Will Roger Federer Take over the No. 1 ATP Ranking from Novak Djokovic in 2014?

Here at the end of 2014, Roger Federer is in a familiar yet unexpected position: It's the second-to-last tournament of the year, and he could finish it ranked No. 1.

Only one very familiar foe stands in his way: Novak Djokovic.

Here's the basic scenario: If Federer wins the Paris Masters this week and Djokovic doesn't make it into the final, then Federer will become No. 1 for the first time since October of 2012, when Djokovic took the ranking from him, also at the Paris Masters.

Considering Federer is 33 years old and was ranked No. 8 after the Australian Open this year, that's a pretty impressive "if."

Of course the biggest prize of all, the year-end No. 1 ranking, won't be decided until the World Tour Finals in London next month, but a leg up after Paris would be significant, particularly for Federer who has been trailing Djokovic all season.

Ros Satar of LiveTennis.com thinks that Federer should be feeling pretty good about his chances this week:

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With 2500 points up for grabs (1000 in the Masters, and 1500 for the World Tour Finals), Djokovic must defend both titles, which could be a tough ask after taking a small break for the birth of his baby son.

Federer should feel confident of his chances of advancing to the Paris semi-finals—he has beaten [Milos] Raonic in each of their six previous meetings, including straight sets victories in their last three encounters. The Canadian has to effectively win in Paris to have any real chance of making his debut in the elite eight-man line-up

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Looking at the draws for both Federer and Djokovic, there is no doubt that Federer has the easier path in Bercy.

As Satar mentioned, he faces Raonic in the quarterfinals on Friday, and his 6-0 head-to-head advantage should leave him feeling pretty confident going into that one. 

Then, in the semifinals, Federer would meet either Tomas Berdych or Kevin Anderson. The Czech has given Federer some trouble throughout his career. But overall Federer leads the head-to-head 12-6 over Berdych, and he won their only meeting this year. Federer has beaten Anderson in both of their previous meetings.

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The 17-time major winner is certainly the favorite to make the final in the bottom half. Djokovic is the favorite in the top half as well, but it's not quite as straightforward for the new father.

He faces the always-dangerous and in-form Andy Murray in the quarterfinals, and if he manages to get past that test, he would face Kei Nishikori or David Ferrer in the semis. Ferrer has five wins in 18 matches against Djokovic but hasn't beaten the Serb in over three years. However, Nishikori leads the head-to-head over Djokovic 2-1, including a stunning win in the U.S. Open semifinals last month.

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If Djokovic and Federer do both make it to the final, Djokovic would be guaranteed to stay No. 1 for now, but he would certainly not be guaranteed the win—Federer leads their head-to-head 19-17 and just beat Djokovic in the semis of the Shanghai Masters earlier this month.

Then, of course, comes the World Tour Finals. With 1,500 points available and a round-robin format, anything can happen. 

While it's surprising to most that Federer's in this position, there's one person who claims he saw this coming: Djokovic. "I never thought that [Federer] wouldn’t be in competition for No. 1," he said, via ATPWorldTour.com:

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'I never ruled him out,' Djokovic told media on Monday at the Palais Omnisports in Paris. 'I always thought that he's one of the best players in the world, and he keeps on proving to everybody that he deserves to be there. I have lots of respect for what he does. I don't think that age is an issue for him. As a matter of fact, I think he's playing some of his best tennis this year.'

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Djokovic's claim that Federer's playing some of his best tennis might be a stretch, but that's only because Federer set the bar so high during his days of absolute dominance earlier in his career. 

In 2014, particularly in the latter half, Federer has been sensational. He made the finals of Wimbledon and Cincinnati back-to-back, losing to Djokovic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga respectively before winning at the Rogers Cup. He then lost to the Marin Cilic in the U.S. Open semis.

Since the U.S. Open, however, he's reached another gear, winning 14 straight matches and claiming two titles. 

So we know now that Federer can get to No. 1 by the end of Paris, and he can even get to No. 1 at the end of the year.

But will he? I think that given his good health, the way he's been playing and the question marks surrounding Djokovic and the rest of the field he will indeed.

Of course, that's just a prediction. We're just going to have to sit back and watch how the rest of the ATP World Tour season unfolds. If Federer has anything to say about it, it's going to be a historical ride.