10 Restricted Free Agents NBA Teams Should Target During 2015 Offseason
The Oct. 31 extension deadline for rising fourth-year NBA players featured some major fireworks, as Klay Thompson, Ricky Rubio and Alec Burks all reached agreements with only a few hours to spare. Those who failed to ink deals, on the other hand, now face the prospect of restricted free agency next summer.
Beyond the aforementioned three, Kyrie Irving, Kenneth Faried, Kemba Walker, Nikola Vucevic and Markieff and Marcus Morris all agreed upon extensions before the midnight deadline on Halloween evening. Many of those deals may look like overpays now, but with a boatload of new television revenue about to stuff the league's coffers, each one will likely wind up being a savvy investment.
All other members of the draft class of 2011, including the reigning NBA Finals MVP, now face a much more uncertain future. While their teams can match any offer sheets they receive next summer, the Dallas Mavericks proved with Chandler Parsons and the Houston Rockets this past offseason how restricted free agency can suddenly turn a squad's plans awry.
As teams get to work on their offseason plans for 2015, 10 players in particular stand out as the top restricted free-agent targets. They might not be major difference-makers on their current squads, but in the right situation, they could bust out as significant contributors in the coming years.
Many of these players' teams may be vocal about their plans to match any offer sheets they receive, but that doesn't mean other franchises shouldn't force them into backing up their words with action.
Note: Players are listed in alphabetical order.
Brandon Knight, PG, Milwaukee Bucks
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Brandon Knight has been a revelation for the surprisingly frisky Milwaukee Bucks this season, much to the delight of new head coach Jason Kidd. If he can maintain his hot start, he could wind up landing a deal in the $10-to-12-million-per-year range next summer as a restricted free agent.
Through eight games, Knight is averaging career highs in assists (6.9), rebounds (6.1), steals (1.4), field-goal percentage (.426), three-point shooting percentage (.407) and free-throw shooting (.878) in just 32.1 minutes per game. He's turning the ball over far too often (32 times in eight contests), but he's also a major reason why the Bucks have gone from a 15-win team last season to a 4-4 record this year.
"I know what I bring to the game and to the team," Knight told reporters after he failed to reach an extension agreement. "But at the end of the day, it's about being in the best situation. I felt for me and what the team is going through and what I'm going through as an individual, it will probably be better just to wait it out and play."
Knight's biggest problem in free agency will be the glut of quality point guards entrenched on their respective teams. Most franchises are already set at the position with either a veteran on a long-term deal or a promising rookie, which could limit the Kentucky product's asking price.
Assuming Knight's hot start isn't an early-season fluke bound for regression, it would behoove Milwaukee to lock him up for the long haul next summer. Otherwise, a point guard-needy squad like the Los Angeles Lakers, New York Knicks or Detroit Pistons could come swooping in with a big-money offer sheet and leave the rebuilding Bucks down one starting floor general.
Draymond Green, SF/PF, Golden State Warriors
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David Lee's strained left hamstring might wind up being a blessing in disguise for the new-look Golden State Warriors. With Lee sidelined, head coach Steve Kerr slid Draymond Green into the Dubs' starting 4 spot—a move perhaps a full year overdue.
Through Golden State's first seven games, Green was on pace for career-best averages in points (13.6), rebounds (7.1), assists (2.6), three-pointers (1.7), blocks (1.3), field-goal percentage (.457) and three-point shooting percentage (.429). He provides the Warriors with a true stretch 4, reminiscent of the four-out, one-in looks they used to topple the heavily favored Denver Nuggets in the 2013 playoffs.
Golden State has "every intention of keeping [Green]" next summer, per USA Today's Sam Amick, but the Michigan State product changed representation in preparation for his free agency. He recently signed with former NBA player B.J. Armstrong of the Wasserman Media Group, which Green described as "probably the biggest agency out there."
"[Armstrong is] someone who really knows the game, because I'm not going to come down and give you 20 [points] and 10 [rebounds] every night, so you may not always read in the stats what I do," Green told Amick. "Someone who really knows the game as well as B.J. does can really appreciate and sell what I do."
