokovic is the king of 2014's BNP Paribas Masters 1000 tournament. The world No. 1 virtually locked up his top ranking for the duration of the year by slamming Milos Raonic and putting more distance between himself and Roger Federer.
There were other important matches this past week, many with the promise to continue at London's WTF final, where the elite eight of the ATP will battle for one season-ending series of championship matches.
We also include commentary that looks a bit deeper into the stars and how they stack up with the past. Was 2014 a transitional year? Will we see more of Federer and Rafael Nadal making a bid for the top of the 2015 tennis season?
All this and more in this week's winners and losers column, where we look at ideas and trends surrounding the best players in tennis.
Loser: Roger Federer
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Roger Federer needed to be nearly perfect in October in order to claim the year-end No. 1 ranking in November. He almost made it as he won titles in Shanghai and Basel, but his quarterfinals loss at Paris will likely be the crucial piece for Novak Djokovic to win this award, unless the Serbian drops off the map in the next several days.
Had Federer won Paris, he would have kept Djokovic at 9610 points heading to London. More importantly, Federer would have pulled withing breathing distance at 9520. Instead, his quarterfinals loss stalled him at 8700 points.
Djokovic's title defense at Paris over Milos Raonic put the Serbian at 10,010 points, a huge edge for London.
It would have been another historic and unprecedented achievement had Federer pulled out the year-end No. 1 ranking with his first week at No. 1 for 2014 being the last possible week to collect points.
Federer would have also joined Ivan Lendl (1983) and Marcelo Rios (1998) as players who obtained the No. 1 ranking without a Grand Slam title figuring into the accumulated points.
No doubt Federer will still be eyeing a record seventh WTF title, and there still is a mathematical chance at No. 1.
Winner: Memorable Battles for No. 1
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We are not likely to see the year-end No. 1 drama produce a battle between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer in 2014, unless Djokovic gets shut out from winning his round-robin matches and Federer scorches the field to lift up the year-end trophy.
It will not be the kinds of battles in the early 1980s when Jimmy Connors, John McEnroe and Ivan Lendl rotated heroics as if they were spinning on a turntable.
For instance:
- Connors took the No. 1 ranking from McEnroe in September 1982 and held it for seven weeks.
- McEnroe grabbed it back for the first week of November.
- Connors took it a week later.
- McEnroe took No. 1 for the rest of the year, 11 weeks total into 1983.
- Connors took it the first week of February 1983.
- McEnroe grabbed it back for one week.
- Connors took it for the next two weeks.
- Lendl seized No. 1 the last day of February and held it 11 weeks until mid-May.
- Connors took it back for three weeks, the last time he would hold No. 1.
- McEnroe and Lendl then dueled for the next two years, McEnroe holding the title on the strength of an epic 1984.
- Lendl turned the tables on McEnroe for good by defeating him at the 1985 U.S. Open final. McEnroe would never return to the top.
- Lendl would dominate the next three years and the drama was over.
Tennis fans like chaos at the top as long as they are the best superstars. They have enjoyed Federer, Djokovic and Rafael Nadal dueling for top honors, but too much parity might not attract as much attention as the U.S. Open final ratings (Marin Cilic vs. Kei Nishikori) showed.
Loser: Stanislas Wawrinka
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It looks as if 2014 is the color negative to 2013 for Stanislas Wawrinka. He ended last year with a head of steam, narrowly missing the U.S. Open final and standing strong at the WTF final in London, which set up his brilliant run in capturing the 2014 Australian Open title.
Since his last big title at Monte Carlo last April, Wawrinka has slid back to the kind of play that had him typically ranked between No. 10-20 over previous years. Maybe this is merely Wawrinka back to being Wawrinka after a tremendous career surge that proved to be an outlier.
It's fair to say that after virtually qualifying for London by summer, he has backed his way into the second half of the year. He can't seem to win in his home country Switzerland, and now he is being pushed aside by rising newcomers who saw what Wawrinka did to upset the power structure at the top.
A bit of irony, but Wawrinka might be a victim of the monster he helped create.
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Winner: Milos Raonic
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After a few weeks battling illness, Milos Raonic had to wonder if he could get back, win and join the elite in London's WTF.
Mission accomplished.
Raonic's best match saw him dust off Roger Federer in straight sets in the quarterfinals at Paris. It was the first time in seven matches against Federer that he has come out a winner. He went on to the final before getting trounced by Novak Djokovic, 6-2, 6-3.
He also became the first Canadian and first player born in the 1990s to qualify for London, according to ATP World Tour.
Raonic will be dangerous on the fast indoors surface with his serve that will crack and boom. He has a bit of Andy Roddick in him when he is solid with his backhand and groundstrokes, but his footwork is not elite and he will have to do better with breakpoint chances (0 of 4) than he did against Djokovic, and must win more second serve points (7 of 19).
Loser: Grigor Dimitrov
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The 1990s child whom many thought would be the first to enter London will not appear in 2014. Like summer leaves, Grigor Dimitrov faded and fell, not dramatically but unable to defeat those ahead of him.
He did not deserve to go, even after three titles on three different surfaces, a Wimbledon semifinals appearance and the Australian Open quarterfinals.
The defining direction of Dimitrov's career could be 2015. While it's clear that he is not the second coming of Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal, there is time for him to lift his game and become a superstar.
But if it happens, he will likely need to break out next year. Can he win a major and contend for many more in the next half decade? Best-case scenario could see him chase the shadows of Novak Djokovic.
Right now, he looks more like a gifted version of players who have spent the past decade as second-tier also-rans, contending but watching bigger stars control the tennis universe.
