NFL Picks and Predictions Week 9: The Ultimate Bettor's Guide

Nick KostosNov 1, 2014

Every Sunday night—at the conclusion of a wonderful day of gambling and debauchery worthy of #TeamDegenerate status—I sit down and guess the lines for the upcoming week's games.

Once that's done, I look at the opening lines and compare them to mine. And lo and behold, I ended up with a number of games that I really, really like this week.

And that makes me really, really nervous.

You see, most of the teams I like are also public favorites, meaning they're likely to burst into flames and lose in hideous fashion. But I can't go against my initial instincts. Right, wrong or indifferent, your boy sticks by his guns. And homie, I ain't about to stop now.

Maybe it's the bowl of Reese's Peanut Butter Cups I just ate, but I'm feeling good. I'm ready to roll. It's time to make that money, yo.

Here is my Ultimate Bettor's Guide for NFL Week 9.

All lines courtesy of OddsShark.com.

Total Season ATS: 64-55-3 (including New Orleans on Thursday night)

Total Season Best Bets ATS: 18-22

Thursday Night Football: New Orleans at Carolina

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Rogelio Solis/Associated Press

Final Score: New Orleans 28, Carolina 10 (New Orleans covers -3)

This game was decided early on.

Once the Panthers failed to cash in on a few early New Orleans turnovers, you knew it was a wrap. There was no way the Saints were losing.

As a result of their blowout victory, the hats and T-shirts can be printed: The Saints will win the NFC South. The Panthers, Buccaneers and Falcons all look like bigger contenders for a top-10 draft pick than for the division title.

The injection of a healthy Mark Ingram into the lineup has made all the difference for Sean Payton's offense. The bruising running back carried the ball 54 times in a five-day span and adds a much-needed element of physicality.

The Saints needed this win to serve as a launching pad for bigger and better things this year, and they got it.

Now go and win the Super Bowl, so I can cash in my plus-850 ticket. Cool, New Orleans? Cool.

Jacksonville at Cincinnati

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Michael Conroy/Associated Press

The Line: Jacksonville at Cincinnati (-10.5)

Giving up 10.5 points is a lot, but in this situation, I'm cool with it.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are an atrocious football team, and yeah, I am still mad at them for not covering last week against Miami. Despite thoroughly dominating the first half, the Jags couldn't get out of their own way and ended up outside the number.

Their quarterback, Blake Bortles, has become quite proficient at throwing back-breaking interceptions. And no, that's not a good thing.

Meanwhile, the Bengals are coming off a spirited, last-minute victory over the Ravens. They're in good spirits. Quarterback Andy Dalton saved the day and has garnered some momentum. And even without running back Giovani Bernard (and potentially without receiver A.J. Green), the Bengals should still be able to put points up on Jacksonville's defense.

Plus, there's a decent chance the Bengals defense outscores Jacksonville's offense.

This game has 27-10 Cincinnati written all over it.

For more on this game and the rest of the slate, peep my man Michael Schottey's Ultimate Guide to NFL Week 9.

The Pick: Cincinnati (-10.5)

Tampa Bay at Cleveland

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Reinhold Matay/Associated Press

The Line: Tampa Bay at Cleveland (-6.5)

Everyone and their mother like the Cleveland Browns to cover this spread.

I repeat: Everyone and their mother like the Cleveland Browns to cover this spread.

And you know what that means—the terrible Buccaneers be damned.

The Pick: Tampa Bay (+6.5)

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Arizona at Dallas

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Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

The Line: Arizona at Dallas (-3.5)

Remember last Monday night, when Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones traipsed onto the sideline in the fourth quarter of the team's game against Washington and whispered sweet nothings (aka "Get Tony Romo back in the damn game!") in coach Jason Garrett's ear?

Well, you might not know this, but there is a gambler's translation to Jones' comments:

Listen, Jason...We're playing Arizona on Sunday, and I want Romo out there for that game...You see, once he comes back in and puts himself at risk for further injury, it's going to increase the odds that we lose...And will make anyone who backs the Cardinals feel even better about their pick! No, you can't leave Brandon Weeden in...Listen, I'm going out after the game, and I have no time to listen to you complain. Do it, or you're fired! Good. See you on the flip side, it's time to get turned up!

