2015 MLB Free Agency: 4 Available Players Who Are About to Hit a Decline

The conclusion of the World Series on Wednesday means that free agency is nearly upon us.

This year’s free-agent class features three high-end pitchers in Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields, as well as a few middle-of-the-order hitters such as Hanley Ramirez, Victor Martinez and Pablo Sandoval.

However, there’s an even longer list of less notable players entering free agency, including Aaron Harang, Jed Lowrie, Colby Rasmus and Brandon McCarthy. While they could offer great value to the right team, they also come with considerable risk—usually as a result of injuries or underwhelming production in previous years.

With that in mind, here’s a look at four soon-to-be free agents that are either currently in a decline or likely to decline in the coming years. They should therefore be avoided by teams looking to make a meaningful upgrade during the offseason. 

Luke Gregerson, RHP

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Luke Gregerson has been one of the top setup guys in baseball since 2012, but his swinging-strike rate has steadily declined since then despite opposing hitters swinging at more pitches within the zone.

Those two worrisome trends are likely the result of the 30-year-old’s decreased use of his slider—his primary swing-and-miss offering—as he threw the pitch over 20 percent less often in 2014 (45.8 percent) than he did in 2012 (69.9 percent).

Any team considering whether to sign Gregerson this offseason will want to dig into the specific reasons behind his declining slider usage. The combination of his age and increased reliance on his fastball suggests he may be trying to mitigate a nagging arm injury. 

James Shields, RHP

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James Shields’ strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate have both declined quickly during his two years in Kansas City, though both trends have at least been partially offset by his improved walk rate and ability to keep the ball in the park.

The bigger issue is that Shields’ changeup simply isn't the weapon it once was. As a result, the 33-year-old threw the pitch nearly six percent less in 2014 than he did in his final year with the Tampa Bay Rays (2012).

It’s impossible to discuss Shields’ career without using terms such as “workhorse” and “durable.” He has logged at least 203 innings and 31 starts in every season dating back to 2007, and he’s improved that baseline to at least 227 innings and 33 starts over the last four years.

There are no obvious red flags with Shields as he enters free agency, but at the same time, it’s only natural to question how much longer he’ll be able to maintain such a heavy workload. 

Jed Lowrie, SS

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Jed Lowrie emerged in 2013 as one of baseball’s top shortstops behind a .290/.344/.446 batting line, 15 home runs and 80 runs scored. He also paced all American League players at the position with a 120 wRC-plus (adjusted runs created).

However, the 30-year-old switch-hitter’s power and overall production fell off in 2014—a particularly concerning trend considering his line-drive and fly-ball rates were similar to those he posted in 2013.

As a lefty, Lowrie didn't drive the ball like he did in 2013 and 2012. He also struggled with driving the ball the other way from the right side of the plate.

Based on Lowrie’s solid track record of production in recent years, an argument can be made that 2014 was merely a down year. However, given his age, injury history and average-at-best play at shortstop, there surely will be teams that err on the side of caution and avoid Lowrie. 

Billy Butler, DH

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Few hitters struggled as badly as Billy Butler did this year. The 28-year-old designated hitter posted a career-worst batting line of .271/.323/.379, walked less frequently than any other point in his career and failed to reach double-digit home runs for the first time since his 2007 rookie season.

If you’re looking for a reason why Butler continues to struggle to hit for power, look no further than the right-handed hitter’s high groundball rate. Butler’s 49.5 percent groundball rate this season would rank as the highest mark of his career had he not put the ball on the ground at a 53.1 percent clip in 2013.

That being said, Butler can still drive the ball from line to line and pile up his share of extra-base hits, but he’s just not hitting as many fly balls toward left field—his power field—as he once did.

Until he remembers how to turn on the ball and make contact out in front of the plate, it’s hard to see Butler regaining the thump he showed back in 2012.