Unless the Warriors manage to trade Lee or Andre Iguodala between now and July 1, they'll almost assuredly enter luxury-tax territory by re-signing Green. If he remains the Dubs' starting 4 even after Lee returns to the lineup, an eight-figure offer sheet won't be out of the question next summer.
Enes Kanter, C, Utah Jazz
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Though the Utah Jazz inked guard Alec Burks to an extension just hours before the Oct. 31 deadline, center Enes Kanter wasn't so lucky. The team broke off negotiations with him two days before the deadline, which, given the offseason emergence of 7'1" behemoth Rudy Gobert, wasn't a major surprise.
"We have mutually agreed with Utah to concentrate on the season and look at our options again in the summer," Kanter's agent, Max Ergul, told Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski. "Enes likes Utah and the organization very much, and now he can concentrate on continuing to grow as a player and helping them win."
Kanter, the No. 3 overall pick from 2011, remains somewhat of an uncertainty in his fourth season. He averaged career highs in points (12.3), rebounds (7.5), assists (0.9) and free-throw attempts (2.6) last season, but as Basketball Insiders' Nate Duncan detailed, his defensive limitations have somewhat muddled his value:
"He does not protect the rim, is not quite quick enough to defend the pick and roll and has struggled on the defensive glass at times. Those limitations have been exacerbated by his lack of experience, as he has struggled to execute the system defensively and has not flashed much passing ability as yet. As a result, Kanter was among the worst regular players in the league last year by plus/minus metrics.
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With Burks, Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors all now signed to major extensions, it wouldn't be a huge surprise if Utah decided to build around the cheaper Gobert and allowed Kanter to walk in free agency. Accordingly, any team desperate for a potential-laden young center would be wise to toss a somewhat substantial offer sheet his way.
Iman Shumpert, SF, New York Knicks
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Unlike many of the impending restricted free agents featured here, Iman Shumpert failed to even engage his team in extension negotiations, according to Ian Begley of ESPNNewYork.com. The lack of any sort of talks caused Begley to speculate that the 2014-15 season will likely be Shump's final year with the New York Knicks.
"As one of the better young perimeter defenders in the league, Shumpert should draw interest in free agency," he wrote. "If he has a strong season with the Knicks, that interest—and the market for his services—will only increase."
The Knicks haven't been shy about their plans to preserve cap space over the next few seasons—particularly after Amar'e Stoudemire's contract expires following this season—to land a superstar partner for Carmelo Anthony. Re-signing Shumpert to a big-money extension would crimp their ability to score another star free agent, even if he is their best perimeter defender.
"He's one of my favorites because he's simply our best on-ball defender at the 2 position and also against the bigger 1s," team president Phil Jackson told ESPN.com's Charley Rosen. "Once he learns the intricacies of the offense, Iman will be able to create scoring opportunities for his teammates, and unlike last season, he'll know where his own shots will come from."
Through nine games, Shumpert is averaging 13.8 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.8 three-pointers on a career-best 50.5 percent shooting from the field. Assuming the hot start on offense is no fluke, the Georgia Tech product could be in line for a hefty payday next summer, even if it's not from the Knicks.
Jimmy Butler, SG/SF, Chicago Bulls
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Jimmy Butler is quickly emerging as one of the best young two-way wings in the league. As such, he's likely to become one of the most hotly pursued restricted free agents next summer—even if he has no intention of leaving the Chicago Bulls.
"People say I'm chasing money when that's not it," Butler told reporters on Nov. 1, one day after failing to reach an extension by the deadline. "Because I'm going to be in Chicago. I say that with a smile on my face because I know that for a fact. We'll resume (negotiations) back in July."
Sources told the Chicago Tribune's K.C. Johnson that the fourth-year forward passed on a "multiyear deal averaging $11 million." His agent, Happy Walters, explained to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, "We tried like heck to get something done, but ultimately, the Bulls wanted a 'hometown' discount."
Thus far, Butler's gamble appears to have been a wise one. Through six games, he's averaging career highs in points (19.5), rebounds (5.8), assists (3.3) and three-pointers (1.2) while shooting 50 percent overall and a career-best 38.9 percent from downtown.