Ladies and gentlemen, let's thank Jerry Jones for allowing us to wager on the Cardinals with confidence!

Whether it's a hobbled Romo wearing extra padding to support his twice-operated-on back or the atrocious Weeden, Dallas is ripe for the upset.

To hell with the points! Look for Bruce Arians' crew to go into Dallas and win the game outright.

The Pick: Arizona (+3.5)

Philadelphia at Houston

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Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

The Line: Philadelphia at Houston (+2)

The Houston Texans defense is a living, breathing juxtaposition.

One on hand, the unit contains end J.J. Watt, who is unquestionably the finest defensive player in the NFL. It also has end Jadeveon Clowney, the No. 1 overall pick of this past May's draft.

So, you'd think the defense would be pretty good, right?

Nah, yo. It ain't.

Houston's defense is currently ranked 30th overall. And when you're about to go up against Chip Kelly's Philadelphia Eagles, well, Houston, you best believe you got a problem.

Fantasy owners who have been cursing LeSean McCoy all season: Rejoice! This will be the game where Shady breaks out with a big-time performance. And I expect receiver Jeremy Maclin to torch what has been a suspect Texans secondary.

The Eagles should cruise to a double-digit victory.

The Pick: Philadelphia (-2)

NY Jets at Kansas City

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Colin E. Braley/Associated Press

The Line: NY Jets at Kansas City (-9.5)

Back in the days of the Roman Colosseum, men were forced to battle beasts to the death in front of a bloodthirsty crowd. And as you might expect, the beast's record matched that of the 1972 Dolphins.

On Sunday, the New York Jets will enter Arrowhead Stadium, but for all intents and purposes, it's their own personal Roman Colosseum. Gang Green will trot out Michael Vick at quarterback, which would be like fighting a lion with a rolled-up newspaper.

It's going to be brutal. Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston (pictured above), who leads the league in sacks with 10, is going to terrorize Vick throughout the game. And Vick will likely wear his Halloween costume on Sunday—that of a walking, talking turnover machine—which means the Chiefs will be presented with easy scoring opportunities.

The Jets are a raging dumpster fire, folks. Do you really want to plunk your hard-earned money down on Rex "Dead Man Walking" Ryan's hapless team?

No, of course you don't. Because like the crazed denizens who inhabited the Roman Colosseum, you only back winners.

On Sunday, the beast will win yet again.

I'm on the Chiefs with confidence.

The Pick: Kansas City (-9.5)

San Diego at Miami

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Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

The Line: San Diego at Miami (-2.5)

Sometimes, you have to go with your gut.

All the signs point toward the Miami Dolphins winning and covering the spread. Every single person who looked at the line and saw the Dolphins were favored surely had the same reaction: "Oh, man...I can't wait to bet on San Diego. The Chargers are really good, and the Dolphins are just OK. This is easy money!"

And here's the thing: That train of thought is both logical and reasonable.

But as we know, the casinos in Vegas didn't build themselves. When John Q. Public throws his collective support behind a team, mortgages are lost at the rate that stale candy gets passed out on Halloween. It's normally a bloodbath in favor of the books.

The smart move is to take the Dolphins and go against the public.

But I say to hell with the smart move. Damn Vegas and its fancy fountains and pool parties and beautiful women and blackjack tables and, OK, I still love Vegas, but you get the idea.

The Chargers are the better team with the better quarterback (Philip Rivers) and the better coach (Mike McCoy). When it comes down it, I trust Rivers and McCoy much more than I do Ryan Tannehill and Joe Philbin.

On Sunday, the public will rejoice. The San Diego Super Chargers will win.

The Pick: San Diego (+2.5)

Washington at Minnesota

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Reinhold Matay/Associated Press

The Line: Washington at Minnesota (PK)

Two bad teams and the line is a pick 'em?

Homie, I don't care if Robert Griffin III, Sammy Baugh, Joe Theismann or Mark Rypien is returning to start at quarterback for the Redskins.

If the line is a pick 'em between two bad teams, I'm grabbing the home squad.

The Pick: Minnesota (PK)

St. Louis at San Francisco

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Billy Hurst/Associated Press

The Line: St. Louis at San Francisco (-10)

Earlier this week, St. Louis Rams placed two critical members of their offense, left tackle Jake Long and receiver Brian Quick, on season-ending injured reserve.