Can Dimitrov do more than become the next Juan Martin del Potro, Tomas Berdych or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga? It's not bad company for now but a lot less than Andy Murray and leagues away from Novak Djokovic and his two big rivals.
Winner: Andy Murray
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Andy Murray did his best David Ferrer impression by playing seemingly every tennis match available for the past month. Along the way he dispatched Ferrer twice, took titles at Austria and Valencia, and charged into fifth place for the ATP Race to London, for which he has officially qualified.
Did this save the remainder of Murray's career? Had he faded away and not qualified, would we all be writing off his career?
Not exactly. For now it's a good sign that Murray has shown more of his toughness and scrappy attitude to play and win. He is proving that he can contend again, even if he is currently finding it difficult to defeat Novak Djokovic (losing seven of eight sets in 2014).
Since his back surgery late in 2013, it's been difficult to get a bead on Murray or to truly evaluate his progress. His rehabilitation and recovery have seemed slow only in comparison to the social media reports and expectations for those frustrated by a lack of information and layman's diagnosis of his condition.
What we do know is that Murray can only compete for Grand Slam titles when he is firing on all cylinders, unlike Djokovic, Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer who can still power to the finish line if one of their engines burns out. Murray needs every ounce of health and optimum play to compete for the top.
He still has a few more years to prove he can put it all together again, so there is time.
Loser: Rafael Nadal
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It was not surprising that Rafael Nadal pulled out of London to prepare for his appendicitis surgery. But this has never been his favorite time of the year anyway, and he has publicized his distaste for the fast indoor courts at the ATP World Tour Finals.
It's similar to what Bjorn Borg experienced during his early peak years in the 1970s. Borg was the best player in tennis at the most important times, dominating the French Open and Wimbledon but fading when the tour left Europe.
Borg would typically see rival Jimmy Connors amass points with the gusto of an overcharged David Ferrer to put away Borg by the end of the year for the No. 1 ranking. Connors won the year-end No. 1 ranking from 1974-1978 before Borg claimed the next two years for his only two stints with this honor.
Borg was the superior player, but Connors' affinity for hard courts was the difference, just as the year-end No. 1 must prove that he is the best hard courts player in the modern game.
Nadal, like Borg, is best with the biggest Grand Slam titles, but unless he contends at the U.S. Open, he must feel less than thrilled to watch other players celebrate on faster surfaces until he can get back outdoors in hot sunshine once again.
Winner: Novak Djokovic
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For all of the greatness of Novak Djokovic, his defining quality might be just how much he enjoys competing at the top. Whenever Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer lock into a Grand Slam run or No. 1 chase, Djokovic seems to light up and double down his own efforts.
Raw competition seems to bring out his best, and when challenged he responds.
The past week it was possible for Roger Federer to pass Novak Djokovic for the No. 1 ranking. Federer was upset in the quarterfinals, but regardless Djokovic plowed ahead with his best tennis in several weeks. He dominated Andy Murray, and he crushed Kei Nishikori and Milos Raonic by identical 6-2, 6-3 scores. He defended Paris and likely clinched his No. 1 ranking once again.
But if Nadal and Federer fade away in 2015, will Djokovic get bored? Like Jimmy Connors, he is willing to battle out several rivals for big stakes. Could he play like late 1980s Ivan Lendl and lap the field, or does he need to be pushed by his legendary rivals?
Which is why we have to love Djokovic at London. It's all about competition among the very best and this is what drives him.
Loser: David Ferrer
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Maybe you noticed a few David Ferrer comparisons in prior slides. It's a sort of tribute to what he has accomplished. Will we see another player quite like Ferrer? He lost out in trying to fight his way into the elite eight, but unlike Grigor Dimitrov, he did accept a bid to London to be an alternate.
One of the more interesting matches at Paris saw Ferrer outlast David Goffin, another pint-sized player with tennis gifts that are less appreciated because he does not possess the power and pop of larger and more powerful players.
In some ways, Goffin is a spiritual heir of Ferrer, though it's a long shot that he will one day reach the top five, let alone compete near the top for several years. He is one of those players who could have been a force several decades ago before the ATP tour became larger and more physical.
Other Ferrer-like players will come and go. Fabio Fognini seemed headed there in mid-summer 2013, but he does not have the composure or mental toughness to be resilient.
The sport is a grind, more of a marathon than a sprint, and it's just not easy to find another player with Ferrer's resilience and patience to compete at his best each time. It requires longevity.
So how about Kei Nishikori? His talent, defense, speed and shot-making might already be superior to Ferrer, but the question will be how durable he can be year after year.
We might not see another Ferrer any time soon.
Winner: Tennis in 2014
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There is plenty of time to completely appraise 2014 ATP tennis, but it was clearly a transitional year that had a bit of everything.
If you like the Big Three, they all had their moments to shine and dominate, even if none of them could completely deliver all that would satisfy their fan bases. Nadal won the French Open, proving that some things never change, and Federer and Djokovic delivered a classic final at Wimbledon, the cathedral of tennis performances and tradition.
If you like parity, you had to feel good for Stanislas Wawrinka bringing down his hammer on the Big Three dynasty. His Australian Open title paved visions for younger players to believe and win.
And now we have Milos Raonic, Grigor Dimitrov and Kei Nishikori establishing themselves as legitimate major contenders.
The biggest surprise might have been a few perfectly powerful matches from Marin Cilic. He simply overwhelmed Federer and Nishikori in the final two matches at the U.S. Open to take that major title, and he certainly changed his career potential.
Next week's WTF at London will prove fascinating, and it just may be the cornerstone to another level of changes in 2015.
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