He finished last season ranked fourth in steals (1.9 per game) and eighth in defensive win shares (4.6), earning a second-team NBA All-Defensive nod. If his offense continues catching up to his defense this season, he could be in line for a max offer sheet next summer, putting the Bulls in a precarious position.
Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Antonio Spurs
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Kawhi Leonard is the grand prize in the 2015 restricted-free-agent market. Accordingly, the San Antonio Spurs would be insane not to match any offer sheet—yes, even a five-year max contract—he receives next summer.
In a mailbag on NBA.com two summers ago, Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich predicted Leonard would eventually "be the face of the Spurs." Pop echoed those sentiments this past spring, telling reporters after San Antonio's Western Conference Finals-clinching Game 6 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder, "He's the future of the Spurs, partially because everyone else is older than dirt."
With Leonard on the court last season, San Antonio averaged 107.3 points per 100 possessions while only conceding 97.7 points per 100, the fifth-best net rating of any rotation player. His per-game regular-season averages of 12.8 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.0 assists didn't scream "future superstar," but his monster performance in the 2014 NBA Finals against Miami certainly did.
Leonard got off to a slow start this season, averaging just 9.5 points and 8.0 rebounds in his first four contests, before erupting for 26 points and 10 boards in an 89-85 victory over the Los Angeles Clippers on Nov. 10. Two nights before, he told Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News the eye infection that caused him to miss the season opener was still afflicting his vision in his right eye, which helps explain his uncharacteristically mediocre performances.
Though the extension between Leonard and San Antonio next summer is likely all but a formality, other teams would be insane not to extend an offer sheet regardless. The Spurs had financial reason not to ink him to an extension by the Oct. 31 deadline—namely, his skyrocketing cap hold could have limited their ability to improve elsewhere in free agency—so forcing San Antonio into a difficult decision would be a nice consolation prize for any franchise that can't steal Leonard away.
"I don't think I'm going anywhere," Leonard told USA Today's Sam Amick. "I mean they love me here...We'll see what happens next summer, but I'm pretty sure I'll be in a Spurs jersey for my whole life."
K.J. McDaniels, SG/SF, Philadelphia 76ers
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K.J. McDaniels, the No. 32 overall pick this past June, took a gamble by eschewing a long-term guaranteed contract in favor of a one-year, non-guaranteed deal. Through his first eight games, that gamble appears to be paying off.
Since general manager Sam Hinkie came on board last year, the Philadelphia 76ers have made a habit of signing second-round picks and undrafted free agents to four-year deals with the first two years guaranteed and team options in Years 3 and 4. McDaniels' agent, Mark Bartelstein, told Adrian Wojnarowski that he instead preferred allowing the market to set the value for his client next summer.
"The 76ers have a philosophy that they're adhering to, and we totally respect that, but it doesn't fit for K.J. and us," Bartelstein said. "I just totally disagree with the idea of doing a four-year deal that includes a structure of two non-guaranteed years."
Based on his early-season play, it appears as though McDaniels will be in for a major raise next summer. He's averaging 9.1 points, 2.1 rebounds and 1.6 blocks for the moribund 76ers, delivering at least one highlight play per night.
"In one of the most highly hyped drafts in recent memory, McDaniels is quickly proving to be one of the best in his class," Philly.com's Michael Kaskey-Blomain wrote. The 76ers aren't likely to let him go next summer, given their massive wealth of cap space, but teams in need of a two-way swingman would be wise to tender him an offer sheet and put Hinkie to the test.
Reggie Jackson, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder
8 of 10
Though the early-season injuries to Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were the Oklahoma City Thunder's worst nightmare, they opened the door for Reggie Jackson to earn a fat paycheck next summer.
Jackson missed OKC's first three games due to a twisted ankle he suffered during practice on Oct. 27, but he has been nothing short of sensational since returning to the lineup. Through six games, he's averaged 22.8 points, 7.5 assists, 4.0 rebounds and 1.8 three-pointers, all of which would shatter his previous career highs.
Jackson started 36 games for OKC last season, averaging 14.1 points, 5.1 dimes and 3.7 boards in Westbrook's absence, so his success as a starter this year isn't exactly unprecedented. These monster performances are only driving up his price in restricted free agency next summer, however.