Meanwhile, the San Francisco 49ers are well rested coming off their bye week.

At 2-5, the Rams' season is likely over.

At 4-3, the 49ers are in the thick of the hunt.

As faithful readers of this column know, I will often use a method to determine which side I want to back, and that's done by flipping the home and away teams. So if this game were in St. Louis, the 49ers would be minus-four.

And you're damn right I'd bang the 49ers at that number.

That means San Francisco is the pick.

The Pick: San Francisco (-10)

Denver at New England

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Steven Senne/Associated Press

The Line: Denver at New England (+3)

First off, if you're one of those haters who doesn't appreciate the greatness of Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady, then you're an awful human being, and there's a good chance you don't have a soul.

With both legendary passers advancing in age (Manning is 38, while Brady is 37), who knows how many more of these classic matchups we'll get?

That means this game is a must-play for any card-carrying member of #TeamDegenerate. These are the types of results you'll remember down the road. It's the main event of a loaded Week 9 card and will be one of the highlights of the season.

I'm inclined to grab the points with the Patriots as a home underdog. I am well-aware of Manning's greatness and freely acknowledge that the Broncos are the better overall team. But anytime I can get Bill Belichick and Brady at home as an underdog, I gotta grab them, yo.

Although the Patriots defense is banged up, you know Belichick will cook up some exotic schemes to confuse Manning. And all Brady has done since the Monday Night Massacre at Arrowhead in Week 4 is throw 14 touchdown passes against zero interceptions.

Expect Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski to reach the end zone twice in a close New England victory, and another chapter in this epic rivalry will be written.

Make sure you get your wagers in on time, peeps. You don't want to miss it.

The Pick: New England (+3)

Oakland at Seattle

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David Richard/Associated Press

The Line: Oakland at Seattle (-15)

I want to take the Seattle Seahawks so damn badly!

(Voice inside my head: Too many points...)

The Seahawks are close to unbeatable at home, and the Raiders would have a hard time going .500 in the SEC West!

(Too many points...)

Come on, Nick! Pull the trigger! Derek Carr isn't going into Seattle and keeping the game close! How is Oakland going to move the ball?

(Too many points...)

How is Oakland possibly going to contain Marshawn Lynch and the Seahawks offense?

(Too many points...)

All right, all right. You win, voice inside my head.

The Pick: Oakland (+15)

Sunday Night Football: Baltimore at Pittsburgh

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Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

The Line: Baltimore at Pittsburgh (+2)

When you're a grizzled gambler like me, your antennae raise when you see a line like this one.

Trust me: I've been through the ringer enough to see a sucker's bet when I see one. And I have to admit that the Steelers look like a sucker's bet in this game.

Pittsburgh is coming off back-to-back wins, including a thrashing of the Colts in which Ben Roethlisberger used cheat codes and threw six touchdown passes. And the Ravens just lost a heartbreaker in Cincinnati.

So how is it possible that the Ravens are favored—on the road, in prime time—against the Steelers?

There's only one logical answer: Vegas is trying to get us to bet on the Steelers.

Normally, I sprint in the other direction and back the books in situations like these. But I genuinely believe the Steelers will find a way to win this game.

Sucker's bet or not, I'm taking Pittsburgh. Don't let me down, homies.

The Pick: Pittsburgh (+2)

Monday Night Football: Indianapolis at NY Giants

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Matt Rourke/Associated Press

The Line: Indianapolis at NY Giants (+3.5)

In theory, Andrew Luck and the Colts should absolutely annihilate the Giants.

But in reality, this is the classic back-against-the-wall game that has defined the Tom Coughlin-era Giants.

Big Blue is 3-4 and coming off the bye week. The Giants sit two games behind both the Cowboys and Eagles in the NFC East. A loss in this game would be a devastating blow to their playoff hopes.

The home crowd will be wild. The game is in prime time. The team will be fired up.

There's no doubt that Luck will do his thang and put points on the board. But I'm supremely confident in Eli Manning matching Luck score for score and Giants rookie receiver Odell Beckham Jr. introducing himself to the country on national television.

Would I be shocked if Indianapolis won? Not in the slightest. But if it does, I don't think it will be by more than a field goal, which would keep the Giants inside the number.

Give me the desperate Giants to cover the spread.

The Pick: NY Giants (+3.5)