According to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, "His offer sheet possibilities are climbing into the $13 million to $14 million range," with one Eastern Conference executive describing him as "a bigger Eric Bledsoe—and probably better." Jackson plans on pursuing a three-year deal with a player option on the final year, per Woj, to take advantage of the salary-cap spike in 2017 or 2018.
During the Thunder's media day, Jackson wasn't shy about discussing with reporters his desires to eventually become a starter, which raised some eyebrows in Oklahoma City. General manager Sam Presti will thus be confronted with a difficult situation next summer: balancing the desire to appease Kevin Durant against splurging on matching a massive offer sheet for the Boston College product.
Tobias Harris, SF, Orlando Magic
9 of 10
The Orlando Magic inked center Nikola Vucevic to a four-year, $53 million extension before the Oct. 31 deadline, but Tobias Harris wasn't able to secure a deal. Instead, he'll be in position to take advantage of a swelling salary cap next summer, where half the league could have $10 million or more in cap space.
According to Basketball Insiders' Alex Kennedy, the Magic reached out around Labor Day with "the idea of a deal in the $9 million per year range." Harris' camp "was seeking something more substantial," however, which led to the talks ending "without any sense of progress."
Harris told John Denton of the official team site that there were "no hard feelings at all" about the Magic's negotiation stance, and that he's "not worried about [free agency] at all." Kennedy reported the Magic have informed Harris' camp "that they would likely match any free agent offer sheet," as "they continue to say they can't envision Harris not being a part of their future."
As the Houston Rockets proved with Chandler Parsons this past summer, however, there's a difference between rhetoric and action when it comes to matching a restricted free agent's offer sheet. With Harris off to a hot start for Orlando, averaging career highs in points (16.9), rebounds (8.3), assists (1.7), steals (1.0) and three-pointers (0.8), he's likely to generate some significant free-agent interest.
According to ESPN's Chris Broussard, Harris' deal with Nike gives him an "upgrade" if he plays in New York, Los Angeles or Chicago, and Marc Berman of the New York Post reported that the Magic forward "has a lot of interest in his hometown Knicks." He'd be interchangeable with Carmelo Anthony at the 3 or the 4, which—while he's not the superstar-caliber player New York hopes to land—could entice the Knicks into throwing a major offer sheet his way.
Tristan Thompson, PF, Cleveland Cavaliers
10 of 10
A week before the Oct. 31 extension deadline, Tristan Thompson and the Cleveland Cavaliers had engaged in "zero discussion," according to Chris Haynes of the Northeast Ohio Media Group. Things escalated quickly from there, per Jason Lloyd of the Akron Beacon Journal, as there was a "sense of optimism" on Oct. 30 that the two sides would reach an agreement.
Ultimately, Thompson and the Cavs failed to agree upon a deal, while Cleveland handed Anderson Varejao a three-year, $30 million extension that same week. The fourth-year forward was reportedly pursuing "something around the $12 million-per-season extensions" of Denver's Kenneth Faried and Utah's Derrick Favors, per ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst.
Thompson is represented by Rich Paul—who just so happens to be LeBron James' agent—so league executives and agents were "watching how the Thompson talks play[ed] out as a gauge for how involved James [was] making himself in the team's front-office moves." Grantland's Zach Lowe believes Thompson to be a decent player but says he won't be worth anywhere near an eight-figure deal for Cleveland:
"Thompson is a solid player — a good guy who is well liked around the league. The Cavs should at least sniff out Thompson’s trade market for players at positions of need — a big guy, and a wing who fills at least half the '3-and-D' equation — before throwing big dollars at him. He’s a power forward, and Cleveland has two of the league’s 10 best overall players at that position.
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Thompson's per-game averages have unsurprisingly decreased with James and Kevin Love in tow, as his playing time has shrunk from 31.6 minutes per night last season to just 25.0 this year. Despite that, rival teams would be wise to submit a hefty offer sheet to Thompson and force Cleveland into a precarious situation, as the Cavs are already projected to be above the luxury tax without factoring him in.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics via NBA.com/Stats or Basketball-Reference.com and are current through Thursday, Nov. 13.
